McCarthy, bracing for apostasy, eyes a fraught path to a debt reduction deal

Speaker Kevin McCarthy tries to strike a difficult balancing act as he tries to force spending concessions from President Biden in exchange for raising the debt ceiling: cobble together a deal that can win the votes of a majority of Republicans without the critical alienate masses of Democrats he would like to push it through the House.

Far-right Republicans have fueled the deadlock over the debt limit by demanding hefty spending cuts as the price of averting bankruptcy, and they are almost certain to oppose any compromise. That means Mr. McCarthy, a Republican from California, would need the support of a solid bloc of Democrats in the closely divided chamber.

Political realities are weighing on both Republicans and Democrats in debt limit talks, which continued Tuesday on Capitol Hill with no sign of a speedy resolution. Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Biden are weighing compromises that would likely result in losing the votes of both the hardline left and right in Congress, meaning they would need to assemble a coalition of Republicans and center Democrats to create a to support final agreement to a standard.

The strategy carries great political risks for Mr McCarthy, who won his post earlier this year after fifteen rounds of landslide voting. time. He can afford to lose the Conservatives’ vote on the debt ceiling, but if he makes a deal that angers them too much, he could lose his job.

“My conservative colleagues for the most part support Limit, Save, Grow, and they don’t feel we should negotiate with our hostage,” said Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was one of Mr. McCarthy’s strongest opponents. during his fight for the speakership. Mr Gaetz referred to the bill passed by the House last month that would cut government programs by an average of 18 percent over a ten-year period in exchange for an increase in the debt limit.

The dynamic has made the task of finding an acceptable deal more difficult, placing negotiators on a precarious legislative teeter-totter. If they impose tougher job requirements on public benefit programs to win over Republicans, for example, they risk losing too many Democrats. If they tip the compromise toward the Democrats by rolling back the cuts, they risk alienating the Republicans.

Complicating the picture further is an unwritten but virtually inviolable rule that has long been adhered to by speakers of both sides, which is that any legislation they put forward must get at least a majority of their members.

“It’s a complicated piece of math,” said Rep. Patrick T. McHenry, a North Carolina Republican and one of the negotiators tapped by Mr. McCarthy to lead the talks.

White House and Republican negotiators are circling the same set of issues — chief among them the duration and magnitude of federal budget cuts — in an effort to stave off a potential economic catastrophe that could come as early as June 1.

The question is whether Mr. McCarthy can negotiate a deal that his most conservative legislators, many of whom had never before voted to raise the debt ceiling, might oppose but won’t attack.

“I don’t think exactness is the norm, but robustness is,” said Rep. Dan Bishop, a North Carolina Republican and member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. “Sometimes negotiators are so eager to close a deal that they are unprepared to exploit the leverage they have.”

The pressure from his right helps explain the outbursts of defiance the speaker has shown at times during the negotiations, and why Republicans have hinted that a deal is unlikely to materialize until bankruptcy is really imminent. When asked on Monday evening what it would take to break the deadlock, Mr McCarthy replied: “June 1st.”

Mr. McCarthy expressed confidence that whatever deal he negotiates will receive the support of a majority of his conference, even though he acknowledged that the deal ultimately “will not solve all the problems” Republicans want to address. And he has repeatedly noted that he held his conference together on the only debt ceiling bill passed by Congress this year.

“I firmly believe that whatever we’re negotiating now, a majority of Republicans will see that this is the right place to put us on the right track,” said Mr. McCarthy.

Some leading conservatives are already starting to openly worry that they are losing some of the political ground they believe they have gained in the debt limit bill passed by the House in April, which includes reversing key elements of the signature health , Mr Biden’s climate and tax law. . For many House Republicans, the bill was the bare minimum they would accept in exchange for raising the nation’s borrowing limit.

“There were a lot of people who put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into our legislation,” said Louisiana Rep. Garret Graves, another of Mr. McCarthy’s negotiators. “What we’re doing under the leadership of the speaker is trying to protect all of the stock in that. We try to keep as much as possible together there, realizing that there is another common denominator at the moment.”

Representative Bob Good, a Virginia Republican and a member of the Freedom Caucus, said the “House has no more work to do” and that the Democrat-led Senate had to pass the House GOP bill if senators wanted to avoid default.

“Most Republicans have never voted to raise the debt ceiling,” Good said. “Virtually all Republicans did not want to vote for raising the debt ceiling. But we came together and responsibly increased the debt limit. Everything that was on that bill was necessary.”

So far, right-wing lawmakers seem pleased with Mr McCarthy’s approach. Mr. Good said he “did a good job,” and Mr. Gaetz said the knowledge that he could lose office at any time pressured the California Republican to do the right thing.

“One person’s motion to leave has given us the best version of Speaker McCarthy,” said Mr. Gaetz.

There are also risks for the Democrats.

Liberals in both the House and Senate have objected to the White House’s willingness to negotiate with Republicans about imposing tougher job requirements on programs like Temporary Assistance to Needy Families and food stamps, as well as the idea of ​​cutting federal spending. to lower. Some progressives have urged Mr. Biden to stop negotiating with Republicans and avoid default by invoking the 14th Amendment.

New York Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader, complained Monday night after Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy met at the White House that House Republicans were trying to force “extreme proposals” on lawmakers and the public.

“They keep coming back to work requirements, which are extreme. They keep going back to 10-year or multi-year spending limits,” Mr Jeffries said. “These are all strange things going in the wrong direction.”

Washington Representative Pramila Jayapal, the chairwoman of the Progressive Caucus, urged Mr Biden to hold the line against Republican pressure or face significant backlash from both Democrats in Congress and millions of voters .

“The president has to stay strong or there will be a backlash from people who just lose confidence that the government cares about them,” she said.

Luke Broadwater And Stephanie Lay reporting contributed.