Zelensky looks to other allies as Aid Bill faces opposition in House of Representatives

President Volodymyr Zelensky is doubling down on his diplomatic outreach to Europe in hopes of filling the void left by months of American indecision, as the debate over providing renewed military aid to Ukraine continues in Washington.

The Ukrainian leader was quick to praise the bipartisan group of U.S. senators who approved $60 billion in aid for his country at a time when Ukrainian soldiers are struggling with a shortage of weapons and ammunition. terror.”

The reactions across the Ukrainian political spectrum were similar: they sought to express their gratitude to those who support the government in Kiev, while being careful not to say anything that could in any way jeopardize the debate in the future. The relief package has yet to pass the Republican-led House, where speaker Mike Johnson said he would ignore it.

“We hope that, as a result of constructive debate and dialogue, the bill will also receive bipartisan support and be passed in the US House of Representatives,” said Olena Kondratyuk, the deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament. “We need this support to continue fighting for our freedom and independence. A clear message must also be sent to the aggressor country Russia about the unity of the democratic world and continued American leadership in providing comprehensive assistance to Ukraine.”

But Ukrainians are well aware that the bill will face stiff opposition from a powerful faction of Republicans, encouraged by former President Donald J. Trump to kill the bill. The Zelensky government is therefore increasingly turning to friends closer to home. A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal diplomatic discussions, said a victory in Ukraine by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “would be disastrous for Europe.”

“It could lead to him expanding his aggression to other countries in the region,” the official said of Mr. Putin. “Europeans understand this and it motivates them to take action despite the unrest on the other side of the Atlantic.”

Mr. Zelensky will most likely push for more military aid on visits to Berlin, Paris and possibly London as part of a whirlwind tour this week meant to coincide with the Munich Security Conference, an annual meeting of leaders focused on international security, the Ukrainian official said. The president's office does not comment on his travel plans for security reasons and warned that nothing had been finalized, but Mr. Zelensky hinted at the diplomatic outreach in a recent speech and said his team was preparing for the Munich conference .

“Ukraine will present its vision for this year,” Mr Zelensky said. “A decisive year in many ways.”

Russia has seized the initiative at the front, using its growing advantage in artillery and air power to reinforce waves of its soldiers.

So far the Russians have failed to make a major breakthrough through Ukrainian lines, but senior Western officials have warned that without American help it could become impossible for Kiev to withstand the attack and that Ukraine could slowly enter the war might lose.

While Russian losses continue to mount — at least 8,800 armored fighting vehicles have been destroyed since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion two years ago — Moscow “has been able to keep its active inventory numbers stable,” according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. a british research group that studies military stockpiles worldwide said in a new report.

“It is therefore our assessment that Russia will be able to continue its attack on Ukraine at current depletion rates for another two to three years, and perhaps even longer,” the group estimates.

The resilience of Russia's military-industrial complex in the face of expanded Western sanctions has surprised some analysts and increased concerns among countries along NATO's eastern flank facing a growing number of Western sanctions. warn officials of the need to urgently increase their own weapons production, given the threat Mr Putin poses outside Ukraine.

Kaupo Rosin, director general of the Estonian intelligence service, said this on Tuesday ahead of the release of the agency's annual safety assessment, that it was highly unlikely that Russia would take military action against a NATO joining country while trapped in Ukraine. But he warned that “we see that the Russians in their own thinking assume that military conflict with NATO is possible in the next decade.”

“The Russians plan to expand military power along the border of the Baltic states, but also on the Finnish border,” Mr. Rosin said. “We will most likely see an increase in manpower – about a doubling perhaps. We will see an increase in armed personnel vehicles, tanks and artillery systems in the coming years.”

Ukraine's supporters have argued that investing in the fight against Russia in Ukraine could save lives in the long run – an argument that Mr Zelensky himself made in Munich two years ago, on the eve of the Russian invasion.

In that speech on February 19, 2022, he recalled how, when Germany invaded Poland at the outbreak of World War II, many wondered: “Why die for Danzig?”

That question, he said that day, “turned into the need to die for Dunkirk and dozens of other cities in Europe and the world.” At the cost of tens of millions of lives.”

“We appreciate any help, but everyone should understand that these are not charitable contributions,” he said at the time. “These are not noble gestures that require Ukraine to bow deeply. This is your contribution to the security of Europe and the world.”

When he made that speech, war was not yet certain. Mr Putin insisted he had no plans to invade Ukraine, and even Mr Zelenskiy was unsure whether to believe dire warnings from Western allies.

Two years later, dozens of Ukrainian towns and cities lie in ruins. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed or injured. And both armies continue to fight, despite hundreds of thousands of casualties.

Ukraine's message to its European allies this week will likely be largely the same as just before the war. But now, Kiev hopes, many of the illusions about Russia's intentions have been shattered, and the danger Russia poses to the continent has become clear in the carnage wrought in Ukraine.

Mr Zelensky also held out hope after the Senate vote on Tuesday that America would continue to play its crucial role as an arsenal for democracy.

“The world awaits American leadership to stand firm and help protect lives and preserve freedom,” he said.

Maria Varenikova contributed reporting from Kiev.