The US rejects Putin's latest call for negotiations with Ukraine

The Biden administration on Friday rejected a call from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, showing no sign that declining political support for U.S. military aid to Kiev had made President Biden more inclined to make concessions to do in Moscow.

During his two-hour interview in the Kremlin with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who now broadcasts independently online, Mr Putin long defended his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine but said he was prepared to resolve the conflict diplomatically unload.

“We are ready to negotiate,” Mr. Putin told Mr. Carlson in the interview, which was released Thursday. “You have to tell the current Ukrainian leadership to stop and come to the negotiating table,” he added, referring to the US government.

The Russian leader spoke at a moment of apparent leverage, following the failure of a vaunted Ukrainian summer counteroffensive to achieve substantial gains and as the Biden administration struggles to gain congressional approval for much-needed additional military aid to Kiev.

It is not the first time Putin has expressed his willingness to negotiate Ukraine's fate, and Western officials have long been skeptical of his intentions. But because it was his first interview with an American journalist since the invasion, his call for talks has extra resonance, analysts said.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the best the Ukrainian military can hope for in the coming year, especially without more U.S. help, is to defend its current positions. Still, Biden officials say they do not entertain the idea of ​​pressuring Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to negotiate with Putin.

“Both we and President Zelensky have said numerous times that we believe this war will end through negotiations,” a National Security Council spokesperson said in a statement. “Despite Mr. Putin's words, we have seen no actions that indicate he is interested in ending this war. If so, he would withdraw his troops and stop his relentless attacks on Ukraine.”

U.S. officials had previously determined that Putin did not plan to start serious negotiations until after the U.S. presidential election in November. Mr. Putin, they say, wants to wait and see whether former President Donald J. Trump returns to the White House and offers him more favorable terms.

In an interview last spring, Mr. Trump said the “terrible” conflict in Ukraine must end immediately and that if re-elected he would strike a deal to “end that war in one day.”

The Biden administration has backed Ukraine's stated desire to reclaim territory Russia has occupied since the invasion. Russia now occupies about 18 percent of Ukrainian land.

U.S. officials have also long insisted that despite the more than $75 billion in aid the United States has provided to Ukraine, it is not up to Washington to dictate whether Kiev will enter into peace talks and on what terms. “Ultimately, it is up to Ukraine to determine the course of the negotiations,” the National Security Council statement said.

Many analysts were also skeptical of Mr. Putin's intentions. Sergey Radchenko, a Russian historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said Putin cannot be trusted.

Mr. Radchenko said that Mr. Putin may have been engaged in what was known in Soviet times as a “peace offensive” — a disingenuous tactical feint whose purpose, he said, was “to present a reasonable face to the outside world: 'Oh yes 'Of course we want peace – it's just the other side that doesn't want to talk.'”

Some Western officials believe Putin may also have his domestic audience in mind when he talks about a negotiated end to the war. Polls in Russia have shown that Russian citizens would welcome a settlement to end the conflict that has shaken their economy and claimed tens of thousands of victims.

Talk of peace could also win Putin's favor among countries in the so-called global south – countries in South America, Asia and Africa, including India and South Africa, that have no connection to the conflict in Ukraine. Most of these countries have suffered from higher energy and food prices as a result of the war.

Putin appeared to be exploiting Republican opposition to Biden's Ukraine funding request, echoing criticism voiced by some conservative members of Congress in recent weeks. “You have problems at the border, problems with migration, problems with the national debt – over $33 trillion. You have nothing better to do, so you have to fight in Ukraine?” Mr Putin asked.

Alternatively, Mr. Radchenko said, Mr. Putin might be willing to make some unexpected concessions for a peace deal that gives Russia a foothold in eastern Ukraine, “and then use that as a basis for further aggression against Ukraine , or as leverage.” to impose a preferential government on Ukraine.”

Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, said it was possible Putin had been bluffing about the talks all along. But he said it was worth engaging the Kremlin privately to determine Putin's actual demands.

“No one knows for sure — and no one can know for sure unless they try,” Mr. Charap said. He added that it was notable that Mr. Putin had not told Mr. Carlson that he had set conditions for talks, such as ousting Mr. Zelensky's government.

Mr. Charap also noted that Russia and Ukraine were already negotiating a number of issues, including the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukrainian exports from their Black Sea ports.

Regardless of Putin's intentions, analysts and Western officials say a major obstacle to possible talks is the Ukrainian public's unwillingness to compromise with an invader who has committed atrocities in their country.

“Zelensky is concerned about the domestic political consequences of pursuing a different tactic,” Charap said.

“Barring a Ukrainian demand signal” for peace talks, “there is unlikely to be any impetus from Washington,” he said.