A defeat for Modi’s party in South India cheers his rivals

Initial results from state elections in Karnataka, in India’s relatively affluent south, pointed to a toppling of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party – a boost to the otherwise struggling opposition ahead of next year’s general election.

The Indian National Congress, which ruled India for much of its time since independence before being overthrown by the rise of Mr Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party, won a majority of seats in the local elections. assembly in Karnataka.

Karnataka, home to about 65 million people and India’s money-rich technology hub, is the only southern state where Modi’s Hindu nationalist party has managed to run a government. Modi’s stronghold in North India.

With about half of the votes counted, the Congress party was expected to win at least 135 of the assembly’s 224 seats, easily forming the government.

In the latter part of the campaign for the state, with a strong voter turnout of around 73 per cent, Mr Modi personally threw himself into the race. He held about 20 rallies there, including several where supporters showered him with flower petals as he drove past in an open car.

The election over popular Mr Modi was a last-ditch effort after the party’s usual attempts to polarize the electorate along religious lines – such as banning Muslim girls from wearing head coverings as part of their school uniform – seemed to fail to attract attention. of voters from allegations of local corruption among BJP members.

“We have failed to reach the target despite the many efforts of everyone, directly from our prime minister,” said Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP chief minister of the state, admitting defeat on Saturday.

While the victory in Karnataka could be a bull’s-eye for the national opposition, which is trying to recover from beatings by Modi’s party in the 2019 and 2014 national elections, analysts warned that Congress would still face a formidable opponent in the Mr Modi when he seeks a third term early next year.

The incumbent rarely wins in Karnataka, where control has largely alternated between Congress and the BJP in recent years. Caste rivalry and direct governance issues, such as corruption, loom in local elections. Local affiliations do not necessarily translate into voting for the National Assembly in the Indian parliamentary system, which determines who is the prime minister.

Mr Modi’s popularity remains strong, with many voters in Karnataka – who voted against his local leaders over rising prices, corruption and polarizing politics – still privately voicing their affection for him.

On a national level, Congress has struggled to match Mr Modi’s call.

Rahul Gandhi, the most recognized leader of the Congress and often touted as the contender, built up some momentum by taking a long walk across India, covering 3,500 kilometers in four months.

But just as he seemed to be shedding Modi’s label of entitled dynasty and presenting himself as a credible leader around whom a coalition of skeptical regional allies could rally to challenge Mr Modi, the BJP bogged him down in a legal challenge.

An old and dubious case of defamation has been revived in recent months, and the judge in Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat imposed the maximum sentence on Mr Gandhi, disqualifying him from his parliamentary seat. Mr Gandhi’s party has called the case a political conspiracy akin to match fixing and has fought to keep him out of jail.

Aarti Jerath, a political commentator in New Delhi, said that while voting patterns in local elections do not immediately translate into support in national elections, the Congress party will learn lessons from its victory in Karnataka – by empowering local leaders and boosting the campaign. focus on bread-and-butter issues rather than turn it into a popularity contest against the formidable Mr Modi.

“This is a great morale booster for Congress — the first victory in a major state after a string of defeats,” she said.