Many Israelis want Netanyahu out. But there is no easy path to doing this.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is on his last legs, it is widely believed, and will be forced to leave his post once the war against Hamas in Gaza ends.
Historically unpopular in the polls, he has been blamed for the government and security failures that led to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, the killing of an estimated 1,200 Israelis and the troubled war that followed. He faces a long-running trial on several corruption charges.
And he has defied President Biden on US efforts to create a post-war path to a two-state solution, with a demilitarized Palestine alongside Israel. While opposition to a Palestinian state is popular among Israelis, defying Washington is considered risky.
But the 74-year-old Netanyahu, known everywhere as “Bibi,” has been a remarkable dancer in the complicated choreography of Israeli politics, surviving many previous predictions of his demise. And new elections in Israel are not legally required until the end of October 2026.
“We would all like to look beyond Bibi,” said Anshel Pfeffer, an analyst at the left-wing newspaper Haaretz. “But there is no way to force him to resign.”
So how could Mr Netanyahu leave office before then? Here are the most likely paths, along with their pitfalls.
Path 1: His coalition collapses
The easiest way to oust Netanyahu is for his coalition to disintegrate. He governs with 64 seats in the 120-member Knesset, the parliament. The resignation of just five members would thus bring down the government and force elections within three months.
Mr Netanyahu leads the Likud party, which won 32 seats in November 2022, the most of any party. But to form a government he had to bring in five other parties, including two small far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Their combined thirteen seats keep Netanyahu in power while acting as a kind of far-right opposition within the government itself.
Mr Smotrich and Mr Ben-Gvir are not part of the wartime security cabinet, which also includes centre-right opposition figures such as Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who agreed to join the government after October 7, leaving the coalition for the time being is strengthened. And Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir have been fierce in their opposition to any idea of a Palestinian state as they sought to promote the resettlement of Israeli citizens in Gaza after the war.
More painfully for Netanyahu, they have opposed any hostage-for-prisoner deal that would be necessary for a long-term Israeli ceasefire in Gaza – such as the one now being negotiated.
If Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir were to leave the government, a strong possibility if Mr. Netanyahu were to agree to a ceasefire, another opposition party led by Yair Lapid could temporarily intervene to save the hostage deal, but not to prevent early elections.
Or Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir could decide to abandon Mr. Netanyahu to force elections, where they would run as leaders of the parties that would allow the Israeli settlement to continue and any attempt to create an independent Palestine. Their goal in this scenario is to win over many of the right-wing Likud voters who are disgusted with Mr. Netanyahu and his party for their failures on October 7.
Path 2: 'Constructive no trust'
A second and more complicated path is a vote of 'constructive distrust'. In principle, any MP who can gain the support of a majority of its members can become Prime Minister.
In the current Likud-led government, that challenge will most likely come from a party member. Amnon Abramovich, a political analyst at Channel 12, an Israeli news channel, and Haaretz's Mr. Pfeffer said at least five Likud lawmakers should break with the current government and decide on a replacement for Mr. Netanyahu from their party. then make sure that a majority of legislators agree with their choice. The aim of the mechanism is to take down one government while installing another, with minimal disruption.
This would have the advantage of keeping the Likud in power and preventing early elections.
The problem, Mr. Abramovich said, is that the Likud politicians most likely to lead such a maneuver, such as Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant; or a former mayor of Jerusalem, Nir Barkat; or Yuli Edelstein, a former speaker of the Knesset, “all want the others to go with them.” They are all happy to lead, he said, but not to follow.
Mr. Pfeffer agreed. “No one wants to hand the job to their rival on a silver platter,” he said.
And Mr. Netanyahu, he said, is extraordinarily skilled and experienced at playing rivals against each other and threatening them, sometimes on the basis of carefully kept records, with political death if they act against him.
The Likud leadership also knows that based on current polls, the party would be crushed in any new election. Mr. Abramovich said Mr. Netanyahu has lost “maybe 50 percent of his support” among Likud voters because of his security shortcomings, his refusal to take responsibility for the Oct. 7 debacle and for what they see as his “playing politics during the elections”. the war.”
There is another complication, known as the 'Norwegian law', which allows ministers to vacate their cabinet seats to focus on their ministerial jobs and have the seats temporarily filled by others from their party. Any new Likud leader should therefore ensure that ministers returning to their seats in Parliament will support him or her as prime minister.
Path 3: The opposition leaves the unity government
Mr. Gantz and Mr. Eisenkot, both respected former generals, could abandon the wartime unity government and try to lead a movement for early elections. But since neither has a majority, neither can topple Netanyahu's government on his own.
Considering that even new elections would require a three-month campaign, Mr. Netanyahu would remain Prime Minister without their positions and restrictions on his actions during the war. That and the principle of unity in wartime have kept Mr. Gantz and Mr. Eisenkot in government until now. But they may decide differently if there is a long-term ceasefire and the war comes to an end.
Mr. Gantz, who is currently the most popular politician in Israelis considered the most conflicted over whether and when to leave the government, while Mr. Eisenkot, a member of Mr. Gantz's party, has been more outspoken in his criticism of Mr. Netanyahu during the war.
Path 4: Civil protest
A fourth path, seen by some as most likely, would be a powerful renewal of the anti-Netanyahu demonstrations that divided Israel for nearly nine months before October 7. The war has created a form of unity, but issues are already being debated. such as the hostages, how to end the war and what to do with Gaza and the Palestinians when hostilities cease.
If Mr. Gantz and Mr. Eisenkot leave the government, the question will be to what extent Mr. Netanyahu's rivals and the families of the hostages and soldiers who were killed or injured can spark the widespread and ongoing protests “that would destroy this government.” can make you falter'. and force new elections,” Mr Abramovich said.
Demonstrations that go beyond the political left and merge concern over the hostages with anger over the Oct. 7 failures “could put real pressure on the coalition for elections sometime in 2024,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy . at the Brookings Institution.
That would pose a dilemma for President Biden, as his proposal to pursue a two-state solution after the war has been rejected by Mr Netanyahu and would also be dependent on a new Israeli government. But U.S. officials also note that a direct confrontation with Mr. Netanyahu will likely be counterproductive, as his campaign is supported within Likud and the country as a whole as the indispensable barrier to a Palestinian state.
Nahum Barnea, a columnist for Yedioth Ahronoth, a popular Israeli newspaper, said that up to 80 percent of Israelis want Netanyahu gone, “but we have no mechanism that can break the current government, and it is still very active. and does not believe he is guilty or responsible.”
“I don't rule out that he will win,” he added, “even against President Biden.”