Houthi attacks and US-led attacks are dashing hopes for a quick peace deal in Yemen
For nine years, Yemen was torn by a war that erupted when the Houthis, a Yemeni militia backed by Iran, ousted the government and took control of the country's northwest, sowing chaos across the border with Saudi Arabia.
A Saudi-led military coalition began a bombing campaign, backed by American weapons and military support, in an attempt to restore the government. Instead, hundreds of thousands of people died from fighting, hunger and disease, and the coalition withdrew under international pressure, leaving the Houthis in power.
As 2023 arrived, it seemed that the Houthis and the Yemeni factions they had been fighting were finally ready to sign a peace deal. But then the war in Gaza began, and now the prospect of peace is disappearing.
The Houthis launched a series of attacks on ships in the Red Sea, a US-led military coalition began pounding Yemen with airstrikes – including an intensive barrage on Sunday – and a US decision to designate the Houthis as a terrorist group temporarily blocked a crucial part of the peace process.
Anti-Houthi groups in Yemen saw an opening to regain territory and began calling on international support to revive their struggle. All that has spoiled the hopes many diplomats had for the United Nations-backed peace deal that seemed imminent for much of the past year.
“The escalation in the Red Sea has resulted in the immediate suspension of a deal that was expected to be announced in recent months,” said Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. “The UN-led political discussions are currently at a standstill.”
Yemen, at the southernmost tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is the poorest country in the Middle East. The conflict there began in 2014, when Houthi fighters invaded the capital Sana and took over state institutions. The years of war that followed plunged the country into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises and saw the Houthis entrench their power in northern Yemen, where they have created an impoverished quasi-state that they rule with an iron fist.
The fighting had largely subsided over the past two years.
Saudi Arabia, which borders Yemen to the north, began direct talks with the Houthis in an effort to withdraw from the war, and diplomatic steps to resolve the conflict intensified.
In late December, the United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, announced that the rival sides had taken a significant step toward ending the war. At the time, the Houthis had already started attacking ships in the Red Sea. But a de facto ceasefire had been established in the country, and the Houthis had taken steps that could eventually lead to a lasting peace, Mr. Grundberg said at the time.
“Thirty million Yemenis are watching and waiting for this new opportunity,” he said.
In an essay in Foreign Affairs several months ago, Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser, praised the period of relative calm in Yemen, saying it was partly “thanks to persistent and principled American diplomacy.”
Now the Biden administration is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy “to regain control of the Red Sea as quickly as possible,” Tim Lenderking, the US special envoy to Yemen, told The New York Times in an interview.
That includes using airstrikes to weaken the Houthis' ability to attack ships, stepping up efforts to interdict Iranian weapons sent to the militia and increasing diplomatic efforts to pressure the Houthis, he said.
“The Biden administration continues to prioritize resolving the conflict in Yemen, although it is difficult to see any international support for the Houthis sitting at the negotiating table with the Yemeni government while the Houthis are shooting at ships,” he added to. “The wisest course of action is for the Houthis to stop their attacks on ships.”
However, for the parties that have fought the Houthis for years, the sudden global spotlight on Yemen presents an opportunity.
Rashad al-Alimi, the head of Yemen's internationally recognized government, recently called for international support for a new ground offensive against the Houthis in Yemeni territory overlooking the Red Sea.
“These regions must be liberated from Houthi control,” he said in a rare briefing with international news media. “The solution is to eliminate the Houthis' military capabilities.”
The United States is not considering arming or financing the anti-Houthi Yemeni factions, Mr. Lenderking said.
“We do not want to fan the flames of military conflict in Yemen,” he said. “Yemen has been a story of progress over the past two years; the world wanted and continues to support Yemeni peace and prosperity for Yemenis.”
But even before the war in Gaza began on October 7, many political analysts and Yemenis had expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the peace process.
“Even if the U.N.-led process moves forward, it would likely lead to an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis that does not resolve the underlying conflict between the Houthis and anti-Houthi forces” in Yemen, Alex Stark said. , an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, a think tank.
Diplomats and analysts have also expressed fears of this in recent years tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could complicate efforts to end the war. The two US allies in the Gulf had worked together in the Saudi-led coalition to fight the Houthis, but later appeared to different goals in Yemen.
While the Houthis control the northwest, where most of Yemen's population lives, much of the rest of the country is controlled by the Southern Transitional Council, an armed separatist group backed by the Emirates that calls for an independent South -Yemen.
Today, the internationally recognized government is led by an eight-member presidential council plagued by infighting, whose members are united only in their opposition to the Houthis. Many Yemenis derisively call it “the government of hotels” because it largely rules in exile.
Mr al-Alimi, the head of the presidential council, is believed to spend much of his time at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. The vice president is Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of the Emirati-backed separatist group, which previously fought against Yemeni government forces.
“What we agree on, we move forward with, and what we disagree on, we postpone a little bit,” Mr al-Alimi said when asked about tensions within the council.
He said the Yemeni government was “ready for a peace process,” although he argued that more fighting might be needed initially to force the Houthis to come to the table.
But in early January, Amr Al Bidh, a senior official at the Southern Transitional Council, openly criticized the UN-led “road map” to peace. He called it a Saudi-led plan and said his group had not been adequately consulted, adding that he believed it contained elements that would “empower” the Houthis.
“We must first stop the road map and then let's seriously think about something on land,” he said – referring to a new ground offensive against the Houthis.
In December, UN envoy Grundberg said the peace plan he hoped to move forward would include a ceasefire, a resumption of oil exports from Yemen and an easing of restrictions at Sana airport.
It would also include an element crucial to the Houthis and many Yemeni citizens: salary payments for public sector workers in Houthi-controlled areas that have gone without wages for years. That payment would be impossible under the terror designation that the United States says it will soon implement against the Houthis.
U.S. officials have already issued special permits to ensure humanitarian aid can continue and companies can import food, medicine and fuel into Yemen, including through Houthi-controlled ports, said a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity spoke because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Officials could issue an additional permit that would facilitate payment of salaries if the Houthis pursue the path of peace, he added. If they do, the United States is prepared to reconsider the designation altogether, the official added.
But so far the Houthis have shown little interest in stopping their attacks.
The Houthis “will meet the US-British escalation with escalation,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official. said on the social media platform X.
Erik Schmitt contributed reporting from washington, and Saeed Al-Batati from Al Mukalla, Yemen.