Erdogan’s grip on power is dented but not broken, votes show

ANKARA, Turkey – High inflation made his people feel poorer. His government was accused of bungling its response to catastrophic earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people just three months ago. And he faced a newly united opposition that promised to reverse his steady inclination towards one-man rule.

Despite all that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came out ahead of his main challenger in the Turkish elections, according to official results released Monday. While he narrowly missed out on an outright majority and sent the country to a runoff on May 28, there are strong signs pointing to another Erdogan victory in that vote.

“For Erdogan, this is his biggest final,” said Mehmet Ali Kulat, a prominent Turkish pollster who had predicted stronger opposition action.

With almost all votes counted on Monday, official preliminary results gave Erdogan 49.5 percent of the vote to 44.9 percent for his main challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, got 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are more likely to vote for Erdogan in the second round, analysts say. Finally, Erdogan’s party and its allies maintained an impressive majority in the parliamentary vote, likely increasing his chances of being re-elected.

Many Turkish news outlets are owned by pro-Erdogan businessmen, who ensured they provided a steady stream of lavish coverage, with little regard for allegations of corruption or government error. The government has forced some critical news organizations to close, fined others for their reporting and prosecuted some journalists. The Reporters Without Borders group ranks Turkey 165th in press freedom from 180 countries it scores.

The opposition did not officially recognize Erdogan’s lead and did not dispute the numbers, but said they would work to win the second round.

“We will stand up and fight this election together,” Kilicdaroglu wrote on Twitter on Monday. “In the end, it will only be what our nation says.”

In his 20 years as Turkey’s dominant political leader, first as Prime Minister, then as President, Mr. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party regularly defeated their opponents at the polls. The last time Erdogan ran for office in 2018, he won 52 percent of the vote in the first round, beating the closest of his three challengers by 22 percentage points. This time he fared worse, leading to the first presidential runoff in Turkish history.

Voter turnout across the country on Sunday was nearly 89 percent, underlining the high confidence of Turks in the election.

Mr Erdogan faced significant headwinds going into the vote.

Turkey has been battling a declining currency since 2018 and painful inflation that topped 80 percent annualized last year and stood at 44 percent in April.

His opponents united in an unprecedented six-party coalition supporting Mr Kilicdaroglu. Throughout the campaign, the opposition courted voters by promising to restore the economy, restore civil liberties and build a more inclusive society, a stark contrast to Erdogan’s often polarizing rhetoric.

But that wasn’t enough.

Analysts described the results as just the latest example of Erdogan’s formidable survival skills.

Mr Kulat said the February 6 earthquakes had helped Mr Erdogan in unexpected ways. The massive devastation has not only left large numbers of people homeless, but has also put pressure on communities outside the affected area by driving up rents. That heightened the appeal of Erdogan’s campaign promises to build new houses in the earthquake zone within a year.

“The citizens said, ‘If anyone can build me a house, it’s Erdogan,'” Mr. Kulat.

But Mr. Erdogan also used his power to tilt the competition in his favor. And as the incumbent in a system with little control over presidential power, Mr. Erdogan effectively used the state as his campaign machine, dishing out new benefits to voters from the national purse.

Mr Erdogan campaigned by portraying his opponents as incompetent, backed by a Western conspiracy and in cahoots with terrorists. He looked for opportunities to connect in the minds of voters to images of growing Turkish power and independence, parked a warship in the center of Istanbul for families to visit and became the first owner of a Turkish-built electric car.

And he and his ministers sold him as the defender of religious Turks, fueling their fears by telling them the opposition was trying to take away their newfound freedoms and expand gay rights. While a predominantly Muslim society, Turkey was founded as an staunchly secular state that kept most outward signs of religion out of public life. Mr Erdogan relaxed some of those rules, including a ban on women in state positions from wearing headscarves.

Those issues seemed to have kept enough voters on board to put Erdogan in charge.

“Political identification is very ‘sticky,’ and is not easily undone because of new information or experience,” Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of history at St. Lawrence University, wrote in an email. “Erdogan’s emphasis on nationalism, terrorism and nefarious Western plots is not window dressing for many voters: it is at the core of their worldview.”

Contrary to what Erdogan could offer voters, the opposition could only make promises.

To build his following, Mr. Kilicdaroglu six parties together, including right-wing nationalists, staunch secularists and Islamists, an achievement in itself. But many voters wondered how such a broad coalition would hold together, let alone run the country.

“Despite frustration with the economy and the impact of the earthquakes, many people did not think an opposition coalition — especially one with internal ideological divisions and personal power struggles — would be able to govern effectively,” said Lisel Hintz, an assistant professor of of international relations from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

That Mr Kilicdaroglu comes from a religious minority is also likely to have turned some voters off, Ms Hintz said. He is an Alevi, a member of a heterodox Muslim sect that is looked down upon by some members of Turkey’s Sunni Muslim majority.

“It is likely that some Sunnis did not want to vote for an Alevi,” Ms Hintz said.

While none of the voters interviewed in recent weeks openly expressed such sentiments, many expressed concern for another minority group and criticized the opposition for collaborating with Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party, which is tantamount to allying with terrorists.

Turkey has waged a long and deadly battle against Kurdish militants who are considered terrorists by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. The Turkish government often accuses Kurdish politicians of collaborating with the militants, and many of them have been imprisoned, prosecuted or removed from office over such allegations.

Mr Erdogan has played on fears of such ties, and many voters see the opposition as sympathetic to militancy.

“I’m afraid the other party will win and that would be bad for the country,” Melike Kurt, a recent university graduate, said after voting for Erdogan on Sunday. She spoke specifically about concerns that people imprisoned on terrorism charges will be released.

As a devout woman who wore a headscarf, she also praised Erdogan for championing women like her to dress as they please, and feared that an opposition government would revoke those rights in the name of the state’s secularism.

“I can’t imagine the situation we would be in if we lost,” said Ms Kurt, 24. “I believe our freedoms would be limited if they won, in terms of headscarves and other issues.”

Safak Timur contributed reporting from Ankara and Gulsin Harman from Istanbul.