Exxon and Chevron are reporting more modest gains as oil and gas prices fall

Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the two largest U.S. oil companies, reported relatively modest earnings growth Friday as they were forced to manage their operations in the face of falling oil and natural gas prices.

The slowing but still strong performance followed record gains in 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fossil fuel prices soaring for much of the year. By the end of 2022, declining demand for fuels in Europe and Asia drove prices down. Refineries continued to perform well, helping Exxon and Chevron to strengthen revenues.

Exxon reported earnings of $11.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to $5.95 billion a year earlier. But it was lower than the $12.8 billion earned in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Chevron fared slightly better, with earnings of nearly $6.6 billion in the first quarter, an improvement from $6.3 billion a year earlier and $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods expressed confidence in the future, though he said the global outlook for energy markets will depend heavily on China’s economic recovery.

“Gasoline demand looks reasonable,” Woods said. “Demand for and transport of aircraft seems to be on an upward trend. Expectations look reasonably healthy.”

Demand for gasoline, diesel and other fuels has increased as the global economy emerges from the pandemic slowdown in 2020 and 2021. But despite higher crude oil and fuel prices for much of last year, the two companies were cautious about investing to increase production.

While both companies have increased production in the Permian Basin, which spans Texas and New Mexico, over the past two years, Chevron’s recent production has fallen short of earlier expectations. Both have put more emphasis on returning cash to shareholders by increasing dividends and buying back their own shares.

“While commodity markets remain uncertain, our approach remains unchanged,” said Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron. “Capital and cost discipline applied to advantage assets in both traditional and new energy companies means a steady return of cash to shareholders.”

Exxon continues to ramp up production in deep waters off Guyana, announcing this week it would move forward with a fifth project there, expected to produce 250,000 barrels of oil per day starting in 2026.

Exxon, Chevron and other oil companies came out of 2022 with record profits after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February drove up crude oil and natural gas prices. But fossil fuel prices have since gradually fallen, despite dwindling US oil supplies, as investors become increasingly convinced that the global economy and energy demand are slowing.

In recent days, the price of oil has fallen below $80 a barrel, after jumping to more than $120 last June. Prices stabilized somewhat after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and their allies, agreed earlier this month to cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day through the end of the year. The actual cuts are about half, a reduction of less than 1 percent in global inventories.

Supply remains robust. Russian oil and gas exports have not fallen nearly as much as experts predicted after European countries began buying less of them. That’s because China, India and other developing countries are buying more Russian oil and gas.

World prices for liquefied natural gas have fallen by 45 percent since the beginning of the year. In the United States, regular gasoline prices are down about 12 percent over the past 12 months, and diesel prices are down 14 percent, according to the AAA motor club. Global demand for oil and LNG is still increasing, but slowly.

The fall in fossil fuel prices is partly due to unusually warm weather in the Northern Hemisphere and particularly in Europe last winter, which reduced demand for natural gas and heating oil. But fears that a global economic slowdown will reduce manufacturing activity have convinced many traders that prices will continue to fall.

There are other reasons why gasoline demand may be weak in the coming years. The International Energy Agency predicted this week that one in five new cars sold globally this year will be electric, up from 2 percent four years ago. The organization said sales of battery-powered vehicles in China, the United States and Europe will accelerate over the course of the decade.

Mr Wirth said that while demand for diesel had declined, demand for jet fuel had increased. “Gasoline demand globally is essentially back to prepandemic levels,” he said. “In Asia, we see demand coming back as China opens up and mobility increases.”