Haley gets a Trump Matchup, but now faces the Trump Machine
With only about 48 hours to go before the New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley finally got the two-way race she wanted.
It may not meet her expectations.
For months, it was an article of faith among Ms. Haley's supporters and a coalition of anti-Trump Republicans that the only way to beat Donald J. Trump was to sift the field for a one-on-one match and support consolidate among Republicans. his opponents.
That wish came true Sunday afternoon, when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ended his bid for the White House.
And yet, as the race reached its final day, there was little sign that Mr. DeSantis' departure would change Ms. Haley's chances of winning.
Ms. Haley quickly learned that the role of the last woman to oppose Mr. Trump meant she had to be the last target for a party rushing to rally behind the former president.
Two former rivals in the race — Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Mr. DeSantis — both endorsed the former president. The head of the Senate campaign division declared Mr. Trump the “presumptive nominee.” And Mr Trump's campaign strategists promised she would be “absolutely embarrassed and demolished” in her home state of South Carolina, the next big prize on the calendar.
While campaigning in New Hampshire, Ms. Haley and her supporters celebrated the demise of the DeSantis campaign on Sunday.
“Do you hear that sound?” she asked more than 1,000 people gathered in a high school gym in Exeter, N.H., her most attended event in the state. “That's the sound of a two-person race.”
Thirty-five miles north, in Rochester, NH, Trump told his audience to expect a victory so decisive that it would effectively end the primaries. “That should wrap it up,” he said.
Ms. Haley's supporters in the state said they felt that pressure. Some worried out loud that she had been feuding with Trump for so long that her aggressiveness in the final weekend of the primaries would not be enough to convince hardline New Hampshire voters that she had enough fight in her to win against the fighting former president.
A Republican activist who supported Ms. Haley said he kept his sign on the lawn in his garage because Trump's victory felt inevitable. Another Haley backer, Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the Republican Party of New Hampshire, described his support for the former governor as unenthusiastic. He said he couldn't bring himself to defend Ms. Haley on social media or rely on friends and family to vote for her.
“Too little, too late,” Mr. Cullen said of Ms. Haley's prospects. “She needed to inspire and engage unaffiliated voters, and I just haven't seen her do what she needs to do to reach that audience and get them in the numbers she needs.”
Most polls over the past week showed Trump leading by a dozen points or more. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC10 Boston daily poll of New Hampshire voters showed Trump steadily expanding his lead over Ms. Haley, by a margin of 53 percent to 36 percent on Saturday.
Ms. Haley's appearance on Tuesday will likely determine the future of her campaign — and possibly her political career. Anything short of a victory or a narrow defeat would put pressure on her to resign rather than face three weeks of punishing Trump campaign ads in her home state, where she is already behind.
Her best chance for survival is the high turnout of New Hampshire's independent voters, who make up 40 percent of the state's electorate, while Republicans account for about 30 percent.
New Hampshire's secretary of state is predicting record-high turnout on Tuesday, a scenario that both campaigns said would boost their chances of success.
Ms. Haley's team believes an increase in turnout would lead to greater participation from independent and moderate voters who are more likely to support her. They looked to Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign as a model. According to exit polls, McCain won the state's primary by dominating independent voters and fighting for a tie among Republicans.
However, Ms. Haley appears to be trailing among Republicans by a large margin, according to public polls. When following pollMs. Haley led independents, 49 percent to 41, but was nearly 20 points behind Mr. Trump overall, thanks in large part to his wide margin over Republicans, 65 percent to 25 percent.
Ms. Haley's donors and allies argued that Mr. DeSantis' departure could bring more donations and help her sharpen the contrast between herself and the former president. Both Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis struggled to find ways to criticize Mr. Trump without turning off Republicans who, while open to alternatives, still love him.
But some longtime political operatives in the state suggested there might not be enough anti-Trump Republicans and moderate independents to make the numbers work.
“Haley has consolidated the non-Trump vote, but overtaking him is the Rubik's Cube that no one has been able to figure out yet,” said Matt Mowers, a former Republican candidate for the House of Representatives from New Hampshire who was endorsed by both Mr. Trump as Mrs. Trump. Haley.
As she delivered her speech with new urgency on Saturday, Ms. Haley's attacks on Mr. Trump were at times softened by drawing Mr. Biden into the criticism.
“What are Joe Biden and Donald Trump both talking about?” Ms Haley asked at her meeting in Exeter. “The investigations they're in, the distractions they have, the people they're mad at, their hurt feelings, and they haven't shown us an ounce of vision for the future – not one.”
Jane Freeman, 55, a retired flight attendant and unreported voter in Exeter, frowned and sighed when asked about Mr. DeSantis's support for Mr. Trump.
“Trump is a tough issue,” said Ms. Freeman, who voted for the former president in 2016 and 2020 but now supports Ms. Haley. “I really wish he would have waited,” she said of Mr. DeSantis. Still, she said Ms. Haley had the right momentum and continued to win over voters. “I'm nervous, but really hopeful,” she said.
Anjali Huynh And Michael Gold reporting contributed.