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During his tour of the Middle East this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sounded optimistic about the prospect of Arab governments working together to plan for Gaza’s post-war future. He said he believed they were willing to do “important things to help stabilize Gaza. and revive it,” as he put it on Monday during a stop in Saudi Arabia.
But, at least publicly, Arab officials have been keen to distance themselves from discussions about Gaza’s reconstruction and governance — especially as Israeli bombs continue to fall on more than two million Palestinians trapped in the besieged enclave.
Instead, they have emphasized that Israel and the United States must implement a ceasefire and then take steps toward a goal that Arab states have been pursuing for decades: a serious path toward the creation of a Palestinian state .
“Without a stable, independent sovereign nation for the Palestinians, nothing else matters because it will not provide a long-term solution to the conflict we see now,” said Prince Khalid bin Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to Britain. , told the BBC Tuesday.
And on Sunday, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said at a press conference with Mr Blinken in Qatar: “Gaza is part of the Palestinian occupied territory, which should be under Palestinian administration and leadership.” He added: “There can be no peace in the region without a comprehensive and just settlement.”
Mr Blinken, who has visited Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and Israel since beginning his latest diplomatic mission on Friday, has also stressed the importance of a path to a Palestinian state.
Officially, Arab governments have largely rejected the idea that they could participate in post-war planning before a ceasefire, arguing that this would amount to helping Israel. cleaning up his mess. And they hesitate to be seen as part of Israeli visions for Gaza’s future.
Mahmoud al-Habbash, a close adviser to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, said recent high-level meetings held by Mr Abbas focused solely on ending the war and addressing humanitarian problems. He strongly denied that they had touched Gaza’s future.
“All these meetings, consultations and efforts are aimed at stopping the aggression,” he said.
But behind the scenes, Arab officials are engaged in more pragmatic discussions, arguing that the Palestinian Authority — which long pursued a Palestinian state while sidelined by successive Israeli governments — is the natural candidate to rule post-war Gaza. That position has not changed, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu virtually ruling out any governing role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza.
When Abbas met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt on Monday, it was partly to coordinate positions on Gaza, a Palestinian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official noted that Mr. Abbas was pushing for a united Arab position that supports a solution to the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, rather than treating Gaza in isolation.
And on Wednesday, Mr. Abbas plans to travel to Jordan to take part in a summit with Mr. Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan to discuss the situation in Gaza, the Jordanian state news agency reported.
Mr Abbas also hopes that a five-member committee – including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the Palestinians – will meet in the future to further coordinate diplomatic efforts, the Palestinian official said.
“What’s happening is building consensus on the different routes to the next day,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based research organization, referring to how Gaza will become controlled when fighting ends.
Arab countries themselves have different views on what a future government in Gaza should look like, and how capable the Palestinian Authority is of taking over the enclave. Before the war, Gaza was ruled for years by Hamas, the armed group that carried out the October 7 attacks in Israel.
Palestinian analysts say the Palestinian Authority’s ability to govern Gaza depends on achieving unity with Hamas, which they predicted would remain a crucial part of Palestinian politics after the war – although Israel has repeatedly said it will not stop fighting until Hamas is destroyed.
When Israel withdrew all its troops and civilians from Gaza in 2005, it handed over power there to the Palestinian Authority. But Fatah, the political faction that controls the Palestinian Authority, lost parliamentary elections to Hamas the following year. In 2007, Hamas seized power in Gaza in a brief and brutal civil war that divided Palestinians not only territorially but also politically.
“Abbas and the Palestinian Authority want to bring Gaza back under their control – they believe the war has created a great opportunity for them,” said Jehad Harb, a Ramallah-based analyst. “But without reconciling with Hamas, they will have difficulty governing there. Hamas is a powerful force that will remain in Gaza.”
For some Arab states, the mixed messaging on Gaza’s future reflects “their fluidity of thinking, and for others the desperation of choices,” Bader Al-Saif said., a professor at Kuwait University.
“There are no easy options,” he said.
Arab public opinion – deep violent towards Israel and the United States, especially since the start of the war – is important, Mr Al-Saif added.
“Any day-after scenario that does not respond to the masses’ quest for dignity and justice for the Palestinians will ultimately come back to bite the various states in the region,” he said. “I would keep that in mind if I were a policymaker.”