McConnell’s early decision to step aside is fueling the GOP’s fight to succeed him

Senator Mitch McConnell’s decision to relinquish leadership at the end of the year has thrown Senate Republicans into a drawn-out, potentially disruptive nine-month battle to succeed him in the midst of a presidential race and campaign for control over the House.

A battle that had been simmering in the background was suddenly brought to the fore this week by Mr. McConnell’s earlier-than-expected announcement that he would not seek to remain his party’s leader. The contenders immediately began courting their colleagues for the chance to become their party’s first new face in the Senate in nearly two decades.

“It’s a tall order,” said Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican, of the months remaining until the party’s first seriously contested leadership race since Mr. McConnell took power in 2007. “But it is what it is. is. So you just have to adapt.”

Congressional leadership contests are the most inside games on Capitol Hill, with secret ballot outcomes determined by personal relationships, grudges and who lawmakers see as the best option for their own ambitions, as well as serious policy positions or the state of the institution. The true electorate is not even known yet, as those voting for next year’s leader will include anyone who wins a seat in November – and exclude anyone who loses.

That reality was underscored Friday morning when Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the former No. 2 Republican, enthusiastically endorsed Kari Lake, the Republican front-runner in Arizona’s Senate race. Mr. Cornyn, the only one so far to officially announce his candidacy, has tried to get off to a fast start in his bid to replace Mr. McConnell, with an all-out push on his 48 colleagues in the Senate and beyond.

“I called them all,” Mr. Cornyn said in an interview. “I called them all and spoke to some of them personally. Most of them say, ‘You know, we’d like to have a more detailed conversation.’”

While Mr. Cornyn hinted that he had already made commitments, most Senate Republicans will forego any commitments, hoping to make the most of their leadership vote and pressure the contenders by pitting them against each other. There is still a long way to go.

And the shadow of former President Donald J. Trump looms over the race. The decision by Mr. McConnell, who does not speak to Mr. Trump, to step aside was a tacit admission that he had fallen too far out of step with the party’s MAGA base that reveres the former president to remain as leader . Mr Thune has also sharply criticized Mr Trump, as has Mr Cornyn – although both have supported him in recent weeks.

It is entirely possible that the two Johns — Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn — will be joined by a third, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate, who has indicated a strong interest in increasing the leadership and has recently taken a stand. himself to the right of his two most likely opponents. Although he has not made his intentions known, he has given his approval and appeared in Arizona with Ms. Lake this week. He has maintained strong ties with Mr. Trump.

Another name in circulation is that of Senator Steve Daines of Montana, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, making him responsible for the party’s efforts to capture the Senate. A strong performance in November could make him a viable candidate, with a built-in base of support from those he helped secure seats and from other grateful colleagues. He is also close to Mr Trump.

The far-right Republicans in the Senate can also put forward a candidate — or at least try to use their voting bloc to win concessions from the others, as archconservatives in the House of Representatives did in the Rotunda leadership battle. Some want to see another effort from Senator Rick Scott of Florida, who easily dismissed Mr. McConnell in a 2022 leadership election.

“I ran 14 months ago because I think we need change,” Mr Scott said, although he did not run for office himself. “I think there will be a lot of people there.”

The leadership battle promises to be at least a distraction as contenders jockey for position, and could be even more so if things get tricky — though the candidates say they expect to remain civil, at least publicly.

“I don’t expect any animosity between members,” Mr. Cornyn said. “I respect my colleagues. I think John Thune will be in the running, and John is a good senator and a friend of mine.

Given the time remaining until the election, some senators have suggested it would be better if Mr. McConnell relinquished leadership more quickly and forced internal fighting sooner. But so far that seems unlikely, as he seems determined to wait until after the election.

The traditionally conservative Mr. Thune is considered a straight shooter and was seen as doing a capable job when Mr. McConnell was ousted last year after a fall. Mr. Cornyn, the former head of the Senate campaign organization, is known for his fundraising prowess. Allies say he has already raised $13 million for Republican candidates this election cycle.

All the contenders and their colleagues say they are interested in finding ways to respond to widespread disquiet about the way the Senate works — or doesn’t work — and to better empower individual senators, after years of much of the decision-making being concentrated in the Senate leadership suite. Mr. McConnell, where he reigned supreme.

“It’s a lot of listening,” Mr. Thune said of his meetings with colleagues. “It’s clearly a new era and a reset. People have a lot of ideas about how we can make the workplace better and how we can improve the work we do here.”

“A lot of the anger and frustration you hear from senators is because they are essentially being treated like potted plants,” Mr. Cornyn said. “They are not allowed to participate in committee increases or in an open amendment process on the floor. And I would like to change that.”

Whoever emerges from the leadership battle faces an uphill task in what will almost certainly remain a Senate closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, with a widening divide between those on the far right of the Republican party and those that remain to the right of center.

“I admire people who want to do it because it takes time away from your family and it’s hard,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who said he had no interest in leadership. “I’d rather fight a polar bear with a knife.”