As the Turkish mood looms, Erdogan loyalists cannot imagine anyone else in charge

Memis Akbulut, a mobile phone salesman, listed the reasons why President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could count on his support on Sunday in elections that could drastically change the course of the country: He is charismatic, a world leader who has strengthened Turkey’s defenses and fought terrorism.

And thanks to an ordinance passed by Mr Erdogan in the months leading up to the vote, Mr Akbulut will soon receive an early retirement from the government – ​​at the age of 46.

“Everything is a 10,” he said recently in the central city of Kayseri. “I will vote for the president,” he added. “Is there anyone?”

The presidential and parliamentary elections will be Erdogan’s toughest electoral battle in his two decades as Turkey’s leading politician. A cost-of-living crisis has angered many voters and his administration has been accused of mishandling the initial response to catastrophic earthquakes in February. Recent polls point to a close race – and perhaps even defeat – for Erdogan.

The political opposition has formed a broad coalition to oust him. Six parties back a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former public servant who has vowed to undo Erdogan’s legacy and restore democracy in Turkey.

Erdogan’s die-hard supporters, who according to polls make up about a third of the electorate, see no reason for Turkey to change course. They love the president’s nationalistic bombast, religious outlook and vows to stand up for the country against a range of forces they see as threats, including terrorist organizations, gay rights activists, the United States and NATO.

“Erdogan has managed to build a close relationship with his electorate over the past 20 years,” said Akif Beki, a former adviser to the president who broke with him and his ruling party.

Others have benefited in concrete ways, politically or financially, from ties to Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, also known as the AKP, Beki said.

“A new class has emerged in its 20 years, and their interests overlap those of Erdogan,” said Mr. Beki. “It expects them to go against their interests to expect them to go against the AKP and Mr. Erdogan.”

Mr. Erdogan’s critics note that Turkey’s gross domestic product began to decline about a decade ago, and annual inflation, which exceeded 80 percent last year, has left many Turks feeling poorer. Most economists say Erdogan’s unorthodox financial policies have exacerbated the crisis.

During his years in power, the president has consolidated his control over much of the state, propelling Turkey toward autocracy, while frustrating the United States and other NATO allies by maintaining a close relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine last year.

Kayseri, in central Turkey, has long been a stronghold of Erdogan, voting for him and his party, often overwhelmingly, in every election since 2002. Recent interviews with more than two dozen voters there showed that many still admire his leadership while others just can’t imagine anyone else in charge.

When Mr. Erdogan emerged on the national scene in 2003 as a young, dynamic prime minister, he and his party promised competent governance, reliable services and economic growth.

And for years they delivered it.

Turks’ incomes rose as their cities became cleaner and better organized. Between 2003 and 2013, the national economy tripled, new hospitals, airports and highways were built across the country, and voters rewarded Erdogan at the polls, leading him to be elected president in 2014 and 2018.

Kayseri, an industrial city of 1.4 million in the shadow of a snowy peak, benefited during the Erdogan era and developed into an attractive city, with metro and tram lines, universities and factories producing everything from shipping containers to furniture – much of it for export.

Sevda Ak, a supporter of Erdogan, acknowledged that high inflation had damaged her family’s purchasing power. But she counted on Mr. Erdogan to solve it.

“If we shop for one child, we can’t shop for another,” says Ms Ak, 38 and a mother of three. “But it is still Erdogan who can solve it.”

Her sister, Ayse Ozer, 32, credited Mr Erdogan with developing the country but said he had to crack down on merchants she accused of inflating prices.

In contrast, Mr Erdogan’s critics accuse him of weakening Turkish democracy. And many in the West see him as a troubled partner, a leader of a NATO country who disapproved of the alliance’s plans to expand after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has waited many months to admit Finland into the alliance, but has still refused to admit Sweden.

However, Mr Erdogan’s most loyal followers see those actions as signs of strength.

“He doesn’t bow to anyone,” says Mustafa Akel, 48, a worker at a door factory. “He built ships. He built drones. If he leaves, the one who will replace him will go to work to line his own pockets.”

He acknowledged that Mr Erdogan had also benefited during his time in power. But it does not matter.

“I don’t think anyone else can rule this country,” he said.

Nor did many voters in Kayseri blame Erdogan’s government for its initially slow response to the February 6 earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people in southern Turkey. The high death toll raised questions about whether his emphasis on new construction ignored regulations intended to make buildings safe.

“They tried their best and are still doing it,” says Rukiye Yozgat, 35.

Ms. Yozgat also praised Mr. Erdogan for granting more rights to religious women like her, recalling that when she started university in 2009, she was forbidden to wear a headscarf on campus.

Although it is a predominantly Muslim country, Turkey was founded in 1923 as a secular republic that tried to keep religion out of public life by, for example, banning women in government positions from wearing headscarves. Mr. Erdogan has branded himself as the defender of the pious and expanded the role of religion in public life, pushing for the expansion of Islamic education and the relaxation of rules such as the headscarf ban, which has won him the support of many religious voters. has delivered.

In the months leading up to the vote, Erdogan also used the power of his office to appeal to voters and mitigate the effects of inflation by raising the minimum wage, raising civil servants’ salaries and changing pension plans, so that millions employees to take early retirement.

And in recent weeks he has appealed to national pride in ways that appeal to many Turks.

He had a new Turkish-built warship, the TCG Anadolu, jetty in the center of Istanbul, where voters could walk aboard. He became the first owner of the first electric car built in Turkey. Via a video link, he welcomed the first delivery of fuel to a Russian-built nuclear power plant near the Mediterranean Sea. He announced the start of production of Turkish natural gas in the Black Sea and promised free deliveries to Turkish homes.

Few voters in Kayseri seemed impressed by the opposition and many doubted that the six parties could work together effectively.

Askin Genc, ​​a parliamentary candidate for the opposition Republican People’s Party, said he expected the economy to provide an opening for the opposition.

“The cost of living will have an effect on the ballot box,” he said.

The opposition also hoped to attract young voters, he said. About six million young Turks, out of 60.6 million eligible voters, will be able to vote for the first time, and analysts say Erdogan has struggled to seduce them.

Many voters expressed frustration with Erdogan’s stewardship of the economy, but few said it would move them to the opposition.

Ali Durdu, who was shopping at an open-air market with his family, said he had long voted for Erdogan but loved high prices and would sit out this election. His wife, Merve, was also angry with Mr Erdogan, but would vote for him anyway.

“Erdogan has his faults,” she said. “But he’s the best of the worst.”