The Athletic 133: Conference championship matches to wrap up the final debates of 2023
The 2023 season comes down to conference championship weekend. We could have the simplest and most impressive College Football Playoff field in the event’s ten-year history, we could have complete chaos, or we could have something in between, with a little last-minute drama.
Michigan’s win against Ohio State moves the Wolverines to No. 2 in this week’s rankings and leaves four undefeated Power 5 teams entering the weekend. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State win, it’s an easy selection. But the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC games can be highly competitive and see undefeated teams lose, presenting the committee with its toughest decisions since 2014.
Oregon still probably has the strongest example among one-loss teams. The Ducks were the top-ranked team last week by committee with one loss, and if they beat Washington, they will avenge their only loss of the season. Oregon entered the week as a 9.5-point favorite on BetMGM. An Alabama win against Georgia would create the most chaos, but can you give the Crimson Tide an edge over a Texas team that won in Tuscaloosa?
It is impossible to predict what the results will be and what the committee will do. Let’s take a moment to enjoy the most consistent championship conference weekend we’ve had in a long time.
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Behind the AP Top 25 voting: Oregon-Washington makes Pac-12 history and more takeaways
The regular season has come to an end, meaning teams with losing seasons have essentially held their final position in these rankings, pending some minor moves due to bowl games. But a lot can still change in the top half. Here is this week’s Athletic 133.
1-10
The only question in the top nine was where to place Ohio State, even though that could ultimately be irrelevant to the Playoff picture if the other one-loss teams are in championship games. Here the Buckeyes drop a few spots, but remain the top team with one loss, as they have two good wins (Penn State, Notre Dame) plus a one-score loss to the No. 2 team. Oregon has dominated opponents in victory, but has no wins over current top-20 teams and a one-score loss to No. 3 Washington. Texas beat Alabama and has a one-score loss to Oklahoma, but doesn’t have a second top-25 win. Alabama, of course, lost to Texas and still has an ugly performance against USF on its resume, with some good wins (Ole Miss, LSU).
All of these teams could top Ohio State (and get into the CFP) if they win their conference championship games, and they’ll still likely end up in the New Year’s Six if they lose. Do I think Ohio State would beat those teams now? Maybe not. But we try to emphasize CV and head-to-head confrontations in these rankings.
Spots #9 and 10 are important for NY6 purposes. Ole Miss actually jumps Missouri here because of the wins against LSU and Tulane (although the Green Wave played with their backup QB). While Missouri played close to Georgia, the best win was Tennessee, Kansas State or Memphis, none of which are in my top 25, and the Tigers also lost to LSU, who beat Ole Miss.
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Emerson: Georgia’s three-peat hope depends on defeating its known enemy
11-25
| Rank | Team | File | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
|
11 |
10-2 |
14 |
|
|
12 |
10-2 |
12 |
|
|
13 |
9-3 |
13 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
15 |
|
|
15 |
10-2 |
9 |
|
|
16 |
9-3 |
17 |
|
|
17 |
11-1 |
20 |
|
|
18 |
12-0 |
22 |
|
|
19 |
11-1 |
21 |
|
|
20 |
9-3 |
18 |
|
|
21 |
8-4 |
16 |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
23 |
|
|
23 |
10-2 |
24 |
|
|
24 |
11-1 |
25 |
|
|
25 |
10-2 |
26 |
Oklahoma slides to No. 11 after beating TCU. While No. 12 Penn State has better losses (Ohio State, Michigan), the Sooners have better wins (Texas, SMU, bigger margin of victory against West Virginia), and it’s possible Oklahoma could reach No. 10 if Texas pulls out the win. Big 12 and SMU win the AAC. Louisville drops to No. 15 after losing to Kentucky, one spot ahead of Notre Dame because of their head-to-head record.
Tulane defeated UTSA and remains the top Group of 5 team at No. 17 ahead of a clash with No. 25 SMU. Liberty is 12-0, and the early season win against now 10-win New Mexico State is a quality victory. James Madison is 11-1 and will bowl, but will not be eligible for the New Year’s Six. The big question is whether the CFP committee would take a two-loss AAC champion, SMU, over a potential 13-0 Liberty.
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Sampson: Notre Dame’s largely successful season cannot represent a peak
26-50
Little changes in this group. Kansas State falls out of the top 25 after a loss to Iowa State. New Mexico State is ranked No. 31 after beating Jacksonville State and moved to 10-3. Kentucky’s win against Louisville moves the Wildcats to No. 43, while No. 48 Northwestern and No. 49 Maryland move into the top 25 after wins against Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. Northwestern has the battle over the Terps. No. 45 Iowa State beats Kansas State, but trails Ohio 9-3 due to their head-to-head result. Appalachian State defeated Georgia Southern 55-27 and moved up to No. 50 with five straight wins to end the regular season.
51-75
Georgia Tech moves up to No. 51 after battling Georgia to an eight-point loss. Cal jumps to No. 55 after beating UCLA, but remains behind Auburn due to the head-to-head matchup. Fresno State fell to No. 61 after ending the regular season with losses to New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Bulldogs remain ahead of Boise State thanks to their head-to-head win. San Jose State moves up to No. 70 after beating UNLV and finishing the regular season with six straight wins.
76-100
Colorado finished the season losing eight of its last nine games after starting 3-0, and Deion Sanders’ group is ranked No. 79. Bowling Green rises to No. 83 after beating Western Michigan and winning five of the last six games, with the only loss against Toledo. No. 87 USF moved to 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14, and Alex Golesh put together one of the most impressive seasons for a first-year coach this season. Old Dominion defeated Georgia State at the buzzer to finish 6-6 and advance to No. 88. The Monarchs have played 10 one-score games this season. Utah State defeated New Mexico in double overtime and Louisiana defeated ULM, as both were bowl eligible.
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Feldman’s candidates to replace Dana Holgorsen in Houston
101-133
No. No. 103 Northern Illinois and No. 106 Eastern Michigan both won to qualify for bowling, but EMU trails Western Michigan and Central Michigan because of losses to both. Vanderbilt finishes as the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 114; Baylor is closest at number 109. Sam Houston ended the season with a walk-off field goal against Middle Tennessee, winning three of the last four games after an 0–8 start. UConn won its last two games against Sacred Heart and UMass and moved up to No. 120. With Tulsa’s win against East Carolina, the Golden Hurricane finishes at No. 125 and the Pirates finish at No. 128. Kent State finishes at No. 133, after 0 having gone -11 against the FBS competition.
The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.
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(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)