What a US-China climate deal means for COP28

The United States and China announced a deal Tuesday evening to vastly increase clean energy, replace fossil fuels and reduce planet-warming emissions.

The agreement comes at a crucial time for the United States, the biggest climate polluter in history, and China, currently the biggest polluter. Together they are responsible for 38 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases.

President Biden and President Xi Jinping of China will meet today. And in two weeks, representatives from nearly 200 countries will meet in Dubai as part of the United Nations climate talks known as COP28.

The US-China deal could provide a boost of ambition ahead of the global talks. If the world’s two biggest polluting countries can agree to reduce their fossil fuel emissions, other countries should find it easier to follow suit.

“This certainly puts wind in the sails heading into the COP,” said my colleague Lisa Friedman, who has covered the US-China climate negotiations for years.

Lisa noted that in the run-up to COP21, which took place in Paris in 2015, the US and China agreed on a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, using precise language that recognized that each country would move at its own pace should act. .

Months later, Lisa said, “that language eventually became part of the language of the Paris Agreement,” when world leaders reached a landmark agreement to try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The battle is already raging in the run-up to Dubai.

“We are in a situation where countries are debating how to come out of COP28 with political language calling on countries to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency and also whether to call on countries to phase out fossil fuels to phase in, or without prejudice to fossil fuels. Lisa said.

This year, perhaps as in 2015, a bilateral agreement between the US and China could provide a much-needed template for negotiations.

Not all climate experts are optimistic. This year’s event will be held in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil producers. Critics have derided this year’s conference as a farce, where governments influenced by fossil fuel interests will make non-binding commitments that are never kept.

Details of the agreement

The climate deal announced today represents a rare point of agreement between the US and China, who disagree on geopolitics and trade.

The countries agreed to “continue efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030,” with the aim of “accelerating the substitution of coal, oil and gas generation.” Both countries expect to achieve “meaningful absolute emissions reductions in the energy sector” this decade.

The agreement contains few enforcement mechanisms. But things are moving forward on several fronts.

Both countries agreed that in their next set of national climate pledges, due next year, they would set reduction targets for all greenhouse gas emissions – not just carbon dioxide, but also methane, nitrous oxide and other planet-warming gases.

China’s willingness to tackle methane, a move the country has long resisted, is particularly notable. Although the country has agreed in principle to reduce methane, it has not previously said it will set concrete targets.

“Methane is notably absent from China’s previous commitments under the Paris Agreement,” David Waskow, international climate director at the World Resources Institute, said in a statement. “This announcement is a big step because China is the world’s largest methane emitter and serious action to curb this gas is essential to slow global warming in the near term.”

While the agreement marks the resumption of cooperation between the world’s two biggest polluters, sets ambitious new goals and builds momentum for the COP, it will not be enough to quiet critics who say the world is still acting too slowly to tackle climate change. change.

Alden Meyer, a senior fellow at E3G, an environmental research organization based in Britain, said the American-Chinese language around displacing fossil fuels was “tortured” and did not clearly commit either country to taking decisive action.

“There is really no mention of the need to gradually reduce oil and gas emissions,” he said.

The deal also does not include any pledge by China to phase out the use of coal or to stop licensing and building new coal-fired power plants. Scientists say immediately reducing fossil fuel use is essential to prevent further catastrophic warming.

“It is disappointing that the two countries have not addressed the need to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels this decade, which will be a central theme at the COP28 summit,” Waskow said.

— Additional reporting by Lisa Friedman