Fact-checking Biden's recent economic talking points

As he seeks re-election, President Biden is trying to convince voters of his approach to the economy and draw a contrast with his likely 2024 opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.

During the Biden administration, the economy grew by 3.1 percent between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023. Inflation has fallen significantly since peaking in summer 2022 (although it fell less than economists expected in January). And job growth continues.

However, during recent public and campaign events, Mr. Biden has made some misleading statements about the economy, jobs and taxes.

Here's a fact check.

WHAT WAS SAID

“We now have a thousand billionaires in America. Do you know what their average tax rate is: federal tax? 8.2 percent.”
— at a campaign event the end of January

This is misleading. Mr. Biden referred to a White House study that sought to use a “more comprehensive measure of income” than the way income is currently assessed. In other words, it provided a hypothetical representation of what the rate would be if the law were different.

More specifically, the study, released in 2021, including gains on unsold shares. By law, these gains are not taxed until the asset is sold. The report estimated that the average federal income tax rate paid by the 400 wealthiest families in the United States is 8.2 percent.

While there is debate about whether the law should take that kind of income into account, presenting that 8.2 figure without any explanation leaves room for false impressions, said Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the right-wing Tax Foundation.

For example, the public may then incorrectly compare that 8.2 percent with other average federal income tax rates. To make a more accurate comparison with, say, the tax rate of someone on a middle income, the same exercise would have to be done to also include their unrealized gains, such as the increased value in investment accounts or homes, Mr. Watson said. .

(The Tax Foundation has also argued that the White House analysis should also take into account corporate taxes, since while many company founders hold stock in their companies, the companies are taxed on their profits every year.)

Under the law, it is currently estimated that the top 1 percent of earners in the United States pay an average federal income tax rate of more than 20 percent. an analysis by the Ministry of Finance in November. An IRS report A study of the top 400 individual income tax returns found that those taxpayers paid an average income tax rate of about 23 percent in 2014.

WHAT WAS SAID

“I signed the CHIPS and Science Act, which has attracted $640 billion in investment from private companies building factories, re-creating jobs in America.”
— during an event this month

False. Estimates of private investment, spurred by the CHIPS and Science Act, which gave billions to the chip industry, fall short of $640 billion. By some measures it's a fraction of that: One estimate from the Semiconductor Industry Association estimates the figure at around $220 billion.

Mr. Biden signed the legislation in August 2022, which included about $52 billion in subsidies and tax breaks for manufacturers of semiconductors — chips used in electronics — to open or expand in the United States. It also invested heavily in research into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other technologies.

Mr. Biden referred to a White House estimate of private investments made in various industries over the course of his presidency, not only in response to the CHIPS legislation, but also as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

That estimate indicated $649 billion in private investment in multiple 21st century industries, including clean energy and electric vehicles. The White House says it arrived at this figure by calculating projects announced in public sources.

WHAT WAS SAID

'And let's make something clear. Trump is talking about putting checks in his pockets. But in 2021, as soon as I took office, I was the guy who sent all of you those $1,400 checks.
— at a campaign event the end of January

This needs context. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump signed legislation providing for this stimulus payments for Americans as the United States grappled with the coronavirus.

In March 2020, Mr. Trump signed a $2 trillion measure known as the CARES Act, which provides payments of $1,200 per person and another $500 per child. Months later, in December 2020, Mr. Trump signed a stimulus package that included $600 checks and another $600 per child. (He had pushed for the second round of payments to be increased to $2,000.)

Two months after taking office, in March 2021, Mr. Biden signed a $1.9 trillion economic relief package called the American Rescue Plan Act, which provides payments of $1,400 per person and another $1,400 per child.

WHAT WAS SAID

“The only president other than Donald Trump to lose his job during an administration was Herbert Hoover.”
— at a campaign event the end of January

This needs context. Mr. Biden is correct that Mr. Trump ended his term with a negative jobs record — the only president to do so after World War II — but omits that this happened because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Based on January 2017, when Trump was inaugurated, there were 145.6 million jobs, according to figures. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. When he left in January 2021, there were 142.9 million jobs. That is a decrease of 2.7 million jobs, or 1.9 percent.

But before the pandemic hit, Mr. Trump had a positive jobs record. The number of jobs had increased from 145.6 million jobs in January 2017 to 152 million jobs in January 2020 – an increase of 6.4 million jobs, or 4.4 percent.

About half of the nearly 22 million jobs lost in early 2020 were restored before Trump left office.

The same Bureau of Labor Statistics data only goes back to 1939, several years after Mr. Hoover left the White House in 1933. But Mr. Hoover was president at the beginning of the Great Depression, and when he left office, almost a quarter of the working population was unemployed.

Curious about the accuracy of a claim? Email factcheck@nytimes.com.