A quarter of smokers quit because of the menthol ban, research shows

Nearly a quarter of menthol cigarette smokers quit within a year or two after a menthol ban went into effect, according to a study published Wednesday.

Researchers found that about half of menthol smokers switched to other cigarettes and another quarter managed to continue smoking menthol. The percentage of menthol smokers who quit was higher in countries where bans were imposed, as opposed to cities or states, because it was harder for people to drive a few miles to continue buying menthol cigarettes, according to the study.

The Food and Drug Administration has urged the Biden administration to impose a ban on menthol cigarettes, a goal that has drawn fierce opposition from retailers and tobacco companies, in addition to concerns in a presidential election year that it could alienate Black voters.

Black smokers, who strongly prefer menthol cigarettes, would also benefit most from such a ban, public health researchers say, noting that premature deaths from cancer and heart and lung disease could be avoided after a sharp decline in smokers.

The study analyzed the effects of bans in other countries, including Canada and some in the European Union, as well as bans in effect in states including Massachusetts. The researchers reviewed studies, smoking rates and cigarette sales as part of their analysis.

“Our research found that a ban on menthol will have a positive impact on equality, meaning we expect smoking to decline most among black people who smoke compared to other racial or ethnic groups,” said Sarah Mills, lead author of the research. an assistant professor at the University of North Carolina School of Public Health.

What remains to be seen is whether the White House, perhaps haunted by the anti-regulatory response to public health measures taken during the coronavirus pandemic, will advance the ban this year. In December, the White House postponed a decision on the proposal until at least March, sparking speculation that it would languish as President Biden seeks a second term.

Menthol cigarettes generate billions of dollars in sales annually for ban opponents, including Reynolds American, maker of Newport Cigarettes; Altria, maker of menthol Marlboros; and gas stations and convenience stores.

Opponents have launched a campaign about the potential consequences of a ban, sponsoring commercials that threaten a surge in illegal cigarette trafficking at the U.S.-Mexico border. They have also raised the profile of those predicting a possible increase in police violence against black menthol smokers. But the proposed US ban does not target individuals; enforcement is proposed at the manufacturer level.

Public health experts have increased their pressure in recent weeks, staging a “menthol funeral” outside the White House to draw attention to the country's 480,000 annual smoking-related deaths. Former Surgeons General called up the White House earlier this month to “save lives” by ending the ban immediately and “not be distracted by the tobacco industry and its defenders.”

And the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids released its own poll Thursday showing that a ban would not reduce black voters' support for the president. The survey, conducted for the advocacy group, found that 62 percent of respondents supported a menthol ban, compared to 25 percent who disapproved.

“This new data proves what we already know to be true: Black voters want to see a menthol ban,” Derrick Johnson, president of the NAACP, said in a statement.

In the new study, researchers noted that cigarette companies had raised concerns about the illegal trade in menthol as an argument against the ban. But the study found that Canada did not experience an increase in seizures of illegal cigarettes following the nationwide ban. It remains unclear whether a US ban would have a similar effect.

In a study In 2021, using a model to assess the effects of a menthol ban, David Levy, professor of oncology at Georgetown University, found that it could lead to an overall reduction in smoking by about 15 percent. According to the study, as many as 11 million years of life could be gained instead of lost through smoking-related deaths by 2060.

“These effects are delayed,” said Dr. Levy, “but are important nonetheless.”

Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.