As Ukrainian attacks intensify, US officials see signs of a counter-offensive

Ukrainian forces have stepped up artillery and ground assaults in a flurry of military activity that US officials suggested on Monday could be a signal that Kiev’s long-planned counter-offensive against Russia has begun.

The fighting, which began on Sunday, raged along several points on the frontline, but further east of where many analysts had expected Ukraine’s counter-offensive to begin. Even if the battle had started in that eastern area, Kiev’s troops would be able to achieve the same goal: move south to the Sea of ​​Azov and cut the land bridge connecting occupied Crimea to mainland Russia.

Russia’s defense ministry said on Monday that a major Ukrainian operation had begun in five locations in the eastern Donetsk region and that it had repelled the attacks and inflicted casualties on Ukrainian forces. Moscow’s report could not be independently confirmed.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister Hanna Malyar said on the Telegram messaging app that Kiev’s armed forces are “turning to offensive actions” in some areas in the war that began when Russia invaded its neighbor 15 months ago. But she did not say it was a decisive new phase in the war.

“A defensive operation encompasses everything,” she said, “including counter-offensive actions.”

Pro-Russian bloggers noted that a strong Ukrainian attack had begun on Monday morning near the town of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a pro-Russian blogger writing under the pseudonym Rybar, described intense fighting as Ukrainian soldiers in German-made Leopard tanks seized control of the village of Novodonetske on Monday evening, a possible sign that Kiev had pushed its NATO-trained forces . in battle.

He said the battles were contested “under heavy artillery fire”.

Aleksandr Khodakovsky, the commander of a Russian proxy group, also described seeing Leopard tanks during the fighting near Novodonetske, where, he said, Ukrainian troops had “sensed our weak spots”.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in his nightly speech, expressed his gratitude to “all our defenders who brought us the news we expect”.

“We see how hysterically Russia observes every step we take there, every position we take,” he added. “The enemy knows that Ukraine will win. They see it. They feel it thanks to your strikes, soldiers, and especially in the Donetsk region.”

Ukraine has long said it will not make a formal announcement about the start of its counter-offensive. And Ukrainian officials have not told their American counterparts exactly when the battles will begin, but have given them a timetable for when they plan to begin the advance against Russian forces. Sunday fell within that time frame, US officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

US officials based their assessment that Kiev’s counter-offensive had most likely begun in part on information from US military satellites, which had detected increased movement from Ukrainian military positions. The satellites have infrared capabilities to track artillery fire and missile launches.

US military analysts also said they believed Ukrainian units had launched an initial strike to determine the positions and strength of Russian forces — a traditional tactic that Americans had trained Ukrainian troops to use.

A US official said testing for potential weaknesses in Russian defenses, manpower and morale — what the US military calls “reconnaissance by force” — would most likely take several days. If successful, the official said, the main line of the Ukrainian counter-offensive would become clearer at that time.

US and Ukrainian officials would also be watching closely to see how Russia responds to these attacks along the front lines.

At the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he would not go beyond the statement of Ukrainian officials.

“What I can talk about is how hard we worked to prepare them to be ready,” Mr Kirby said. “The president is very confident that over the past seven, eight months or more, we’ve done everything we could to make sure they had the capabilities to be successful.”

Much depends on Kiev’s ability to regain territory lost to Russia since the start of the war. Ukrainian officials say they must act as quickly as possible to free people living under Russian occupation and subjected to abuses, including torture and the forced deportation of children to Russia.

Success could also support Ukraine’s push for longer-term commitments from the West for additional military aid and security guarantees. It could also strengthen Mr. Zelensky’s hand in any peace talks with Russia. Failure, or a lack of demonstrably rapid progress, could complicate Kiev’s push for additional security guarantees at a NATO summit this summer.

The frontline in southern and eastern Ukraine has been largely static for months, with the exception of heavy fighting in the eastern city of Bakhmut and operations by small Ukrainian units. In northeastern Ukraine, anti-Kremlin forces have been conducting cross-border raids into Russia since last month.

Weeks after Russian forces captured Bakhmut, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces said Monday that Kiev troops were making an advance near the devastated city, though the extent of any gains was unclear.

Tanks from an assault brigade destroyed enemy positions, its commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Telegram. The post also said Ukrainian troops had made progress in a small forested area during an assault on enemy positions.

Ms. Malyar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, said on Telegram that Bakhmut remained “the epicenter of hostilities”.

“There we go along a pretty broad front,” she continued, adding, “The enemy is on the defensive.”

One difficulty in determining the exact start of a counter-offensive is that the fighting may begin with feints or diversions. And to mount a successful counterattack after months of planning, Ukrainian forces must navigate largely over flat, unforgiving terrain and keep Russian defenses strong.

The operation is expected to involve thousands of Ukrainian troops, many of them equipped with newer and more advanced Western equipment, such as armored personnel carriers and tanks.

Western officials have long believed a counter-offensive would target southern Ukraine as part of a strategy to break the land bridge between western Russia and Crimea. But wherever Ukraine attacks along a front line hundreds of miles long, Russian defenses will be formidable.

Moscow’s troops have had months to dig in, lay minefields and prepare redoubts. The Pentagon has been training new Ukrainian units in the hope that they have the power to turn the tide, but some US officials have noted that entrenched Russian defenders can be difficult to dislodge.

Ukrainian forces have also faced challenges as Russian formations have become adept at using drones to pinpoint targets for artillery strikes. Kiev’s forces have found it difficult, often under withering fire, to coordinate troop movements, tanks and artillery support effectively enough to effect a breakthrough.

Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian former paramilitary commander who goes by the nom de guerre Igor Strelkov on Telegram, said Russian forces had had time to prepare for a Ukrainian counterattack — unlike last year, he wrote, when they created “ideal conditions” for Kiev. troops to advance in Kharkiv.

But he said a major breakthrough by Ukrainian troops in the Novodonetske area would give Kiev an opening to drive a wedge between Donetsk and Mariupol in southern Ukraine and cut off communications between the two Russian-occupied cities. to cut.

“If the enemy succeeds in breaking through deep enough and into a broad sector of the front (which he is trying to do),” wrote Mr. Girkin, “then his advantage in number of units and formations will be hard to stop.”

Even as battlefield activity surged, diplomatic efforts to stop the war continued. Pope Francis sent a cardinal to Ukraine for a two-day trip to discuss prospects for peace, the Vatican said Monday.

There was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian government, which has expressed skepticism about the pope’s role as a potential mediator.

Reporting contributed by Adam Entus, Paul Son, Daniel Victor, Matthew Mpoke Bigg And Gaia Pianigiani.