Trump is tightening his grip on Capitol Hill as he pushes for nominations

For months, Senate Republicans have been working with Democrats on a deal they have described as a unique opportunity for a conservative border security bill, and for weeks they have hinted that they are tantalizingly close to an agreement.

Their timing couldn't have been worse.

As former President Donald J. Trump moves closer to becoming his party's presidential nominee and Republican lawmakers consolidate behind him, he is wielding a heavier hand than at any time since leaving office over his party's agenda in Congress. His outspoken opposition to the emerging border compromise has all but destroyed the measure's chances in a divided Congress as he once again puts his own hardline immigration policies at the center of his presidential campaign.

His shadow has always hung large over the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which has opened congressional investigations to defend him, launched an impeachment inquiry into his chief rival and passed legislation to counter the harsh immigration policies he imposed. to recover. But as Trump moves toward the party's 2024 nomination, his influence over the legislative agenda on Capitol Hill is expanding.

His “America First” approach to foreign policy has already helped undermine Republican Party support for sending aid to Ukraine for its war against Russian aggression, calling into question the fate of that money . That prompted Republicans to demand a crackdown on the borders in exchange for further funding for Kiev, a compromise that Trump has now rejected. He regularly consults with the inexperienced chairman Mike Johnson, giving his opinion on policy and politics. And his uncompromising approach has emboldened copycat politicians in Congress, such as Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida, who are helping fuel an ongoing gridlock over government spending.

For a Congress that has been struggling for more than a year with the bare minimum of legislation, Trump's dominance among Republicans is yet another obstacle to the functioning of the institution in an election year when his name will likely appear on the ballot.

Trump burst onto the national political stage in 2015 with a dark warning about dangerous immigrants invading the country's southern border and a slogan that outlasted them all in “Build the Wall.” More than eight years later, he rails against compromise, saying he won't take action at the border “unless we get EVERYTHING it takes to stop the INVASION.”

With more than half of Senate Republicans now officially backing Trump's bid for president, these pleas are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as talk from West Palm Beach.

On Wednesday, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader and champion of the nascent bipartisan border deal, acknowledged as much. He privately told Republicans that Trump's growing influence has complicated the politics of the border, dividing Republicans against each other on an issue that once united the party.

Republicans are “in a quandary,” McConnell said Wednesday during a closed-door meeting, according to lawmakers present. What was supposed to be a sweetener for conservatives opposed to sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine had become as politically treacherous territory as foreign aid itself, he acknowledged. Mr. McConnell himself sees the border deal as less important than sending military aid to Ukraine.

On Thursday, after members grew concerned that Mr. McConnell's message sounded the death knell for a potential deal, he made clear at a second meeting that he was still making progress on the border-Ukraine package. Still, the road is more treacherous than last year, before Trump started winning nominating contests.

Senators have been working on a border deal since just before Thanksgiving. But as the complicated talks continued, Trump began rallying delegates and pushing for the party to unite around him and his agenda. His allies in Congress are calling on their colleagues to treat him as the party's de facto leader and adhere to his policies.

Mr. Trump and Republicans in the House of Representatives want stricter immigration measures that have no chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate or being signed by President Biden. These include an end to parole allowing migrants to temporarily live and work in the United States without a visa while they await the outcome of their immigration claims, and a revival of the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which blocked their entry and kept them forced them to wait elsewhere.

Trump's influence over the agenda in Congress has sometimes been exaggerated, but he has always had far more power to derail matters than to help lawmakers find consensus. He was unable to help his chosen candidate for speaker, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, across the finish line in October after, for example, Kevin McCarthy was removed from the post. But he had the ability to undermine the bid of a lawmaker he opposed, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, with one mocking social media post.

Mr. McCarthy worked hard last year to keep Mr. Trump quiet as he negotiated a deal with Mr. Biden to avoid a federal debt default, aware that Mr. Trump had the power to push away some critical Republican votes to drag when he railed against it. . Mr. McCarthy was able to pass it with the support of a majority of the Republican Party, in part because Mr. Trump waited until it was signed to criticize it.

But Trump wasn't winning the nominating contests then, and austerity has never been the animating issue of his political identity.

Attacking Mr. Biden's handling of the border is already a key part of Mr. Trump's campaign. He has accused Mr. Biden of implementing an “open border” policy that allows terrorists and fentanyl to flow into the country, while promising to build “even more walls” along the southern border. A Trump campaign ad claims that Mr. Biden's immigration policies “increase the possibility of a Hamas attack” in the United States.

It is not yet clear whether Trump's political agenda will derail other opportunities for bipartisan legislation on Capitol Hill this year, whose prospects were already bleak given the election calendar and the dysfunction of the current Congress. Conservatives have already begun to oppose a bipartisan tax bill, the passage of which could be seen as a victory for Mr. Biden as it would expand the child tax credit. Mr Trump has yet to give his opinion.

On Thursday, Republican supporters of the border deal were outraged at the idea that Trump could potentially pull their hard-negotiated deal from the campaign trail.

“I think we need to have people here who support Trump, who have supported President Trump, go to him and tell him what a compelling case this is for someone who will probably be our next president of the United States,” he said. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina. 'Don't pretend that the policy is not strong. If you want to admit that you're just afraid to tell President Trump the truth, that's fine.”

Mr. Tillis said condemning the Senate proposal as too weak meant “you're either not paying attention or you're not telling the truth.”

Senator Mike Rounds, Republican of South Dakota, said Mr. Biden had a clear political problem at the southern border and “the politics would suggest that you let him cook in his own oil on this particular issue.”

He said the Senate still has an obligation to pass legislation to fortify the country's border, even if it would give Mr. Biden a political victory. That doesn't seem to be the position most of his colleagues take.

Senator Christopher S. Murphy, the Connecticut Democrat who has played a leading role in the negotiations, said Trump's opposition to the deal should not be a surprise.

“That's the cold, hard reality of Donald Trump, who sees the border only as a political issue, not a policy problem to be solved,” Murphy said.

Some far-right Republicans in the Senate, who are deeply opposed to the emerging deal, accused Mr. McConnell of trying to blame its demise on Mr. Trump. Senator Ron Johnson, Republican of Wisconsin, said Mr. McConnell was “trying to shift the blame to President Trump for what I would say are failed negotiations.”

Senator J.D. Vance, Republican of Ohio, said it was shortsighted to send a “weak sauce” border security bill to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Johnson has suggested it would be dead on arrival. That strategy, Mr. Vance said, “allows the president to blame 'MAGA' Republicans for the failure of a border security package, when in reality the failure was a very weak border security package that actually did nothing.”

Karoun Demirjian And Carl Hulse reporting contributed.