Friday briefing: Two years of war in Ukraine

Two years of war in Ukraine

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Two years later, the war is in an uncertain phase.

Ukraine exceeded the expectations of many around the world by outlasting and then driving back Russian forces in the first year of the war. But the second year was largely defined by brutal clashes, with no major breakthroughs on land on either side.

The third year of the war begins with Ukraine on the defensive and struggling to hold the line, as the country is outgunned and outgunned, just as in the early days of the war.

To get a sense of where the war is and where it’s going, I spoke with Marc Santora, who is in Kiev and has been covering the war since it began.

Amelia: Russia has just taken Avdiivka and won a great symbolic victory. Does that mean it has the momentum right now?

Marc: This winter is probably the most precarious situation Ukraine has found itself in since the first weeks of the war. And as we enter this third year, the advantage certainly lies with Russia.

The Russians know this is a moment of Ukrainian weakness. There are two important reasons for this.

First, U.S. military aid has been halted for months, and it is unclear if or when more will arrive. When you talk to a commander during my trips to the front, that’s the main thing they talk about: lack of ammunition and resources.

And secondly: manpower. The less ammunition they have, the deadlier the fighting becomes for the Ukrainians. And they are already struggling to get people to fill the troops who are exhausted after two years of fighting.

What is your sense of the mood – at the front and in Kiev?

There is a sense of exhaustion that is palpable.

The soldiers are still as determined as ever. But they are exhausted. Many of them haven’t had a break in months and months. They haven’t seen their families. And how do you measure exhaustion for citizens? One way is the daily air raid sirens. By some counts, there have been 3,000 to 5,000 hours of alarms. That’s four months that people spend in a bunker. It’s kind of hard to keep your wits about you.

The government does not release death toll figures, but funerals take place every day. Everyone here knows someone who was killed or injured during the fighting. It is a country in constant mourning. Yet recent polls show that 90 percent believe they will win the war – as long as they have the support of their allies.

How has your thinking about the future of war changed in recent weeks or months?

It will be a long war that will probably only become more deadly. And I don’t think people have really grappled with what a Ukrainian loss would look like.

The loss of Ukraine does not just mean a new government. If Ukraine really loses, it means that there will be a huge amount of bloodshed, a huge new refugee crisis will arise, Russia will be on the borders of NATO countries and it will be encouraged. The consequences are great.

Most military analysts believe that if Ukraine can hold the line and rebuild its forces this year, it may be in a better position to go on the offensive. So you could see that – not next year – but the year after was the decisive year. But war is extremely unpredictable.

This year is a year of rebuilding strength in terms of manpower and military capabilities, and at the same time, during reconstruction, of defending and preventing new major Russian achievements.

The latest news about Russia and Ukraine:

• The mother of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, said Russian authorities will not release his remains unless she agrees to a “secret burial.”

• Sanctions against Russia have not worked nearly as well as intended: outside North America and Europe, President Vladimir Putin’s influence is strong or growing.

Some older Americans have given up on romantic love because they enjoy being alone. “I really love my own business,” says Joy Lorton, 80, adding, “It all goes back to the same word: freedom.”

Lives lived: Jayo Archer, a daring Australian motorcyclist who became the first to perform a triple flip in a freestyle motocross competition, died this week while practicing. He was 27.

US tries to return to the moon

A private spacecraft, Odysseus, will attempt to land on the moon approximately two and a half hours after we send this newsletter. It would be the first American moon landing in more than fifty years – and the first private spacecraft to make a soft landing there. Here’s a live briefing.

The mission’s main customer is NASA, which paid $118 million to deliver six instruments to the moon. The mission will last about seven days, until a frigid two-week moon night begins, which Odysseus was not built to survive.