MLB Draft trades magic for efficiency

On Sunday in Seattle for the fourth year in a row – enough for a full class of students – Major League Baseball is holding a streamlined version of its amateur version. From an unlimited-round event to a 50-round event, then 40, and now just 20, the setup is exclusive and efficient, in keeping with baseball’s restructured minor league system.

But efficiency comes at a price: the countless long-running careers that may never materialize. Dozens of current Major Leaguers have turned pro after being drafted in rounds that no longer exist. They are thankful for their timing.

“Twenty rounds doesn’t seem like enough,” said Kevin Kiermaier, the Toronto Blue Jays center fielder who was picked in the 31st round by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010. “I mean, if it was now, I never would have had the chance.”

Kiermaier, 33, is perhaps the best modern example of the talent that once bubbled far below the draft’s surface. Voted 941st overall by an Illinois community college, he has won three Gold Gloves, played in the World Series and earned more than $60 million in an 11-year career.

Four players who made the All-Star team last summer – David Bednar, Nestor Cortes, Ty France and Joe Mantiply – were also chosen after the 20th round. So did two members of the Houston Astros’ World Series finals lineup last fall (Chas McCormick and Martín Maldonado) and several other longtime big leaguers, such as Jesse Chavez, Seth Lugo, Kevin Pillar and Rowdy Tellez.

Two Hall of Famers (Mike Piazza and John Smoltz) were drafted in extinction rounds, as were several others with a Cooperstown plea, such as Mark Buehrle, Keith Hernandez, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada. Many low-drafted players could have remained amateurs and tried to improve their draft positions the following year, but their careers would have turned out differently.

“If you cut back on the number of players, you’re going to have to create other opportunities for those kinds of players who would have been drafted into the game,” said Omar Minaya, a former general manager and longtime scout who now advises the Yankees. “Players sometimes develop late, so it’s good that MLB is doing things to put that infrastructure in place.”

As of the 2021 season, teams are limited to 180 players under the control of the club – previously there was no limit – and four domestic farm teams, plus one or two “complex teams” operating out of the spring training base. Short-season Class A teams were eliminated, in part due to the calendar; in 2021, the league moved its draft date from June to July, to coincide with the All-Star Game and increase its exposure.

Some of the teams that were delisted are now part of the MLB’s predraft league, created for scouts to get one last look at the prospects before making their pick. Other teams have joined so-called affiliate leagues—the American Association, the Atlantic League, the Frontier League, and the Pioneer League—funded in part by MLB but independent of any specific franchise.

Undrafted players could theoretically join one of those teams in hopes of sparking interest from MLB. But by removing them from the draft, they recognize the dizzying odds against them.

“When a player signs a pro contract, you want that player to have the opportunity to become a major league player one day,” said Morgan Sword, MLB’s executive vice president of baseball operations. “That’s why players become minor league players because they want to be major league players one day. And we had a lot of players in the system who — what’s the right way to put it? – almost no chance of ever reaching the big leagues.

On the other hand, to paraphrase Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber,” there’s a huge difference between almost no chance and no chance. A draft selection – no matter the round – confirms that a major league franchise sees something in a player, and often that’s all the player wants.

“It was definitely nice to know that they picked me for a reason, and I could go show it off and play my game,” said Zach McKinstry, the Detroit Tigers’ regular lead-off hitter, who was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers. in the 33rd round in 2016. “I was given an opportunity right away when I signed. I spent three days in Arizona and then they sent me to low A and I played on a championship team that year.

McKinstry, who played at Central Michigan University, was a backup before a teammate’s injury allowed him to fight his way to the Dodgers. He was well aware that most minor leaguers – especially when the draft lasted 40 rounds or more – were only needed so the better prospects could play somewhere.

“There’s a lot of injustice in the game, real or imagined, so there would be a lot of negative thoughts in those outfield scrums during batting practice,” said Bob Scanlan, a San Diego Padres announcer who pitched in the majors for nine seasons. after signing in 1984 as a 25th round pick. “There was a lot of talk like, ‘You know you mean nothing to this organization. You’re only here as a filler. Why are you even working your tail off?’”

Scanlan was 17 when he signed with Philadelphia and turned down UCLA for the allure of the quality coaching he would receive in professional football. In recent decades, however, university programs have become more sophisticated, with cutting-edge facilities and instruction providing an attractive alternative to the dusty outposts that once made up the lowly minors.

“Development time is getting shorter and shorter with the limits on the total number of players, so the guys you would pick late are probably going to college,” said Matt Arnold, general manager of Milwaukee Brewers. “Drawing and then going to Helena, or wherever, is going to be less attractive than a really nice ACC or SEC school — and even those second-tier programs have a lot of stuff to sell.”

Sword said the cost of minor league improvements — in ballparks, travel, nutrition and salaries — far outweighs the savings from eliminating so many draft picks; “It’s probably nine figures a year across the league,” he said. Sword added that more than 200 players have jumped from partner leagues to affiliate minors by 2021.

“The roads for those kinds of guys to the big leagues exist as always,” he said. “It’s just that the path is different than it once was.”

Still, it stands to reason that with half the number of draft picks as four years ago, hundreds of players from every league are now giving up their baseball dreams for more realistic careers. Arnold, who grew up in Bakersfield, California looking for a since-departed Class A team, wonders about the impact of losing so many acolytes to the sport.

“A lot of those guys, even if you were a 35th rounder from the middle of nowhere, go home and start an academy, and now you’re a hero,” said Arnold. “You’re a man who played pro ball, and you bring it back home. And maybe he wasn’t great, but he carries the game with him as a steward in a way that I think we’ll miss.”

The guys who make it may have to preach a little harder. Kiermaier, for example, embraces the role.

“I look back at how everything has evolved for me, and I’m so grateful for my journey,” he said. “I will never forget being a 31st rounder. I’m proud of that. That number means a lot to me.”