Why Democrats are hopeful in North Carolina and nervous in Georgia

Democrats are starting to dream that President Biden can wrest North Carolina from Donald J. Trump in November.

They are less confident that Mr. Biden can hold Georgia.

The two southern battlegrounds create a tricky strategic calculus for Mr. Biden’s campaign as it kicks into high gear and decides where the money, advertising and foot soldiers go on the political map. The subtle, early tension is fueling deep jealousy among Mr. Biden’s Democratic allies in every state as they look for money and attention.

“I would certainly argue now with the Biden campaign for North Carolina over Georgia,” Roy Cooper, the governor of the Tar Heel state, said in a recent interview, noting that Mr. Biden’s defeat there by just a percentage point was his in 2020. closest in the country. “I’m obviously a bit biased. They will have to make those decisions. I think Georgia is still an extremely important state for the president and can help him reach the top.”

North Carolina appears to be a more attractive target this year, even though a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won the state since 2008. But Republicans recently nominated a candidate for governor with a well-documented history of anti-Semitic comments, staunch opposition to abortion and anti-abortion policies. LGBTQ views, and Democrats hope he will swing the Republican ticket in Mr. Biden’s favor.

Georgia now looks slightly less attractive, despite a narrow Biden victory there in 2020 that gave Democrats new ambitions to win in the South. That year, Mr. Biden faced two Democratic candidates for the Senate with control of the chamber at stake, prompting both die-hard Democrats and irregular voters to head to the polls. There is no presidential race to help Biden this year, and liberal organizers in the state have warned of money problems and lagging grassroots energy.

Both Sun Belt states are becoming more racially diverse, a demographic shift that favors Democrats. But rising Democratic credence in North Carolina and pessimism in Georgia show how the party is largely reliant on downturns this year to boost turnout, as Biden battles anemic approval ratings. It’s possible he could lose both states, with polls showing Trump ahead in both states.

Biden’s campaign and his allies have poured more money into Georgia, spending nearly $24 million on television advertising, compared to more than $5.6 million in North Carolina. But the campaign’s staffing is more robust in North Carolina, where it announced in January the hiring of three full-time staffers, including a campaign manager and senior advisers. In Georgia, the campaign has so far hired just one staffer, a senior adviser, with the election less than eight months away.

“It’s frustrating as a Georgian because we’ve put so much into Georgia,” said Erick Allen, former chairman of the Cobb County Democratic Party who is now running for a seat on the county commission. “But I understand it, because if you think about the 2020 election, the momentum that Biden was able to tap into here was also due to the energy in the statewide races,” he said, referring to Raphael Warnock’s campaigns and Jon Ossoff for the Senate.

Mr. Allen added: “You need that extra energy across the state to really make a play. And Georgia doesn’t have that this cycle.”

Mr. Biden’s campaign has not written off Georgia, saying it remains a top priority. The president visited the state on Saturday for a rally in Atlanta, a week after Jill Biden, the first lady, hosted an event there. Vice President Kamala Harris has visited the state twice this year and 11 times since his election. A slew of surrogates, including Ms. Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, have crossed Georgia in recent weeks.

“The president is in the right place,” Mr. Warnock told Democrats in Atlanta before Mr. Biden’s speech on Saturday. “Because we know the road to the White House goes through Georgia.”

Several top campaign aides, including Quentin Fulks, Mr. Biden’s top deputy campaign manager, and Michael Tyler, his communications director, were also born in Georgia. Mr. Fulks said in an interview that both North Carolina and Georgia, which each offer 16 electoral votes, were “at the top of the list” of priority.

“President Biden was the top of the ticket in 2020, and he will be at the top of the ticket again in 2024 no matter which state you look at,” he said, adding that the campaign would have a “more robust campaign.” presence” in Georgia this month. “I see a pretty nice route to Georgia, but our campaign has no illusions. We have to go in there, we have to do the work, we have to be there.”

But wary Georgia Democrats, pointing to the delay in hiring full-time staff on the ground and lagging voter enthusiasm, say that if Biden’s campaign doesn’t redouble its efforts, he may not retain a state he won with has fewer than 12,000 votes. years ago.

“The fact is that Georgia is still in the game, and of course we want to keep Georgia,” said Van Johnson, the mayor of Savannah. “But that doesn’t happen by osmosis. It happens through deliberate investments.”

He added: “North Carolina is important. There’s a governor’s race there – that’s important. But you cannot cut off your right hand and help your left hand. You need both.”

Democrats in both states are often diplomatic when it comes to discussing this sensitive topic within the parties. Governor Cooper said he had urged Mr Biden to treat North Carolina as a top target and that the country was “very high” on the list of battleground states the campaign believes it can win.

And while he was careful to say that Georgia was also important, he noted that Mr. Biden would not have the advantage of standing next to a strong Senate candidate in the state.

“You don’t have Raphael Warnock on the ballot in 2024,” he said.

Before Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, Democrats had failed in the state in every presidential cycle since 1976. They have had much more success at the state level, winning the gubernatorial race in seven of the last eight campaign cycles. The state’s last two Senate elections, in 2022 and 2020, were close, with the Republican candidate winning by less than four points each time.

Prominent Democratic groups plan to target North Carolina, especially because of the involvement of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor. His inflammatory comments and politically toxic positions stand out even in a party that has put forward many flawed nominees for top jobs in recent years.

Mr Robinson has, among other things, quoted Hitler on Facebook, engaged in Holocaust denial and referred to “transgenderism” and “homosexuality” as “garbage.” He has also expressed support for a six-week abortion ban, a position that Democrats have already adopted.

Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge 21st Century, a liberal group that studies the history of Republican candidates, said Mr. Robinson was a “dream” for opposition researchers, adding that candidates like him who are right-wing holding views on abortion “really helps define the race in the suburbs, which I think is where North Carolina will be won or lost.

Mr. Robinson’s campaign brushed off Democrats’ plans to highlight his past offensive statements and tried to link Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for governor and the state’s attorney general to bring with Mr. Biden.

“Joe Biden, Josh Stein and the Democrats are so desperate to distract voters from their colossal failures like unchecked illegal immigration, crippling inflation and more, that they are ruthlessly spreading lies to smear Mark Robinson instead of talking about the real issues of this campaign,” Mike Lonergan, Mr. Robinson’s communications director, said in a statement.

Demographic trends also explain why Biden would expand his political map to include North Carolina, the nation’s ninth most populous state.

North Carolina’s population growth continues to outpace that of the rest of the country, and to a large extent it has LED by people of color. That boom was even more pronounced in the cities: the Charlotte and Raleigh areas were among the top 10 metropolitan areas nationally in population growth, according to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Many of the new residents come from abroad blue states such as New York and California.

Marc Farinella, the North Carolina state director for Obama’s 2008 campaign, said Biden had a “plausible” case for victory in both Southern states at this point in the race.

During Obama’s first campaign, when Georgia was more reliably red, senior advisers who saw no path forward there reallocated resources to North Carolina and other states that seemed more winnable just weeks before the election.

“You take a broad view and as election day approaches, your view narrows,” Mr. Farinella said.