Why Trump seems less vulnerable on abortion than other Republicans

Donald J. Trump is showing surprising resilience on the abortion issue and appears less vulnerable than his fellow Republicans, despite his key role in shaping the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade.

A referendum in Ohio last Tuesday that guaranteed access to abortion and similar election results have boosted Democrats’ hopes that they could repeat these successes in 2024.

But Trump has held steady in recent surveys, even among voters who favor keeping abortion largely legal. President Biden, who has a large lead among those who want abortion to always be legal, led the “mostly legal” group by just one percentage point over Trump in the recent New York Times/Siena College surveys of battleground states.

Trump appears to have effectively neutralized abortion as an issue during the Republican primaries. It appears he wants to appeal to voters in the general election by being vague and trying to strike a middle ground that might allow voters to see what they want to see. And traditionally, in presidential elections, a relatively small portion of people will vote based on a particular social issue, even if that issue is abortion.

Voters who want abortion to be “largely legal” are about twice as likely to say they make voting decisions based on economic issues than on social issues such as abortion. The only group of voters in the six swing states for whom social issues are even nearly as important as economic issues are white, college-educated voters, and those voters are expected to make up a smaller share of the electorate in a presidential year than in a presidential year. low-turnout off-year elections, such as the Ohio abortion referendum.

According to Times polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, the share of voters who prioritize economic issues over social issues has increased by more than 12 percentage points in favor of the economy since the 2022 election.

Joel Graham, 49, of Grant County, Wisconsin, said he would like to see abortion access remain widespread: “In my mind, it’s not a politician’s choice, it’s a woman’s and a family’s choice.”

“If Trump is elected, I worry that there is a chance he will put more hardcore conservatives on the Supreme Court and they will take a tougher stance on abortion,” he said. Still, he says he plans to vote for Trump again because of his economic policies and concerns about the Biden administration’s foreign policy.

Mr. Trump has aligned himself on many sides of the abortion issue over the years. In 1999, as a member of the Reform Party, he said yes “Very pro-choice.” When he ran for office in 2016, he said women should be punished for having an abortion, and later took it back. Recently he has got all the credit on his social media platform because he was the one who ended the constitutional right to abortion in America: “I could kill Roe v. Wade.”

When pressed September He declined to give a definitive answer as to whether he would sign a federal abortion ban after 15 weeks. “I’m not going to say I would or wouldn’t do it,” he said.

Conservative Republicans, like evangelicals, have urged Mr. Trump to take a stronger stance against abortions, but evangelicals are among his biggest backers, and he is unlikely to lose their support. And for many Republicans who want some access to abortion, his lack of a clear position — combined with his apparent long-term indifference on the issue — has not been a problem.

“I’ve never seen Trump say anything about abortion; he doesn’t seem to care either way and that’s fine with me,” said one of the respondents, a 38-year-old woman from Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania, who spoke on condition of anonymity. She wanted abortion to be largely legal, she said, and planned to vote for Trump again.

With the possible exception of Nikki Haley, Trump’s opponents for the Republican nomination appeared to struggle to address changing views on abortion. Gov. Ron DeSantis largely avoided the topic during the campaign after signing a six-week abortion ban in Florida, a law that some members of his own party called extreme. Mr. Trump called it “a terrible mistake.”

Mr. DeSantis came out quietly support of a 15-week federal abortion ban earlier this year, after months of dodging questions, and criticized Mr. Trump: “Pro-lifers should know he is preparing to sell you out.”

But Trump has distanced himself from more restrictive abortion laws, favored by some in his party, and appears to recognize their unpopularity. Half of swing state voters oppose a 15-week federal abortion ban, while 42 percent are in favor. Voters who want abortion to be largely legal are fairly divided on a 15-week ban, with a small majority opposed.

For those who want abortion to become largely legal, Trump’s role in overturning Roe does not appear to be a major concern.

“I don’t think Trump was responsible for the Supreme Court’s decision,” said Michael Yott, a 37-year-old Detroit-area police officer. “I honestly think Trump is just in favor of fewer government and state rights, and that’s fine with me. Now that Roe is gone, it’s up to each state to create its own rules, and that’s fine.”

Mr Yott said he hoped some access to abortion would be maintained, especially in the early stages of pregnancy, but added: “My answer contradicts the position of the Republican candidates, but it simply does not stand that way high on my list of issues.”