Friday briefing: Taiwan prepares to vote
What is at stake in Taiwan’s elections?
Taiwan goes to the polls tomorrow to elect a new president and legislature. The world will be watching the election closely to see how it will affect the island’s relations with China and the US
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has demanded unification, which the island’s democracy has rejected. Tensions over Taiwan are one of the most divisive issues between Beijing and Washington.
To help us see what’s at stake in this election, Justin reached out to our colleague Chris Buckley, who lives in Taipei and reports on China and Taiwan.
Why are these elections important?
Chris: These elections could have important implications for one of the most difficult and volatile territorial disputes in the world: the future of Taiwan.
The presidential candidates of the two main political parties – the Democratic Progressive Party and the Nationalist Party – both reject the Chinese Communist Party’s framework for unification, called “one country, two systems.” But there are important differences in how they want to tackle Beijing.
Lai Ching-te, candidate of the Democratic Progressive Partyhas promised to keep China at bay. China probably would Increase the pressure on Taiwan if he wins. Nationalist Party candidate Hou Yu-ih says he will ease tensions with China by expanding cross-border trade and contacts. China would most likely reduce pressure – at least for a while – if he wins, but could also raise expectations of concessions.
What is the mood on the ground in Taiwan?
My Taiwanese colleagues and friends tell me that these elections feel less urgent than those of 2020 and 2016, even though they could have far-reaching consequences. In those previous elections, there was more concern about China’s intentions, especially in 2020, during Beijing’s major political crackdown in Hong Kong.
The other difference is that Taiwanese are now focusing on a range of domestic issues, such as housing, energy and employment. Sure, China still matters a lot, but voters say they want their next president to care, too more attention and money for solving home-grown problems.
What are the possible outcomes and what would they mean in the future?
Being fairly new to Taiwan – here for just over a year now – I keep pestering everyone I meet for their best guess at the outcome, and what you hear most often is that this will probably be a close outcome.
Whoever wins, the next president will have to work with a legislature in which it is very likely that no party will have a majority. That means the next president — and for now Lai still seems more likely — will face more obstacles in implementing policy.
Is there anything specific our readers should know about this topic?
I would like to remind readers of this year’s other election that is extremely important for Taiwan: the US presidential election. Of course, the outcome of that vote matters to the entire world. But Taiwan depends on the US as its main backer of security against China. A second Biden term would likely mean more of the same policies. If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee and wins, there will be much more uncertainty about where American policy will go.
For more: The gatherings in Taiwan are boisterous and filled with chants of “frozen garlic‘ – a pun on the phrase for ‘being chosen’.
It quoted Israeli officials, including the defense minister Yoav Gallant, who said Israel would completely siege Gaza because it was fighting “human animals.” Israel, which will present its defense today, said South Africa is overlooking the atrocities committed by Hamas in its October 7 attacks.
What’s next: Court decisions are binding, but there are few means of enforcement. A final ruling could take years.
In Iowa, a race for second place
On Monday, Iowa will hold its Republican caucuses — the first big test for the candidates running against President Biden. Donald Trump has chosen to skip all events that could test his comfortable lead. His rivals are fighting for second place.
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, appears to be in the lead over Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida. In the New Hampshire primary later this month, Haley finds herself within striking distance of Trump, who attacked her this week with the false claim that she is ineligible to be president because her Indian immigrant parents were not yet citizens when they arrived in South Africa. Carolina was born. .
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