What's next in the federal election case against Trump?

Tuesday's ruling by a three-judge panel of the federal appeals court in Washington, rejecting former President Donald J. Trump's claims of immunity from charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, was a significant defeat for Mr Trump. And it was a victory for Jack Smith, the special prosecutor, who has tried to move the case at a pace that could get it to trial well before Election Day.

But what happens next will have a substantial impact on the pressing question of when Mr. Trump will face a jury in the case. And that answer, in turn, could go a long way toward determining the timing of the other three criminal charges brought against him.

Here's a look at how things could play out.

Which court will Trump appeal to next?

Although a spokesman for Mr. Trump's campaign confirmed that he planned to challenge the appeals court's decision, it remains unclear whether he will ask the Supreme Court to hear the case directly or take an interim step and first hear the full court of appeal will ask to consider the case. .

Normally, seeking review by the full appeals court would be a step that would eat up additional time and help delay the start of a trial — a strategy Trump has followed from the very beginning of the election interference case.

But in its ruling, the court's three-judge panel included a provision that appeared designed to speed things up and encourage Mr. Trump to take his immunity challenge directly to the Supreme Court.

The panel said that if Mr. Trump went directly to the Supreme Court on Monday, the underlying case, which was stayed by the trial judge in December, would remain on hold until the justices decided whether to hear the case.

While pursuing this route would deprive the former president of the additional days he could have spent seeking review from the full appeals court, it would have the countervailing benefit of likely keeping the underlying case frozen while the justices worked on it. were work.

The panel said that if Mr. Trump were to proceed and ask the full appeals court to hear the issue first, the case would be sent back to the judge, Tanya S. Chutkan, on Monday, who could quickly lift the pause. And that would mean that all hearings and filing deadlines that are now suspended would start again.

Why is the pause in the underlying case important?

Whether or not the underlying case remains frozen will have a direct effect on when the case goes to trial. Last week, Judge Chutkan, who is overseeing the case in Federal District Court in Washington, canceled her original trial date of March 4, bowing to the reality that time to initiate proceedings had run out by then.

In recent court filings, Judge Chutkan said that, in the interests of fairness, she did not want Mr. Trump and his lawyers to be punished by the pause in the case. She suggested that for every day of trial preparation they lost due to the freeze, they would delay the trial by an equal number of days.

What happens if Trump appeals to the Supreme Court?

The first decision facing the justices would be whether to hear the case at all. If they refused to hear it and simply upheld the appeals court ruling, the case could be sent back to Judge Chutkan in a few weeks.

At that point, the case would have been on hold for about two months. And if Judge Chutkan sticks to her suggestion to ensure Trump's lawyers don't lose trial preparation time because of the freeze, it could theoretically mean a new trial date sometime in early May.

However, if the Supreme Court decides to hear the immunity issue, the next important question will be how quickly they move in planning arguments and issuing a decision. Without an accelerated timetable, their ruling might not come until the end of the legislative session, in late June or early July.

If they expedite the appeal and rule against Mr. Trump this spring, it could be possible to hold a trial in the summer before the general election in November. But that would pose certain complications, such as the proceedings taking place near or during the Republican Party's nominating convention in Milwaukee, which Trump will surely attend.

It would also mean that Mr. Trump, due to his court appearance obligations, may not be able to follow a normal campaign schedule.

But if the justices take their time to decide the appeal, it will be difficult to get the trial started before the fall, during the home stretch of the campaign, increasing the likelihood that the trial will have to be postponed until after the election . If that were to happen and Mr. Trump were to win, he would be in a position to ask his Justice Department to dismiss the case or even try to pardon himself.

The chance that the court will rule in Trump's favor on the immunity issue seems extremely small. But if that were to happen, the case would be dismissed without a trial at all.