Rosenthal: How the Cody Bellinger deal could impact Scott Boras’ other top clients

This can’t be what Scott Boras wanted. And now that the first of the Boras Four, Cody Bellinger, has agreed to a smaller-than-expected contract, it could only encourage the teams pursuing Boras’ other top free-agent clients to hold the line to hold.

The opt-outs in Bellinger’s reported three-year, $80 million free-agent deal with the Chicago Cubs give him a chance to return to the open market next season. Maybe he’ll get a deal closer to what some expected for him: six years, $162 million later The Athletics Tim Britton, 12 years old, $264 million by MLBTradeRumors.com.

Carlos Correa followed such a path, opting out of his initial three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Minnesota Twins to land a six-year, $200 million deal. He would have done even better if the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets hadn’t cited issues with his physicality to back out of deals worth more than $300 million.

Other Boras clients – Adrían Beltré, Dallas Keuchel and Mike Moustakas – also initially took smaller contracts, but later made up most or all of the difference. But to get such a deal, Bellinger will have to prove himself again. And he thought he did that last season by finishing 10th in National League MVP voting and winning NL Comeback Player of the Year.

His average annual worth of $26.67 million ranks 37th all-time, just below Freddie Freeman and Carlos Rodón, who both have $27 million. But Bellinger is entering his age-28 season just as another Boras client, Corey Seager, was then. he got a 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers two seasons ago.

Seager was a shortstop, which helped his value. He was also the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year and 2020 World Series MVP. On the other hand, he was coming off a season in which he played just 95 games due to a broken right hand. His previous team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, wondered if he could stay at shortstop. Others wondered about its long-term durability.

Bellinger, a centerfielder and first baseman, was the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and the 2019 MVP. He produced a much better platform season than Seager, at least on the surface. But his .307 batting average, 26 home runs and .881 OPS were built on an average exit velocity that only one in five Major Leaguers exceeded. Teams were not convinced that Bellinger’s recovery was sustainable, that he had fully overcome the problems of his injury-marred 2021 and ’22 seasons.

Part of Bellinger’s problem was that he was entering a surprisingly tepid market. Its options were limited in part by the reduced spending of high-payroll clubs such as the Mets and Padres, and the uncertainty faced by a number of teams regarding their future local television revenues. That’s how many times Boras identified – and exploited – at least one team willing to spend money. Other than the Dodgers, who opted for non-Bora alternatives, no such team emerged this season.

Rival agents and some club officials will wonder whether Boras has overplayed his hand, not only against Bellinger but also against the other members of the Boras Four – left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and third baseman Matt Chapman. Boras’ initial expectations for Bellinger are unknown, but it’s fair to ask: What if he had aimed lower? Could he have secured four years and $120 million? Five years, $145 million? An even longer deal with a lower AAV?

Now that Bellinger’s terms are public, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Snell, Montgomery and Chapman settle for similar “bridge” contracts. San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose team could use one of its pitchers as well as Chapman, has no plans to back down in his showdown with Boras. Other clubs may also be less likely to give in.

Boras can blame the decline in the market, lament the clubs pulling out financially and point to the flexibility Bellinger retains over his future. Bellinger is certainly doing well. The Dodgers non-tendered him two years ago. Boras has since given him $97.5 million in guaranteed money, bringing his career earnings to almost $150 million. And Bellinger still has a chance to get him a monster deal after this season or next.

Reasonable. The game isn’t over yet. But if you had told Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer at the start of the offseason that he would sign Bellinger for three years and $80 million, how do you think he would have reacted? With a smile wider than Lake Michigan. The smile he wears today.

(Top photo: Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)