Why are so many NFL safeties being cut? Will their market disappear like it did for RBs?

The Denver Broncos’ decision to release star safety Justin Simmons can easily be written off as collateral damage and an unfortunate but necessary step toward recalibrating their salary cap.

But digging deeper, there seems to be a trend forming in Simmons’ position as a group of safeties have flooded the free agent market with teams seemingly prioritizing other parts of the roster. Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, Quandre Diggs, Rayshawn Jenkins and Marcus Maye were all suspended (or designated as a post-June 1 reduction in Maye’s case), while Antoine Winfield Jr. was tagged into the franchise by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kyle Dugger was tagged in transition by the New England Patriots and Xavier McKinney was not tagged in any capacity by the New York Giants.

There was a brief moment on Tuesday when McKinney appeared to be in prime position to monopolize the top end of the safety market in free agency. But within 48 hours, he was standing shoulder to shoulder with more peers than he probably expected.

Supply is about to exceed demand, which could reduce the value of the position. It’s unlikely to be as dramatic as the declining market for running backs, but seven NFL personnel managers and coaches said The Athletics something has developed, even if it only becomes a short-term trend.

“(It’s part of a) larger financial trend,” one executive said. “The market got too high for the overall impact of the position.”

To be fair, it’s impossible to separate Simmons’ release from quarterback Russell Wilson, whose release will result in $85 million in dead cap space against the Broncos. Simmons, 30, may not be at the top of his game anymore, but rival teams still consider him one of the game’s best safeties, and his leadership is impeccable. But the $14.5 million in savings is significant for a team in serious financial disarray following Wilson’s release. The Broncos will have to make a series of tough contractual decisions until Wilson’s money comes off the cap.

“(Simmons) is too expensive considering everything else they have to do,” one coach said. “Russell Wilson is an expensive divorce.”

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In that respect, Simmons’ release is unique.

But that’s not the whole story. Despite all of Simmons’ positive attributes, a few executives realized why he wasn’t necessarily worth the cap, and the argument focused more on the position as a whole.

As the league has become more pass-happy, teams are much more likely to overspend on quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and defensive tackle.

As a result, they have had to make cuts at other positions, whether it be running back, inside linebacker or safety. Of course there are always exceptions, but that has become the general model. More than $100 million in cash salary was lost on the safety position by 2024, according to Thursday morning. Nick Korte from Over The Cap. At almost $40 million, that was the most of any position.

This is crazy! No loyalty for anything or anyone in this league!
Dude has been a consistent All Pro and Pro Bowler and a staple for Denver!! What’s really going on with this exodus in protections?

— Nino (@qdiggs6) March 7, 2024

As one executive noted, there was a small group of safeties in free agency in 2023, and Jessie Bates (four years, $64 million with Atlanta) was the only player to earn a huge contract. Carolina’s Vonn Bell, Cleveland’s Juan Thornhill and Dallas’ Donovan Wilson were the only others to sign deals worth at least $20 million total. These four were among nine security guards signed for at least $6 million annually.

“Although the market wasn’t nearly as strong (in 2023), you saw teams unwilling to pay,” one executive said. “I think we’re going to see a trend where teams aren’t willing to pay too much for this feature.”

Philosophically, what’s happening may be more similar to what happened to linebackers than to running backs. To some extent, smart defensive coordinators have figured out ways to make safeties and linebackers in specific packages interchangeable commodities. And some of the better slot cornerbacks have taken on safety responsibilities, either in a game plan role or on a full-time basis.

Meanwhile, running backs are easier to find in the draft, and younger players with less mileage are becoming valuable commodities at a position where injuries take their toll, especially when only one is typically on the field at a time.

This actually provided a counterpoint. It’s relatively rare for a newcomer to make an impact, so the veteran market should be more attractive in that sense. It may not feel tangible, but it’s usually not difficult to figure out which cornerbacks are being affected by the safety play around them, for better or worse.

“You’re often looking for defensive coordinators who can get (players) to safety because there aren’t enough of them,” one executive said. “You would think the NFL (veteran) would have more value, but that’s not what happens.”

Some of what happened this week may be largely a coincidence – or at least not indicative of a larger trend about the position. Of the above eight safeties recently released, seven are on the wrong side of thirty. Adams, the exception, has an extensive injury history, playing just 10 games over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, of 10 sureties on multi-year deals worth at least $10 million per year, Minnesota’s Harrison Smith is the only player older than 30. Like any other position, teams are more willing to hand out market-defining contracts to their younger ones players. Winfield and Dugger are almost certain to skew these numbers further in favor of youth if they turn their tags into extensions. McKinney is also a candidate to join the $10 million club.

So while there certainly appears to be a developing trend, there are several reasons that may explain why so many safety products have flooded the market lately. Teams prioritize positions with more impact, but age and casualties don’t differentiate anywhere on the depth chart.

“With so many (safeties) being released, teams don’t feel the need to overpay,” one coach said. “But I don’t see a long-term safety trend toward paying less like what happened to the running back market.”

(Photo by Justin Simmons: Grant Halverson/Getty Images)