Wednesday briefing: Indonesia votes today
Indonesia goes to the polls
The world's third-largest democracy is currently selecting not only a new president, but also parliamentarians and local representatives.
The current president, Joko Widodo, appears to have formed an alliance with Prabowo Subianto without explicitly supporting him, and polls show Prabowo with a healthy lead. But for many he is associated with Suharto, who ruled with an iron fist from the 1960s to the late 1990s. Prabowo was a general in Suharto's army and was eventually fired in 1998 for ordering the kidnapping of student activists.
Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, and Ganjar Pranowo, who governed Central Java, are also candidates for president. The momentum has been building for Anies, who is running on a platform for change.
To get a clearer idea of what to look for, I turned to Sui-Lee Wee, our Southeast Asia bureau chief, who is in Jakarta covering the elections.
What is the stakes of these elections, both internationally and in Indonesia?
These elections are important far beyond the borders of Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and is often seen as a “swing state” in the battle for influence between the US and China in Asia. Indonesia is also one of the world's largest CO2 emitters and one of the largest global producers of coal, nickel and palm oil, so whoever wins the presidency could have a major impact on the supply chains of many international companies, but more importantly, on the future of the climate. change.
Domestically, it marks the end of the ten-year term of popular incumbent President Joko Widodo. He leaves office with an approval rating of about 70 to 80 percent and this election is essentially a referendum on his legacy. He has transformed Indonesia into one of Southeast Asia's biggest economic success stories, but has also presided over the country's democratic backsliding. This time, voters will cast a vote for continuity or change. Polls show that they mainly want continuity.
Has anything changed that people should look for or expect?
The question now in Indonesia is whether Prabowo Subianto, the country's defense minister, will win in one round or whether he will face a second round. Two weeks ago it was very uncertain, but it now seems more likely that he could win in one round by gaining more than 50 percent of the votes. If he does not, the country will enter a second round on June 26.
If Prabowo wins, how likely is it that the country will experience an authoritarian slide?
This is still uncertain. His supporters say he is now much more pragmatic and understands Joko's appeal, so he is likely to focus his efforts on infrastructure development and economic growth. There is also a belief that because the political establishment has benefited so much from democracy, it would not allow Indonesia to fall back into dictatorship. But what people fear is the slow erosion of democratic norms, which was started by Joko but could accelerate under a leader who once claimed that Indonesia does not need democracy or elections.
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