Hoping to avert a nuclear crisis, the US is seeking an informal deal with Iran

The Biden administration has been quietly negotiating with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and release imprisoned Americans, according to officials from three countries, as part of a larger US effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military confrontation with to reduce the Islamic Republic.

The US goal is to broker an informal, unwritten agreement, which some Iranian officials are calling a “political ceasefire.” It should prevent further escalation in a long-running adversarial relationship that has become even more fraught as Iran builds up a stockpile of highly enriched uranium near bomb-grade purity, supplies Russia with drones for use in Ukraine and cracks down on domestic political protests.

The outline of the talks was confirmed by three senior Israeli officials, an Iranian official and a US official. U.S. officials would not discuss in detail efforts to free prisoners, except to call it an urgent U.S. priority.

The indirect talks, some of which took place this spring in the Gulf Arab state of Oman, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the United States and Iran following the failure of more than a year of negotiations to reinstate the 2015 nuclear deal, which has disrupted the activities of Iran in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran accelerated its nuclear program months after President Donald J. Trump pulled out of the deal and imposed a series of new sanctions about the country in 2018.

Iran would agree to a new pact — which two Israeli officials called “imminent” — not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity. That is nearly but not the 90 percent purity needed to make a nuclear weapon, a level the United States has warned would lead to a harsh response.

Iran would also stop deadly attacks on US contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, Iranian officials said.

In return, Iran would expect the United States not to tighten sanctions that are already stifling their economy; not to seize oil-carrying foreign tankers, as happened most recently in April; and not to seek new punitive resolutions from the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.

“None of this is aimed at reaching a groundbreaking agreement,” said Ali Vaez, the Iranian director of the International Crisis Group, but instead “intended to prevent existing tensions from boiling over and to put a lid on any activity that actually crosses a red line… or puts one of the parties in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo.”

“The goal is to stabilize tensions, to create time and space to discuss future diplomacy and the nuclear deal,” said Mr. Vaez.

Iran also expects the United States to release billions of dollars in Iranian assets, the use of which would be limited to humanitarian purposes, in exchange for the release of three Iranian-American prisoners the US says have been wrongly held. U.S. officials have confirmed no such connection between the prisoners and the money, nor any connection between prisoners and nuclear matters.

In what could be a sign of a developing agreement, the United States last week issued a waiver allowing Iraq to pay $2.76 billion in energy debts to Iran. The money, according to the State Department, would be limited to use by US-approved third-party suppliers for items such as food and medicine.

That could allay concerns that the Biden administration is placing billions in the hands of a ruthless authoritarian regime that is murdering protesters, supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and funding anti-Israel proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Republicans hammered the Obama administration for releasing billions in frozen Iranian money, which they say enabled the subsidy for terrorist activities.

Iranian officials are also seeking an estimated $7 billion in payments for oil purchases in South Korea that they have linked to the release of US prisoners. That money, too, would be restricted for humanitarian use and held in a bank in Qatar, according to an Iranian official and several other people familiar with the negotiations.

The renewed US focus on Iran’s nuclear program stems from growing concerns within the Biden administration that Tehran could create a crisis by ramping up its uranium enrichment.

“The US seems to be making it clear to Iran that if you go to 90 percent, you are going to pay a great price,” said Dennis Ross, who helped draft Middle East policy for several US presidents. Mr Ross spoke from Israel, where he had met with security officials familiar with the recent talks.

At the same time, Mr. Ross said, the Biden administration has no appetite for another crisis. “They want the priority and focus to remain on Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Waging a war in the Middle East where you know how it starts but you don’t know how it ends is the last thing they want.”

At a news conference on Wednesday, State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “rumors of a nuclear deal — interim or not — are false or misleading.”

“Our No. 1 policy is to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, so of course we have been monitoring Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities,” added Mr. Miller to it. “We believe diplomacy is the best way to help achieve that, but we are preparing for all possible options and contingencies.”

However, the US denial of a pending “nuclear deal” could hinge on semantics, if the outcome boils down to the colloquial understanding described by multiple officials. Such an understanding would also avoid the need for the approval of a US Congress that is highly hostile to Iran.

In an unexpected rhetorical twist, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday he could approve a deal with the West if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remained intact, according to state media reports. Mr Khamenei also said Iran should maintain at least some cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.

Israel has warned that Iran could be seriously affected by its production of bomb-grade uranium. “If Iran enriched itself to 90 percent armed, it would be a big mistake and the price would be high,” said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. said in May.

Even if Iran were to use its high-speed centrifuges to purify uranium to a level suitable for making a nuclear weapon, it would still take time to build such a bomb. In March, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark A. Milley, told a House subcommittee that process could take “several months”.

“The U.S. military has developed multiple options for our national leaders to consider, if and when Iran decides to develop a nuclear weapon,” Gen Milley added.

A senior Israeli defense official said Israeli estimates it would take Iran much longer — at least a year and perhaps more than two years — to make a bomb and said Mr Milley’s comments reflect a US effort to address the urgency of concluding a new agreement. as soon as possible with Tehran.

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, despite evidence that it has explored nuclear military capabilities.

The Biden administration’s diplomatic contact with Iran resumed late last year with US special envoy to Iran Robert Malley holding two meetings with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani, according to people familiar with the meetings. In early May, Brett McGurk, the White House Middle East coordinator, traveled to Oman for indirect talks, brokered by the Omanis, with an Iranian delegation, including Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani, the Iranian ministry confirmed. of Foreign Affairs Monday.

During negotiations to reinstate the 2015 deal, Iran refused to meet directly with US officials.

In a statement to The New York Times, Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment on the details of the talks, saying “it is important to create a new atmosphere and move forward from the current situation. “

The renewed talks have alarmed some Israeli officials, who worry that the implementation of new agreements could ease Western economic pressure on Iran and even lead to a broader nuclear deal that Israel fears could provide a lifeline for the economy of Tehran without sufficiently derailing nuclear activities. .

Mr Ross said a modest, crisis averting agreement could be useful, but only if it were limited in time. Iran has built new underground facilities, he noted, that would likely withstand the US bunker-destroying bombs currently threatening its existing nuclear sites.

“The more they harden, the more the military options lose their power,” said Mr. Ross. “Buying time from that point of view works for the Iranians.”