Zelensky goes to Berlin and Paris to strengthen US Wavers' support
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky will make a whirlwind tour of Berlin and Paris on Friday in a bid to shore up European support at a crucial moment for his country's fight against Russia, while US support is wavering and Ukraine desperately needs more weapons .
Mr Zelensky is expected to sign security deals with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France during his visits to the two leaders' capitals, ahead of an expected appearance at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
European leaders are trying to provide more support to Ukraine amid growing concerns that a $60 billion US aid package passed by the Senate could still be thwarted by Republicans in the House of Representatives .
The security agreements are part of a series of such commitments that all members of the Group of Seven and a number of other countries pledged to Ukraine last year at a meeting of NATO allies in Vilnius, Lithuania, a move seen as an attempt to compensate for their unwillingness. Kiev quickly into the alliance.
The agreements are intended to provide Ukraine with sufficient security support to deter further Russian aggression – including the supply of key weapons, training of troops and intelligence sharing – and to strengthen Ukraine's financial stability and help the country achieve political and implement economic reforms.
Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister, said the security deals pledged by G-7 members were the best his country had achieved since independence in 1991. But he noted that they do not commit allies to acting on Ukraine's behalf fight, and instead only promise to help Ukraine in the event of future aggression.
Through these agreements, Klimkin said, Ukraine's allies will “deliver what they can and when they can, which is fundamentally different from delivering what is needed and when it is needed.”
“Everything in these agreements will be achieved based on political decisions,” he added. “That's a big if.”
Ukraine is also in dire need of ammunition, especially artillery shells, ahead of what security experts say could be a crucial year for its fight against Russia. Ukraine needs a “munition support package,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
“Zelensky knows who his main allies are at the moment – Scholz and Macron – but both must take the next step,” Kleine-Brockhoff said. “The Europeans face a fork in the road: when and if the United States falls by the wayside in financial support, can they step up?”
Since October, European Union countries and institutions have allocated nearly $5 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine – more than three times as much as the United States allocated in the same period, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Total aid granted by the bloc has surpassed that of the United States since August.
This month, European Union leaders pledged 50 billion euros, about $54 billion, in new aid to Ukraine.
But to fully replace U.S. military aid this year, Europe would still need to “double its current level and pace of arms assistance,” according to the Kiel Institute assessment.
Chancellor Scholz has made clear that even if Europe steps up its efforts, it may be impossible to continue Ukraine's military campaign without American support.
“Let's not beat around the bush: support from the United States is indispensable for whether Ukraine will be able to defend its own country,” Scholz said last week after a meeting with President Biden in Washington.
Germany, once widely criticized as a laggard in military aid to Ukraine, is now second only to Washington in what it has provided. In November, Berlin announced it would double its aid to $8.5 billion by 2024.
The chancellery is now urging other countries in Europe to share the burden and offer more arms supplies, arguing that it cannot offer more.
Smaller countries such as Estonia and Latvia, both of which feel threatened by neighboring Russia, followed last month with announcements of new military aid packages, including drones and artillery weapons. But a large gap remains between European aid commitments and actual deliveries.
European Union countries and institutions have pledged more than $150 billion in aid since Russia's large-scale invasion began almost two years ago, but they have allocated only half that amount, the Kiel Institute said. In contrast, the United States has allocated more than 90 percent of the $73 billion in aid it has pledged.
Last month, Britain, which is not a member of the bloc, became the first G-7 country to sign one of the promised security deals with Ukraine. It includes cooperation in the defense industry, as well as in the areas of cybersecurity and maritime security, and states that in the event of future aggression by Russia, both countries “will hold consultations within 24 hours to determine the measures necessary to to counter or deter aggression.”
France, which has been criticized for sending too little financial and military aid to Ukraine, has tried in recent weeks to highlight its continued support for Kiev. Mr Macron said last month that his country would send Ukraine 40 long-range scalp missiles, which have proven crucial for attacks deep behind enemy lines, as well as “hundreds of bombs”.
To meet Ukraine's demands, France has also halved the production time of Caesar self-propelled howitzers and plans to produce 78 such guns this year. France said it would donate 12 to Ukraine, while Kiev has already purchased six with its own funds. French authorities hope other Western allies will help pay the rest.