Iran and the US held secret talks on proxy attacks and a ceasefire
Iran and the United States held secret, indirect talks in Oman in January on the escalating threat that the Houthis in Yemen pose to shipping in the Red Sea, and on attacks on US bases by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Iran said and Iranian authorities. U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.
The secret talks took place on January 10 in Muscat, Oman’s capital, with Omani officials passing messages back and forth between delegations of Iranians and Americans sitting in separate rooms. The delegations were led by Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and chief nuclear negotiator, and Brett McGurk, President Biden’s Middle East coordinator.
The meeting, first The Financial Times reports this This week marked the first time in nearly eight months that Iranian and U.S. officials held face-to-face negotiations — albeit indirectly. U.S. officials said Iran requested the meeting in January and the Omanis strongly recommended that the United States accept it.
Since the start of the war in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the United States and Iran have reassured each other that neither was seeking a direct confrontation, a position conveyed in messages sent through intermediaries passed on.
But in Oman, both sides had a clear request from the other, U.S. and Iranian officials said.
Washington wanted Iran to rein in its proxies to stop Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and targeting US bases in Iraq and Syria. Tehran, in turn, wanted the Biden administration to broker a ceasefire in Gaza.
However, no agreement was reached and within hours of Mr McGurk leaving the meeting with the Iranians, the United States led military strikes on multiple Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11. In early February, the United States launched attacks on Iran-affiliated military bases in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the killing of three American soldiers in an attack by Iraqi militias near Iran.
Attacks on US bases in Iraq have since ended, and there have been only a few reports of such attacks in Syria.
A senior US official said the United States was involved in the talks to show that even as tensions rose, Washington was still open to diplomacy with Iran – but that if the dialogue failed to produce results, the United States would use force would use.
Two Iranian officials, one from the State Department, said that Iran maintained during the talks that it had no control over the activities of the militia, especially the Houthis, but that it could use its influence over them to ensure that all attacks would come to a successful end. a halt if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza – but not before.
Iran and the United States have continued to exchange regular messages about the proxy militias and a ceasefire since their meeting in January, with the Omanis acting as intermediaries, U.S. and Iranian officials said.
“Having communication channels, even if indirect, can certainly be useful in reducing the possibility of miscalculations and misunderstandings,” said Ali Vaez, the Iranian director of International Crisis Group. “But as we have seen since then, especially but certainly not exclusively following the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, tensions between the two sides remain significant.”
The United States and Iran both made decisions in February to avoid direct war. U.S. forces avoided direct hits on Iran in their military response, and Iran convinced the militia in Iraq to stop attacks on U.S. bases and the militias in Syria to reduce the intensity of the attacks and prevent American deaths.
But according to the Pentagon, the Houthis have continued with 102 attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 19. As of March 14, the United States had carried out 44 strikes on Houthi targets, but these attacks have not deterred the Houthis, who have threatened to use more advanced weapons.
A senior US official said the Houthis had conducted a test launch of a new intermediate-range missile. The official said reports in Russian news media this week about the Houthis gaining access to hypersonic missiles were most likely inaccurate.
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said Thursday that the Houthis would expand their targeting range to prevent Israeli-affiliated ships from passing through the Indian Ocean and the Cape of Good Hope, along Africa’s far southern coast.
Analysts said the Houthis had proven to be a winning card for Iran in the current conflict, damaging international shipping and raising the stakes of the Gaza war beyond the region. It is a lever that Iran will not easily give up, analysts said.
Last spring, Iranian and American delegations in Oman negotiated a deal to release American prisoners held in Iran in exchange for the release of about $6 billion from Iran’s frozen oil revenues in South Korea. They also reached an unofficial agreement to defuse tensions in the region and reduce the severity of attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria.
“The goal of the recent negotiations in Oman was for both sides to return to that unofficial agreement and keep tensions at a low level,” said Sasan Karimi, a political analyst in Tehran. “We should not expect breakthroughs between Iran and the US; for the time being it is all limited to the region. They want Iran to use its persuasive power on the militia, and Iran says, not so fast, not until you give us a ceasefire.
Michael D. Shear contributed reporting from Washington.