Cindy Forms in the Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Storm Cindy formed late Thursday and became the third named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center estimates the storm had winds of 40 miles per hour, with higher wind gusts. Tropical disturbances with winds of 39 mph deserve a name. Once winds reach 74 mph, a storm becomes a hurricane, and at 111 mph, it becomes a major hurricane.

Cindy formed about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving northwest at about 14 miles per hour. “This general motion is expected to continue in the coming days,” the National Hurricane Center said an update released late Thursday. On the predicted track, the system is expected to remain well northeast of the northern Leeward Islands until early next week.

Cindy is actually the fourth tropical cyclone to reach tropical storm strength this year. The National Hurricane Center announced in May that it had assessed a storm that had formed off the northeastern United States in mid-January and determined it to be a subtropical storm, making it the first cyclone of the year in the Atlantic.

However, the storm was not retroactively named, making Arlene, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 2, the first named storm in the Atlantic basin this year. Then Bret formed on Monday and Thursday night, the center of that system approached the islands of St. Vincent and St. Lucia

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will run through November 30.

At the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near normal” number. There were 14 named storms last year, after two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons in which forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to back-up lists. (A record 30 named storms occurred in 2020.)

However, NOAA didn’t express much certainty in its forecast this year, saying there was a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and another 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. -normal season. normal season.

There was evidence of above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, which could fuel storms, and the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon. The monsoon season produces storm activity that can lead to some of the more powerful and longer-lasting Atlantic storms.

But forecasters also expect El Niño, the intermittent climate phenomenon that can have far-reaching effects on weather around the world, to develop this year. That could reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

“It’s a pretty rare condition to have both going on at the same time,” Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in May.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño increases the amount of wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface to the atmosphere. Hurricanes need calm environments to form, and the instability caused by increased wind shear makes those conditions less likely. (El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean, reducing the amount of wind shear.) Even in average or below average years, there’s a chance that a powerful storm will make landfall.

As global warming worsens, that probability increases. There is a solid consensus among scientists that hurricanes are becoming more powerful due to climate change. While there may be no more named storms in general, the likelihood of major hurricanes is increasing.

Climate change also affects the amount of rain storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, meaning a named storm can hold and produce more rain, as Hurricane Harvey did in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.

Researchers have also found that storms have slowed down and spent longer over areas in recent decades.

When a storm slows down over water, the amount of moisture the storm can absorb increases. When the storm slows overland, the amount of rain that falls in a single location increases; for example, in 2019, Hurricane Dorian slowed to a creep over the northwestern Bahamas, resulting in a total rainfall of 22.84 inches in Hope Town during the storm.

Other possible effects of climate change include greater storm surges, rapid intensification, and a wider range of tropical systems.

Livia Albeck-Ripka reporting contributed.