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Projecting each NFL playoff team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, with divisional matchup analysis

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Thirty-two teams have embarked on a mission to win Super Bowl LVIII this season. Eight teams remain.

Jeff Howe analyzes each of the four divisional round matches this weekend before The Athletic's projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:30 PM ET, Saturday

Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud dazzled in his playoff debut by completing 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Stroud's poise was remarkable at this early stage of his career. He has completed at least 75 percent of his passes in three straight games and hasn't thrown an interception in six straight games.

Perhaps no one strengthened his head coaching candidacy more during wild-card weekend than Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and teams with vacancies will be keeping an eye on his chess match against Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The Ravens have averaged 15.5 points over their last four games against quality competition (the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers).

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Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a long shot to claim his second MVP Award next month, but the pressure is on him to perform in the playoffs, where he has lost three of his four career starts and shot less than 60 percent in each loss of his passes completed. .

The Ravens won these franchises' only playoff meeting 12 years ago.

No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 PM ET, Sunday

This weekend's big game marks the postseason road debut of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have been spottier than usual this season, but their defense isn't collapsing; it has not allowed more than 20 points in six consecutive games.

The Bills' six-game winning streak started in Week 14 in Kansas City, and they've knocked off quality opponents along the way. Four of those six wins came against playoff teams, including Monday's victory against the Steelers.

The biggest story here, of course, is the rematch between two of the AFC's most prominent powers in recent years. Mahomes has knocked off quarterback Josh Allen's Bills in the playoffs twice since the 2020 season, and both games were entertaining offensive affairs.

The Chiefs are trying to reach their sixth straight championship game, and the Bills are hoping to avoid their third straight loss in the divisional round.

NFC

No. No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday

The Packers, who now have as many playoff victories at AT&T Stadium as the Dallas Cowboys (three), pulled off the biggest upset of the wild-card round after big performances from quarterback Jordan Love and running back Aaron Jones. They had an incredibly disciplined game plan of controlling the ground play, taking their shots when necessary and preventing big defensive plays, and they executed it to perfection. The combination of great coaching and high-level production should make the 49ers nervous, as these traits could carry over into the playoffs.

The 49ers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the regular season, but that was because their opponents had to play from behind so often that the Niners faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league. They allowed 4.1 yards per carry, which ranked 14th and was just slightly better than Dallas (4.2).

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The Niners are the well-deserved No. 1 seed and have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, but there is reason for concern as they prepare to face a powerful and confident Green Bay team that has won four straight and seven of nine. The Niners were down several of their starters in the regular season finale, so they're about to find out if they're rested or rusty after many of their stars haven't played since New Year's Eve.

The 49ers have won four consecutive playoff meetings against the Packers.

No. No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday

No one threw a bigger celebration this weekend than the Lions, who won their first playoff game in 32 years and earned just their second postseason victory since 1957. For the first time in the franchise's 94-year history, they will host multiple games in one postseason. history.

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This will be a rematch between two strong teams, as the Lions won in Tampa 20-6 in Week 6. The Buccaneers just defeated the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night and will not back down against the favored Lions in a hostile environment. It's also a matchup between quarterbacks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, each of whom was selected No. 1 overall but has since found success with new organizations.

These teams have met once before in the playoffs, with the Buccaneers winning 20-10 in 1997.

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NFL Playoffs: Key matchups to watch in every AFC divisional round

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: David Eulitt/Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL's 100 Greatest Players of All Time, is now available for purchase. Order it here.

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