Wildfire smoke will worsen, new studies show, and there are few protective measures in place

More than 125 million Americans will be exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution by mid-century, largely due to increased smoke from wildfires. estimates released Monday.

Still, there are few good ways to protect communities, experts say. The United States has become better at dealing with other climate hazards, such as floods, hurricanes and even wildfires themselves. Smoke is different: it's more challenging to anticipate, to get people to take it seriously, and to keep it out of people's homes.

“Especially with wildfire smoke, we're not going to adapt to the problem,” said Brian G. Henning, director of the Institute for Climate, Water and Environment at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Washington. “It's really hard to tackle.”

According to the First Street Foundation, the research group that released the report, U.S. air pollution began steadily improving in the 1950s, largely due to increased regulations. However, from around 2016 the trajectory reversed.

That shift can be seen in the Air Quality Index, which measures the concentration of small particles in the air, which can be absorbed through the lungs and into the bloodstream, as well as ozone, another harmful pollutant. Average air quality measurements have been getting worse for almost a decade.

There are two main causes explaining this shift, both of which are related to climate change, according to First Street. First, more extreme heat has increased ozone levels in the air. Second, and more consequential, an increase in heat and drought has worsened the wildfires, causing more smoke to reach more of the United States.

This can pose serious health risks.

According to Susan Anenberg, director of the Climate and Health Institute at George Washington University, inhaling the tiny particles in wildfire smoke has been linked to stroke, heart disease, respiratory disease, lung cancer and early death. “The higher the level of pollution and the longer the duration of exposure,” she said, “the greater the risk.”

'Amazing' projections

Pollution levels are expected to deteriorate significantly.

First Street predicted changes in air pollution based on models predicting extreme heat and wildfires. The group estimates that by 2054, more than 125 million Americans will be exposed to at least one day of sun each year. “red” air quality, the level that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency describes as unhealthy. That's a 50 percent jump from this year.

Eleven million Americans are expected to experience at least one day of a purple index on the index, which the EPA labels as “very unhealthy.” The highest risk level, maroon, is what the EPA calls “hazardous,” and First Street projects that nearly two million Americans will be exposed to at least one such day by 2054.

“Parts of the country will experience days of unhealthy air quality for months,” said Jeremy R. Porter, head of climate implications at First Street and lead author of the report. “This statistic is staggering and will slowly make some parts of the country relatively unliveable.”

By 2054, New York City is expected to see eight days a year when its air quality index is orange or worse, meaning the air is unhealthy for at least some sensitive groups. That is an increase compared to six days this year.

Los Angeles County, the nation's most populous, is expected to spend 54 days in orange or worse, compared to 47 this year.

The worst impacts will be in California's Central Valley. Fresno County and Tulare County could each experience unhealthy air for 90 days a year, the study found. Air pollution in Fresno County is expected to reach “hazardous” levels three weeks out of the year.

Another threat

The best way to tackle wildfire smoke, experts note, is to stop warming the planet, which would dramatically reduce the amount of oil, coal and natural gas that people burn. But that remains far from feasible: while U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in recent decades, global emissions have fallen continue to rise.

The Biden administration is also trying to limit wildfires by reducing the amount of flammable vegetation on federal lands, through prescribed burns and other strategies. But these treatments are expensive and usually cover relatively small areas, limiting their effect.

That leaves state and local governments with one major option: trying to protect residents from the smoke that will increasingly reach their communities. But the barriers are enormous.

Engineers and emergency managers have become better at mitigating the effects of other climate disasters. Flood zones can be protected by walls and storm pumps, or by raising buildings off the ground. Homes at risk from hurricanes can be reinforced against wind and flying debris. Even the direct threat of forest fires can be significantly reduced by reducing vegetation around houses and using building materials that do not burn easily.

Smoke from wildfires is different.

As last year's wildfires in Canada showed, smoke can travel great distances without any warning. Unlike flooding, the movement of smoke through a community cannot be easily guessed by mapping local topography, and cannot be blocked or redirected.

This makes the smoke from wildfires more like extreme heat. But unlike heat waves, people cannot respond by moving their activities to the morning or evening hours. And people may not know when they are exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution.

“You can't always see it,” said Paige Fischer, a professor at the University of Michigan's School for Environment and Sustainability, who studies responses to extreme smoke. “You don't experience the advanced health consequences until much later.”

Not safe inside

Governments are working to improve their warning systems, for example by sending notifications to people's phones. But those most at risk are often older or don't speak English, according to Crystal Raymond, a climate adaptation specialist at the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group. “There is a very big communication challenge,” said Dr. Raymond.

Even when people know the air is dangerous, their options are limited. The most common guidance is to take shelter in houses or other buildings. However, not all constructions offer protection.

“Unless you have central air, and central air with a good filter, there is no reason to believe that indoor air quality is significantly better than outdoor air quality,” says Dr. Henning of Gonzaga University. Without a filtration device, he added, “the only thing filtering indoor air is your lungs.”

Lori Moore-Merrell, the U.S. fire administrator, is responsible for fire investigation and public education. In a statement, she said local officials should provide people without air filters at home, or those who are homeless, with information about where to find what she called “cleaner air shelters.”

The team of Dr. Henning uses an EPA grant to set up such a shelter and installs an expensive air filtration system at a community center in Spokane, Washington. But his concern is that some people will not recognize the danger they are in. and will stay in homes that have become unsafe.

Risk when working outdoors

Those who have to work outside are also particularly difficult to protect. Dr. Moore-Merrell said outdoor workers should use equipment such as N95 masks, which filter smoke.

But that's not as easy as it sounds, according to Natalie Herbert, a research scientist at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability who has studied community responses to smoke. For the masks to work, they must fit properly and be worn constantly. “If it's really hot and there's smoke, it's going to be uncomfortable,” said Dr. Herbert.

Officials across the country are responding in different ways.

A spokeswoman for New York City's emergency management agency said the city has been working to improve interagency coordination and public messaging since last summer, when smoke from Canada turned the sky orange. When asked how New York planned to protect people who work outdoors or don't have air conditioning, she referred questions to City Hall, which did not respond.

The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, which includes Fresno County, is turning schools, libraries and other spaces into clean air centers and has also distributed air filtration units to people in underserved communities, spokeswoman Heather E. Heinks said.

Without more options to protect themselves, people may feel like they have no choice but to put up with the smoke, said Dr. Henning. “Is that adjusting?” he asked. 'I do not think so. It's really just suffering.”