Nikki Haley is chasing independents. They have their own opinion.

Nikki Haley's presidential aspirations could hinge on a victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, driven by her influence with people who don't belong to a political party. That's not a bad bet in a state where about 40 percent of voters call themselves independent.

The problem with her plan: Those voters come in all shapes and sizes, and many of them aren't open to her.

Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, has won over many voters in central New Hampshire. They include moderate, conservative-leaning independents driven from the Republican Party by former President Donald J. Trump. And about 4,000 Democrats have re-registered as Republicans or independents to vote in Republican Party primaries, in some cases to thwart Trump's steady march to the nomination.

But New Hampshire's potentially crucial primary will also include many other types of voters who have chosen to distance themselves from both parties:

• Independents on the left who are loyal to their neighbor Senator, Bernie Sanders.

• Independents on the right who plan to vote against President Biden in the Democratic primaries.

• Real swing voters who are up for grabs in every election.

• And working-class Trump supporters who don't want to belong to a Republican Party long associated with the wealthy — but who are in the former president's camp.

“Our country prospered the last time he was there, so I'm going with what I know,” said Stacy Kolofoles of Laconia, a longtime independent who nevertheless “can't imagine ever running for a Democrat.” to vote. ”

Twenty interviews with New Hampshire independents revealed significant challenges, as well as ample opportunities, for Ms. Haley as she woos the state. largest political constituency. a new poll from Saint Anselm College to put it this way, Mr. Trump led Ms. Haley by 65 percent to 25 percent among likely Republican voters in the state, while she defeated him among unaffiliated voters by a significantly smaller margin, 52 percent to 37 percent.

However, that 37 percent of independents for Trump could be decisive. Among all voters, he had a significant advantage, 52 percent to 38 percent, with Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida trailing far behind with 6 percent.

But the political mavericks of the state's independent voters mean it remains unpredictable how they will influence Tuesday's results — and ultimately whether New Hampshire will slow or accelerate Trump in the sprint to the nomination.

Reluctant Haley financiers

New Hampshire has one of the highest rates of independent voter registration in the country, along with Washington, Iowa and Colorado, according to an analysis of polling data by The New York Times. From late December343,192 New Hampshire voters registered as black, while 262,262 were Democrats and 267,905 were Republicans.

And a large number of those independents are college-educated moderate voters, the kind who have been drawn to Ms. Haley, especially since former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race.

Colin Carberry, 52, from Dover, is one of them. Mr. Carberry, who works in the financial industry and in what he describes as an affluent suburb, voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, “and I am not ashamed to admit my mistake.”

He won't do that again.

“He only cares about his own ego, empowering himself and his family at the expense of the country,” Mr Carberry said.

He expects to vote for Mrs. Haley, but is not happy about it. He recalled being “stunned” when she stumbled upon an answer about the cause of the Civil War, neglecting to mention slavery, and would have preferred if she had put to rest speculation that she could serve as the running mate from Trump.

His Dover neighbor, Joe Merullo, 68, who retired after 43 years at Sears to play bass in classic rock and party bands, has never registered with a political party. But, he said, he has also never voted for a Democrat for president, starting when he cast his vote for Gerald Ford in 1976. He really wanted Mr. Christie, but without him in the race, Mr. Merullo said, he would vote. for Mrs. Haley with little enthusiasm.

A general election between Trump and Biden would be even worse, he said.

“I don't know what I'm going to do, and it looks like I'm going to be faced with that choice,” he said.

The anti-Trump voice

A lack of passion for Ms. Haley also showed up in the polls before the Iowa caucuses.

The last Iowa Poll from The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom found that only 9 percent of her supporters said they were extremely excited to support her. The poll pointed to a close second place for her, if she could convince her hesitant voters.

She did not and fell to third place on Monday.

Such concerns were evident in interviews with New Hampshire independents who were considering Ms. Haley.

David Fournier, 78, of Nashua, considers himself a lifelong Democrat and said he volunteered for the campaigns of Bill Clinton and Howard Dean. But he is not registered with any political party, he said, so he can retain the flexibility to vote in either party's primaries, depending on the contest.

He is leaning toward casting a vote for Ms. Haley, though he said he would “under no circumstances” support her in November if she wins the nomination.

“It's not a pro-Haley vote, it's a negative Trump vote,” Mr. Fournier said, adding, “Anything that could give him a boost.”

Several attempts are being made to include undeclared voters in the primaries. A new super PAC called Independents Moving the Needle started running Wednesday two ads in New Hampshire, where independent voters are speaking directly to the camera about their support for Ms. Haley. According to AdImpact, a media tracking company, the group has booked more than $200,000 in airtime through Primary Day.

“This is about preserving our democracy, and there is a man who is a threat to democracy,” said Robert Schwartz, who heads another initiative to encourage voters — especially Black voters who participated in the 2020 Democratic primaries — to vote against Mr. Trump in this year's Republican race.

A desire to 'move to Canada'

The interviews were perhaps more encouraging for Mr. Biden than for Ms. Haley.

New Hampshire has since voted for Democratic presidential candidates George W. Bush won the state in 2000.

But the state is still purple, with an all-Democratic congressional delegation but Republican control of the state legislature and governorship, thanks to independent voters like Kathleen Grindle Mack, 64, of Plainfield.

She has never voted for a Republican for president, but has voted for governor, and she plans to endorse Ms. Haley next week, calling her the “least objectionable” option.

The prospect of a rematch between Biden and Trump makes her want to “move to Canada,” she said, but she would likely vote for Biden unless Ms. Haley wins the Republican nomination.

“Trump scares me; Trump scares me,” she said. “I studied European fascism when I was in college, and he could have written a book about it.”

Bob Terrell, 82, a lifelong independent resident of Goffstown, near the Uncanoonuc Mountains, voted for Mr. Trump in 2016. Now, he said, he thinks “Trump is a lunatic.”

On the other hand, there are undeclared voters like Denyce Wallace, 57, of Concord. She supported Mr Trump in 2020 and plans to do so again, saying she saw him as a man of action.

“Maybe I wish there were different candidates to choose from, but I'd rather have someone who's going to say something and then do it,” she said.

DeSantis and Biden in the mix

Of course, not all independents in New Hampshire are deciding between Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley.

Joseph Lombardo, 73, of Windham, near the Massachusetts state line, considers himself independent, although he could not remember how he was registered. He was torn between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis this week.

“It doesn't seem like he's going to do anything different than what Trump did, so why not vote for the original?” he said of Mr. DeSantis.

Richard Bogart, 71, from Tamworth, voted for Trump in 2016 because, he said, the Democratic Party had failed to look after the “poor man and the trade unionist”.

Mr. Biden already won it in 2020, and if Mr. Bogart votes in the primaries on Tuesday, he will write in the president's name even though Mr. Biden will not be on the ballot as Democrats in New Hampshire do not to the party's new primary order.

Mr. Bogart mentioned a significant amount cost of living adjustment in Social Security benefits amid high inflation, and his fears that Republicans could roll back the program.

“Social Security, they always talk about getting rid of it, and he gave me a raise,” he said of Mr. Biden. “That's the best thing any president has ever done for me personally.”

The Haley Believers

Ms. Haley clearly has many potential voters in the vast sea of ​​independents, as evidenced by her opinion rising in the polls to become more competitive with Mr. Trump.

“One thing I liked about Nikki Haley was she stood up and said, 'I'm not a lawyer, I'm an accountant,'” says Thomas Gross, a lifelong independent and retired Air Force officer who lives near Portsmouth. “While I support many of the more liberal social issues, I realized that we need a good economy to finance these issues, such as pay for families with dependent children.”

Ms. Haley must hope that the middle holds in the coming days, including people like Brian Smith, a 68-year-old engineer from Nashua who has a dim view of both political parties or, as he called them, “the two political parties.” businesses.”

In 2020, he said, he wrote in “the most moderate person I could think of.” (He declined to share the name.) In 2024, he would again write up a candidate, perhaps Ms. Haley, if Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden were the two nominees.

But he had high hopes for Ms. Haley, who votes on Tuesday.

“Her time at the United Nations made her a lot more intelligent than I was about the political ramifications of world politics,” he said. “She did pretty well in her home state when she was there.”

He concluded: “She does not behave as extremist as the other people in her party.”

Neil Viddor And Ruth Igielnik reporting contributed.