The Irish Prime Minister resigned. So what’s going to happen now?

The leader of the Republic of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, resigned on Wednesday, sparking a political battle in the government following his announcement outside the Houses of Parliament in Dublin.

Mr Varadkar’s decision, which he attributed to both “personal and political” reasons, was unexpected as some members of his government were given only a few hours’ notice of his plans.

Mr Varadkar, a doctor and former health minister, first became taoiseach, or prime minister, in 2017, at a time when his Fine Gael party was still one of the country’s two dominant parties, a position it has held since had occupied the foundation almost continuously. of the Irish state.

However, public opinion has changed during his tenure and as Fine Gael’s popularity waned, his departure seemed inevitable, experts say. As Ireland grapples with what comes next for its government, here’s what you need to know.

Who could be Ireland’s next leader?

Despite opposition calls for a general election, Mr Varadkar’s resignation does not mean the end of the current government.

Fine Gael, a centre-right party, currently governs in coalition with two other parties: Fianna Fáil, its long-time rival, and the Green Party. Under the terms of their power-sharing arrangement, it is up to Fine Gael to appoint a new leader, who will then become Prime Minister.

Due to the surprise nature of Mr Varadkar’s announcement, there was no immediate successor waiting in the wings, leading to an initial flurry of speculation about who could fill his role.

However, on Thursday afternoon it appeared that Simon Harris, the education minister, could compete for the undisputed role. He has spoken for years about his desire to one day lead the party and was nominated for the role on Thursday. Mr Harris, who is 37, would become the youngest ever taoiseach if he becomes leader of the party, surpassing Mr Varadkar, who initially took the leadership role at the age of 38. So far, it appears other members of the party are rallying. around him.

Other potential contenders included fellow party members Paschal Donohoe, the minister of public expenditure and reform, and Heather Humphreys, the minister of social protection. Both are long-time Fine Gael MPs, but both have said in the past 24 hours that they had no intention of putting themselves forward.

How long will it take before the new leader is announced?

In his resignation speech, Mr Varadkar outlined an ambitious timeline for Fine Gael to appoint a new leader, saying he wanted a successor to be chosen before the party’s annual conference on April 6. That person would then become prime minister when parliament resumed. on April 9, after an Easter holiday.

However, the process of getting there could become complicated if more than one lawmaker contests the election.

One reason for the urgency to elect a new leader is that Ireland will hold local and European elections in June.

In addition, Ireland’s Dáil, the country’s popularly elected lower house, has a maximum term of office of five years, meaning national elections must be held before March 22, 2025. That means whoever replaces Mr Varadkar will serve as taoiseach for less money. than one year before elections are called.

What does this mean for Irish politics?

Mr. Varadkar, the young, gay son of an Irish mother and an Indian father, once seemed an emblem of a new, more energetic and inclusive Ireland. Now he is the face of an increasingly unpopular establishment.

His resignation follows years of declining support for long-dominant parties Fine Gael, which slipped to third place at the last 2020 general election, and Fianna Fail. It crystallizes the perception that Irish politics is in a moment of change and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin, once the political arm of the IRA, rose from its position as a fringe player to won the most votes in the last election. No party came close to a majority, forcing the formation of a coalition.

All major parties face political headwinds, while Ireland faces a number of domestic challenges. A serious housing shortage – partly caused by the failure of successive governments to invest in affordable housing – and a cost-of-living crisis have led to widespread frustration among the political establishment.

With the number of asylum seekers arriving in the country rising sharply, the government has faced an anti-immigration backlash, driven in part by far-right rhetoric online. This has increasingly turned into violence, with arsonists being targeted planned housing for asylum seekersand a violent riot in Dublin late last year that attracted international attention.

Concerns about immigration appear to favor independent candidates. Even Sinn Féin, still the most popular party in the polls, has seen that his support disappears. And with a general election looming, the country’s leading politicians must now grapple with how to tackle a deeply divisive issue without inflaming it further.