The number of migrants crossing the southern US border has fallen. But for how long?
Almost two months since the lifting of a public health order that allowed the United States to quickly expel migrants at its southern border, the number of migrants entering the country has not only fallen sharply, but has also remained relatively low.
According to data from the Department of Homeland Security, the average number of daily illegal crossings since May 12 is around 3,360. In March 2022, that average was about 7,100.
The drop in border crossings has been a welcome development for the Biden administration, which has seen record levels of illegal migration for most of the president’s tenure.
Officials expected the expiration of the public health rule, known as Title 42, to bring an even higher number of illegal crossings, believing the policy change could cause chaos if migrants who had been unable to apply for asylum suddenly could. However, those predictions were made before the Biden administration introduced policies to avert a potential spike. The increase in illegal crossings came in the days before the rule expired.
But officials say this lull, after nearly two years of higher-than-usual crossings, will not last. Determining the factors for the increase and decrease in migration is not an exact science. Global migration trends, legal challenges and political changes in the United States and in countries where most migrants come from can all affect the direction of the numbers. But here are some well-informed theories from government officials and outside experts based on current conditions.
Why border crossings fail
Changes in border policies led to temporary changes in migration patterns.
Officials believe migrants have been in a wait-and-see attitude since May 12, after the public health rule — which had been in place for three years — was lifted and policies were rolled out that restrict access to asylum and create new legal avenues. .
The new policy already faces legal challenges, raising the possibility that a judge’s ruling could alter, temporarily suspend or completely terminate one of the policies. So many migrants are waiting to see if the policy will last.
They are also looking at how others are faring at the US border and whether they encounter any new obstacles in their search for the United States, said Falko Ernst, a senior Mexico analyst for the International Crisis Group.
“Perhaps people are ready because they hear stories and are afraid” of the new policy making it more difficult to cross the border, Mr Ernst said.
New options for getting to the United States mean fewer illegal crossings.
Officials believe fewer migrants are crossing the border illegally as they benefit from a more structured and safer option to seek asylum, as well as new legal avenues the Biden administration has created for certain nationalities to enter the country.
In central and northern Mexico, migrants can access a government app on smartphones where they can request an appointment at an official port of entry at the US border. Although there were technical issues with the app, nearly 30,000 people used it to book appointments in May alone, according to recent government data.
In addition, migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela can live and work in the United States for two years under a special humanitarian parole. In April, the Biden administration announced that migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras would be eligible for a family reunification program. These programs, which are expected to begin this month, will allow certain immigrants seeking to reunite with close relatives to enter the United States and later apply for a green card.
Enforcement efforts on the borders of Mexico and Guatemala have made it more difficult for migrants to cross onto US soil.
The measures taken by Mexico include restricting migrants’ ability to travel through the country, making it more difficult for them to reach the US border. Mexico is also flying migrants that the United States recently deported to the southern parts of the country. This creates more distance between them and the US border, making it more difficult for the migrants to try again to cross the border illegally.
Why border crossings are expected to increase
The drivers of migration have not changed.
There is still extreme poverty, violence and political instability in the countries people are fleeing, including Haiti, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua and other Central American countries.
Migrants are still moving north, albeit at a slower pace.
“I am convinced that there are a lot of people moving to the hemisphere, most of them this way,” Benjamine Huffman, a senior Customs and Border Protection official, said at a congressional hearing on June 6. “We see the news reports. We look at shelters that people have.
As of June 14, there were about 104,000 migrants in northern Mexico, about eight hours from the US border, according to an intelligence estimate provided by the Biden administration in a recent court case. And there are more along the route from Colombia, where journeys typically begin in the Western Hemisphere.
If the Biden administration’s policies remain in place and no changes occur as part of the legal challenges, crossings may eventually start to increase again as well.
The risk of violence or death outweighs the risk of not entering the United States.
Migrants waiting somewhere on their way to the United States may find the danger they face by staying put, particularly in Mexico, so great that they would rather risk crossing the southern border illegally, Mr. Ernst, the International Crisis Group analyst.
Criminals and cartels prey on vulnerable populations such as migrants. Staying in one place makes them targets of forced labor and sex trafficking, Mr. Ernst said.