Americans were aware of intelligence warning of attacks on Ukrainian pipelines
Why it matters: Aid to Ukraine may be in jeopardy.
While some U.S. officials are more comfortable with Ukraine’s covert attacks on Russia, concerns remain about the possibility of a miscalculation by Ukraine in conducting such operations. Sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines was exactly the kind of operation the United States would be concerned about – a token attack with little military value that carries a high risk of disintegrating the alliance supporting Ukraine.
So far that has not happened. Even though Germany and other European countries have learned that Ukraine was involved in the attack on the pipeline, they have increased their military aid.
US officials stressed on Tuesday that there is no certainty about who in the Ukrainian government may have planned or authorized the attack. If it is eventually pinned to senior officials, European attitudes to supporting Ukraine could change.
Background: Ukraine’s control over covert action groups is murky.
The Post withheld some details of the intelligence, including the name of the European country that provided the report to the United States, to protect the sources of the information.
US officials have long acknowledged they were aware of a warning from a European ally about a possible attack on the pipelines, but months after the attack they insisted they were unsure who carried out the attack.
While officials acknowledged there was some early information pointing to Ukraine, they said it was contradicted by other material, essentially saying they did not believe the European warning was a smoking gun.
As the investigation progressed, US and allied officials became more convinced that pro-Ukrainian groups carried out the attack and that parts of the Ukrainian government were somehow involved.
The Post reported that the European intelligence report said the Ukrainian agents involved in the plot to destroy the pipelines reported to General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top military officer.
US officials have still not confirmed General Zaluzhnyi’s involvement. But they said again on Tuesday that they do not believe President Volodymyr Zelensky knew about it. Officials have previously described a system created by the Ukrainian government that isolates Mr Zelensky from covert action programs.
That allows parts of the Ukrainian government to use pro-Ukrainian groups or sympathizers in Russia to carry out covert attacks, and for Mr Zelensky to deny responsibility for such actions.
What’s Next: Europe is still investigating.
The CIA declined to discuss the document or the attack investigation. John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said he would not discuss intelligence issues, stressing that the document was “one that The Washington Post even said was not corroborated by US intelligence agencies.”
Mr Kirby said the United States is still awaiting the results of three ongoing investigations into the Nord Stream sabotage.
Officials say the United States is unlikely to place public blame for the destruction of the pipelines on Ukraine until after those investigations are complete.
Aishvarya Kavi reporting contributed.