Meek: With Juwan Howard, Michigan and Warde Manuel may have to face facts soon

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Warde Manuel is a patient man. Patient to the bone, some would say.

The job of an athletic director, as Manuel sees it, is to avoid knee-jerk reactions. Sports fans are fickle. They want what they want, and they want it now. When public pressure is at its greatest, Manuel believes he must take a step back, collect his thoughts and make a clear decision.

“You have to go for the facts,” Manuel said recently. “You can't overreact to emotions.”

Soon Manuel will have to do that with Juwan Howard. Because the facts are the facts, and emotion goes both ways.

Everyone in Michigan wants Howard to succeed. He is one of Michigan's best players of all time. He's had a rough year, recovering from heart surgery while trying to coach a team in the midst of a major transition. On a human level, it is normal and admirable that Manuel empathizes with the coach he has hired.

“I'd be incredibly numb if I didn't worry about him,” Manuel said.

If Manuel is to make good on his word, he will have to put those emotions aside and look at the entirety of Michigan's men's basketball program. What he'll see is a team going nowhere, sitting at 8-18 and 3-12 in the Big Ten after Saturday's 73-63 loss to Michigan State.

A few facts to consider:

Saturday's loss dropped Michigan to 5-8 at home. In a league where teams win 81 percent of their home games, Michigan is the only team with a losing record. Michigan has blown halftime leads in eight of its losses and is 9-20 in games decided by single digits over the past two seasons. And then there's the off-court stuff: the Wisconsin fight two years ago, the incident with strength coach Jon Sanderson this year, the academic suspension that sidelined point guard Dug McDaniel for road games.

Michigan seems to alternate between lifeless performances and games like Saturday's, hard-fought losses that are close at halftime but then slip away. The Wolverines scored 22 goals and went scoreless over the final seven minutes, an all-too-familiar ending for a team with a long history of late-game collapses.

Afterwards, Howard responded defiantly when asked if he could imagine taking a step back after the season in light of his heart surgery in September and ongoing rehabilitation.

“That lets me know you really don't know me,” said Howard, now in his fifth season. “If you get to know me a little better and know my story, everywhere I've been, I've always had to deal with the noise and roll up my sleeves to find solutions. We will take a solution-oriented approach when we close this season. There won't be next season. We are going to finish this season strong.”

Michigan would owe Howard a $3 million buyout if he is fired after this season. Just a few days ago, Manuel voiced his support for Howard and said he isn't considering making any changes to the program.

Manuel made the comments on the same day Ohio State fired coach Chris Holtmann in the middle of his seventh season. By comparison, Holtmann was 30-30 and 9-25 in Big Ten play over the past two seasons. Howard is 26-34 and 14-21 in the same span.

Howard has two Sweet 16s, an Elite Eight and a Big Ten championship on his resume, which Holtmann did not have. Those achievements seem to be getting further away by the day. While it's unfair to attribute Howard's early success solely to the program John Beilein built, the trend lines don't do him any favors.

Fans will protest, but there is reason to wipe the slate clean and give Howard another chance to make things right. Howard's teams were competitive in the Big Ten when they had the right pieces. Michigan has had some bad luck in the transfer portal, losing Terrence Shannon and Caleb Love to eligibility issues. Howard bears some responsibility for that, but it would have been nice to see the team he recruited actually take the floor.

That, plus a serious health issue that sidelined Howard for the first part of the season, could give Manuel a reason to stick with Howard for another year. Manuel gave a glimpse into his thoughts when he compared this basketball season to Michigan's 2020 football season, a 2-4 campaign that saw many fans calling for Jim Harbaugh's firing.

Manuel stayed with Harbaugh and gave him a chance to restart the program. Three years later, Harbaugh held a national championship trophy in Houston. That situation strengthened Manuel's belief in second chances.

“(Harbaugh) may have some things he needs to change and adjust, but he's a great coach,” Manuel said, recalling his thought process at the time. 'That's what I told people when everyone at the time said I should be fired because I didn't fire him. It is ridiculous.”

There's no denying that Manuel's patience has paid off, but there's also a risk in overgeneralization. As any Michigan fan can attest, Harbaugh is one of a kind. He also had a track record of winning matches at every stop of his career. Howard is a first-time head coach and this miserable season isn't happening in the middle of a pandemic.

If Michigan keeps Howard, it should be for one reason: because he is the coach who gives Michigan the best chance at success. It must be a decision based on the facts and the future, and not rooted in history or sentimentality.

In essence, Manuel's comments last week were not much different from those he made in January about Howard's future. But they also came with the recognition that the current state of Michigan is not acceptable.

“We have to be better,” Manuel said. 'He knows that. They know that. Expectations are high.”

At Michigan, Howard has a boss who is willing to be patient. Patience, like time, eventually runs out.

(Top photo: Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)