Mood in Indonesia: three tips for climate change
Coal, nickel, palm oil, rainforests.
Indonesia's resources are important to the rest of the world. Hence the presidential elections.
Early results Wednesday in the world's third-largest democracy heralded the victory of Prabowo Subianto, a former army general with links to human rights abuses, as the country's next president. The new administration's approach to managing its natural resources could have a significant impact on the world's ability to keep global warming at relatively safe levels.
Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel and something the world must stop burning quickly to avoid the worst effects of global warming. But Indonesia also has vast nickel reserves, which is crucial for battery production and the transition to cleaner energy.
Mr Prabowom has said he is in favor of the country's transition to a gradual phase-out of coal energy. He also supports a ban on raw nickel exports, intended to encourage a domestic battery industry, that has been in place for several years.
Those two initiatives clash.
Processing nickel requires enormous amounts of energy. Indonesia is therefore busy building new coal-fired power stations. That, in turn, has increased Indonesia's greenhouse gas emissions.
Mr. Prabowo has cast himself as a candidate who would largely continue the policies of the outgoing president, Joko Widodo, whose government imposed the nickel export ban.
Indonesia's global climate role is important in another way. The country has vast forests that are essential to efforts to slow global warming because they remove so much planet-warming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
However, Indonesia is also the largest exporter of palm oil, which is used in a number of applications everyday products, from soap to ice creamand palm oil production has led to severe deforestation in recent decades. Although deforestation has declined recently, Mr Prabowo's promises to produce more biofuels could quickly reverse these gains.
In short, what happens in Indonesia does not stay in Indonesia.
The use of coal is doubled
Indonesia is huge coal exporter, with China as the main customer. Coal is also crucial for domestic energy, providing most of Indonesia's electricity.
Indonesia is part of a $20 billion global deal, led by the United States, to retire a number of Indonesian coal-fired power stations ahead of schedule. That agreement, called the Just Energy Transition Partnership, has not yet resulted in specific plans to close coal-fired power stations.
Despite the agreement on the coal transition, the Indonesian coal fleet is even expanding. Indonesia's carbon dioxide emissions rose more than 20 percent in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available, according to Climate Action Tracker, an independent organization that assesses country-level emissions targets. It ruled that Indonesia's climate targets were “criticism is insufficient.”
Nickel makes it a powerhouse for new energy
Mr Joko's government cited Indonesia as playing a central role in the global transition to electric vehicles. By banning the export of nickel ore, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, he urged international companies to invest in nickel processing in the country.
China obliges. Chinese company Tsingshan set up factories to process nickel ore to make batteries for electric vehicles, as well as other products such as stainless steel. But that drives up coal energy.
With Chinese support, Indonesia is building a fleet of new coal-fired power plants to supply its booming nickel processing facilities. Processed nickel is more lucrative than nickel ore, although it poses a host of social and environmental risks. A recent report from the nonprofit research and advocacy group Climate Rights International found that nickel mining and processing units had violated the rights of indigenous communities and caused water and air pollution.
Mr. Prabowo said during his campaign that he would continue the ban on mineral exports. S&P Global, a company that analyzes commodity trends, said the ban “are likely to remain largely unchanged.”
Biofuels increase concerns about deforestation
Indonesia is already the largest exporter of palm oil in the world. Mr Prabowo has proposed setting up a separate ministry for palm oil.
Mr Prabowo campaigned to expand production of biofuels from crops such as palm oil, cassava and sugar cane. Environmentalists worry that a push for biofuels could lead to deforestation, reversing gains Indonesia has made in protecting its rich forests.
Mr Prabowo, the current defense minister, was removed from the army after being linked to the kidnapping of political dissidents. His rights record has raised concerns among climate activists. During his campaign, Mr Prabowo rejected such questions. He has never been charged in court.
Should he become the eventual winner of Wednesday's elections, said Firdaus Cahyadi, a campaigner for 350.org, which supports action on global warming, “it will make it difficult for civil society movements in Indonesia, including the environmental and climate movements.”