Democrats are laying out an ambitious spending plan for state legislative races
The Democratic Party organization, which focuses on interstate legislative races, is planning its largest campaign budget yet as it tries to flip five chambers in three critical swing states, and defend three recently earned majorities, according to a 2024 memo strategy of the group, obtained by The New York Times.
The group, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, plans to target Republican majorities in both chambers of the legislature in Arizona and New Hampshire, as well as the Pennsylvania Senate. And it will try to defend the razor-thin House majorities in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
The budget – at least $60 million – underlines the importance of state lawmakers. Once dismissed as mere policy laboratories, they have become arbiters in many of the country’s most pressing political debates.
The DLCC has made clear that its final spending will depend on its ability to raise money in a presidential election year, and that it has not yet reached its $60 million goal.
For much of the past decade, Democrats overtook Republicans, who invested significantly more resources into state-level racial divisions and were able to keep the 2010 redistricting cycle in check. The Republican-controlled legislature then drew gerrymander maps in critical swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that helped maintain Republican power.
But since the 2020 election, Democrats have won a string of statewide victories, at least in part because issues like abortion access and voting rights are settled not by a deadlocked U.S. Congress but by state legislatures.
Still, even with Democrats’ recent successes, Republicans continue to maintain an overall legislative advantage. controlling 57 chambers compared to the Democrats’ 41.
The fall of Roe v. Wade at the Supreme Court in 2022 “really sheds light on how important state legislatures are and how impactful they are,” said Heather Williams, chair of the committee.
The DLCC roadmap further crystallizes which states Democrats believe will be critical to the 2024 elections, such as Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan. And it reveals some of the states they think could become battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Minnesota.
The group was buoyed by record-breaking fundraising last year, raising more than $21 million. At that rate, the organization says it is on track to raise more than its $60 million goal.
The The Republican State Legislative Committee has released its 2024 goals last summer, in an effort to defend both chambers of the legislatures in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire and Texas, as well as the Pennsylvania Senate. The organization is also trying to flip both chambers in Michigan and Minnesota, as well as the Pennsylvania House.
The RSLC did not immediately respond to requests for comment on its 2024 budget and whether its goals have changed since last year.
In recent years, new investments from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the rise of the States Project, a liberal group that focuses exclusively on state lawmakers, have largely overshadowed Republican spending in the states. Democrats spent about $30 million more than Republicans on television advertising in the 2022 midterm elections, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking company. Such advantages allowed Democrats to take offense in deeply red states, trying to break up Republican supermajorities in states with Democratic governors.
In a presidential year when ad rates are rising as tens of millions of dollars flow to campaigns and super PACs, Democrats plan to stay ahead of the radio rush.
“In an environment where people are generally frustrated by the inaction in Congress and the gridlock and the kind of politics that’s going on there,” Ms. Williams said, “they’re making sure that story gets told before the airwaves get so busy, and before people get so over the election will be part of the plan.”
Most of the Democrats’ recent gains will be a top target for Republicans in 2024. Several chambers that Democrats won in 2022 have single-digit margins; both the houses in Pennsylvania and Michigan are held by a single vote. The Minnesota House has only six votes. The DLCC has identified all three chambers as priorities.
Maintaining such small majorities is a tall order, but Ms. Williams said drawing contrasts with other states was a way to drive home the stakes for Democratic-leaning voters.
“Do you want to be a Floridian, or do you want to be a Michigan?” she said. “That’s a pretty clear contrast.”