Xi stands by his view of China’s rise even as growth slows
Even as China’s growth falters, Xi Jinping appears absolutely confident he has the right roadmap to surpass Western rivals.
The Chinese economy has slowed down. The population is shrinking and aging. Its rival, the United States, has built a lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Xi’s statement several years ago that “the East is rising and the West is in decline” — that his country was on the right track while American power was shrinking — now seems premature, if not downright hubristic.
The problems have led to growth talking abroad that China could reach its peak before fully becoming a superpower. But Xi appears unyielding as he insists that his policies, with expanded party control and state-led industrial investment in new sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors, can secure China’s rise.
In a show of that confidence, his government announced last week that China’s economy is likely to grow by about 5 percent this year, almost the same pace as last year, according to official statistics. And Mr Xi emphasized his ambitions for a new phase of industrial growth driven by innovation, acting as if the setbacks of the past two years were an aberration.
“Faced with a technological revolution and industrial transformation, we must seize the opportunity,” he told the delegates at the annual Chinese legislative meeting in Beijing, which were shown on television applaud him heartily.
He later told another group during the legislature that China had to “win the battle for key nuclear technologies,” and he the People’s Liberation Army said officers to build “strategic capabilities in emerging areas,” which, the officers indicated, include artificial intelligence, cyber operations and space technology.
Mr Xi’s optimistic attitude may be partly for show: Chinese leaders, like politicians around the world, are reluctant to admit mistakes. And some officials have privately admitted that the economic malaise is keeping China’s ambitions and swagger in check, at least for now.
Ryan Hassthe director of the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center visited China late last year, said he came away with the feeling that “the Chinese are even a little bit chastened compared to where they were a year ago. The trajectory in which China’s economy will overtake America’s in the coming years is being pushed further into the horizon.”
Yet Mr Xi’s determination to stick to his long-term ambitions appears to be more than a show. “Xi and his team still believe that time and momentum remain on China’s side,” said Mr. Hass, a former director for China at the U.S. National Security Council. “Now that Xi is in power,” he added, it is difficult to imagine “any significant recalibration in China’s overall trajectory.”
Since taking office in 2012, Mr Xi has tightened the Communist Party’s grip on Chinese society. He has expanded state control of the economy, expanded the security apparatus to eliminate potential challenges to party rule, and confronted Washington on technology, Taiwan and other disputes.
According to Xi’s critics, his centralizing, hardline tendencies are part of China’s problems. He did not cause China’s risky dependence on the real estate market for growth, and he has worked to end it. But many economists argue he has been too heavy-handed, stifling business and innovation. Critics say Xi has also unnecessarily antagonized Western governments, pushing them to restrict access to technology and deepen security ties with Washington.
Since last year, the Chinese government has taken measures to ease these tensions. It has taken steps to revive confidence among private companies. Mr Xi has also sought to reduce tensions with the United States and other countries.
Such moderating gestures point to what Mr Xi has described as the “tactical flexibilityhe expects from Chinese officials in difficult times. But Mr. Xi said even as officials implement easing measures, they must stick to his long-term goals. He and his loyal subordinates have been defends his policy in speeches and editorials, which suggests that the doubters are short-sighted. Chinese officials and scientists have also made their moves denunciations of the West Analysts predict that China is entering an era of decline.
Mr Xi has emphasized that economic and security priorities must go hand in hand, even as China struggles with slower growth. Mr Xi is also betting that investments in manufacturing and technology can deliver new “high quality” growth by expanding industries such as new clean energy and electric vehicles.
The mantra of China’s leadership seems to be: “We are not going to grow as fast as we used to, but we are going to gain more influence over trading partners by controlling crucial parts of the global economy,” said Michael Beckley. , an associate professor at Tufts University, who has argued that China is a ‘peak power’, that is, a country whose economic rise has slowed but not yet stopped.
Some economists argue that China’s progress in these select sectors will not be enough to offset the burden caused by a decline in consumer confidence and by debt-burdened developers and local governments. China’s broader fortunes will depend heavily on whether Xi’s bet on technology can pay off.
“They see technology as the solution to every problem they face – economic, environmental, demographic, social,” he said Nadege Rolland, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Research who studies China’s strategic thinking. “If they cannot make sufficient progress in this area, it will be very difficult for them.”
Scholars in China and beyond who hope the country will take a more liberal path sometimes look to history for examples of times when party leaders made bold changes to defuse domestic and international tensions.
The last time China found itself in such a painful confluence was after the June 4, 1989, crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. The bloodshed prompted Western countries to impose sanctions on China, exacerbating the economic shock. Within a few years, however, Deng Xiaoping, then leader of China, sought to repair relations with Washington and other capitals and bring about market changes that revived growth and lured back Western investors.
Now, however, China faces much deeper-seated antagonism from other major powers. Zhu Feng, a prominent foreign policy scholar at Nanjing University in eastern China said in an interview. For example, rising Chinese exports of electric cars – which have benefited from extensive government subsidies – could revive trade tensions as the United States, Japan and Europe fear losing jobs and industrial power.
The economic and diplomatic tensions pose “the biggest challenge for China” in decades, Professor Zhu said.
Yet China’s leaders seem to believe that whatever their problems, their Western rivals face increasingly dire problems that will ultimately humiliate and break them.
Recent reports from institutions under China ruling party, army And ministry of state security point to the rancorous polarization in the United States in the run-up to the next elections. No matter who wins, Chinese analysts argueAmerican power will likely continue to be plagued by political dysfunction.
Chinese scholars have also focused on the fault lines in the Western Bloc over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing’s relations with the United States and European governments have been under severe strain because of Xi’s partnership with President Vladimir V. Putin. But as the war enters its third year, the burden of supporting Ukraine is widening rifts and “fatigue” in the United States and the US. Europe.
“The US foreign intervention cannot handle everything it tries to juggle,” said Chen Xiangyang, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, which falls under the Ministry of State Security. wrote last year. “China can exploit the contradictions and use them to its own advantage.”