Which version of an ex-general did Indonesia just vote for?

A strong apparatchik accused of multiple human rights violations. A violent nationalist. A devout defender of Muslims. A loyal acolyte of a popular president with few achievements of his own.

Prabowo Subianto has been called all these names over the years he has sought power in Indonesia. He is now expected to be the country's next president. Unofficial figures from Wednesday's election show that he won a decisive victory, with almost 60 percent of the vote.

During the campaign, Mr. Prabowo repeatedly pledged to continue along the path and policies set by Joko Widodo, the popular outgoing president. That would mean spending billions of dollars on welfare programs such as school meals, health care and housing. Mr Joko, who defeated Mr Probowo in previous elections and will step down in October, also appeared to offer support to his former rival, through his 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who will become Mr Joko. Prabowo's vice president.

But it remains unclear what kind of leader Mr. Prabowo, 72, will be. In the past he has questioned the need for democracy, and is known for his volatile temper and erratic behavior. During this campaign he emphasized his commitment to democracy.

“With Prabowo, we don't trust him, so he will have much less room to maneuver” from the public, said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, who was a senior adviser to Indonesia's vice president in the 2000s. “He will probably be happy to show his Democratic credentials.”

Indonesia's future is of crucial importance to the world. With approximately 270 million inhabitants, it is the fourth most populous country in the world and plays a major role in both geopolitics and climate change. It is the largest exporter of coal and has large reserves of nickel, a key component of electric car batteries. Officials in the United States consider the country one of the world's most important swing states in the battle for influence with China.

At the turn of the century, Indonesia was in turmoil. Soldiers shot student activists in the streets, the country's ethnic Chinese minority was targeted in communal violence and terrorist attacks became increasingly common.

Pro-democracy protests led to the fall of Suharto, the dictator who ruled Indonesia for more than 30 years and was once Mr. Prabowo's father-in-law. The military was largely sidelined by politics, and elections became crucial. When Mr. Joko won the presidency in 2014, he marked a major first: a leader who did not come from the political or military elite, and who had campaigned as a hard-nosed reformer.

Mr Joko embarked on ambitious infrastructure and welfare programmes, such as building thousands of kilometers of roads and introducing universal healthcare. He won a second term, defeating the same opponent as the first time: Mr. Prabowo. He then appointed Mr Prabowo as his defense minister, effectively co-opting his main rival.

About a year ago, Mr. Joko tried to put Mr. Prabowo and Ganjar Pranowo, the heir apparent of Mr. Joko's party, on the same ticket, Mr. Ganjar said. Mr. Prabowo's argument was that he was seeking the presidency for only one term, Mr. Ganjar said, adding: “I didn't want that. So there was no deal.”

In October, Mr. Joko's brother-in-law cast the deciding vote at the Constitutional Court to broaden eligibility for vice-presidential candidates, allowing Mr. Joko's son Gibran to run for Mr. Prabowo. That, critics say, publicly linked Mr. Prabowo's candidacy to Mr. Joko's dynastic aspirations and continued influence.

“Jokowi clearly dreams that Prabowo will allow him to ride in the backseat, which I don't think will be the case,” Ms. Dewi said, using the president's nickname. “Maybe Prabowo will surrender to Jokowi in the first days or weeks, but I don't think any self-respecting president will allow a former president to give him too much advice.”

Mr. Prabowo's supporters say he learned from Mr. Joko how to appeal to the public. During this election campaign, Mr Prabowo has dropped his hardline nationalist and Islamist allies.

Instead, he tried to cultivate a folksy, grandfatherly image with awkward dances at rallies and video clips on social media. Many young people – the largest voting bloc in Indonesia – care little about its past.

For some Indonesians, many of whom pinned their hopes on Mr Joko, Mr Prabowo's rise with the backing of the outgoing president appears to be a setback for the country's hard-won democracy.

“The 2024 elections are a red flag that will be remembered by the public,” said Media Wahyudi Askar, director of public policy at the Center for Economics and Legal Studies. “Although Prabowo and Jokowi ultimately emerged as winners, there is a significant part of society that is dissatisfied.”

The official election results will not be announced for another month, and Mr Prabowo's opponents have said it is too early to declare a winner. But on Wednesday, when it was clear that Mr Prabowo had a commanding lead, some expressed concerns about their future.

“Many people are afraid,” said Wasisto Raharjo Jati, researcher at the National Agency for Research and Innovation. “I think this is because we are tormented by the phobia of the New Order era,” he said, referring to the reign of Suharto, Mr. Prabowo's former father-in-law.

During that time, Mr. Prabowo was the commander of the feared special forces. He was found to have ordered the kidnapping of political dissidents in 1998, for which he was later fired by the army. More than a dozen people are still missing and feared dead. That record led to him being banned from entering the United States for nearly two decades.

On Wednesday evening, Mr. Prabowo tried to portray himself as a unifying figure.

“Now that the campaign is over, we are reunited, brothers and sisters,” he told his supporters. “Let's forget harsh words. Fighting is normal between brothers and sisters. But arguments should not become long-lasting divisions.”

Mr Prabowo presented a plan called “Golden Indonesia 2045” that he said would boost the country's development in the coming decades. He has promised to provide free lunches and milk to schoolchildren and build modern hospitals in every regency and city. He has also said he would build 3 million houses for the needy and raise teachers' salaries.

His rivals have questioned the budget needed for all these programs. Mr. Prabowo's free lunch program would cost as much as $25.6 billion a year.

Mr Prabowo says he sees Indonesia's domestic prosperity as a way for the country to gain a stronger global presence. He has no plans to deviate from Indonesia's long non-aligned foreign policy.

Mr. Prabowo was educated in England and Switzerland. He joined the Army and trained at Fort Bragg in North Carolina and Fort Benning in Georgia in the 1980s. But Mr Prabowo has always emphasized the importance of Indonesian autonomy in a post-colonial world. Last November, for example, he criticized the European Union for a deforestation regulation that would prevent much of Indonesia's key exports from entering the European market.

“I think sometimes there is a little bit of unfairness,” he said. “It was the Europeans who forced us to plant tea, coffee, rubber and chocolate. And now you're saying we're destroying our forests? You destroyed our forests first.”

Muktita Suhartono, Hasya Nindita And Rin Hindryati reporting contributed.