Lily Gladstone for Best Actress? Oscars bettors are betting big.

On February 23, John Richards traveled more than 100 miles to bet on the Oscars. He took a train from Washington, D.C., to Wilmington, Del., then hopped into an Uber car to take him to a truck stop in New Jersey.

Once in that state, where betting is legal, he opened his DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 apps and spent about $1,800 on a series of bets: Lily Gladstone for best actress, “The Creator” for best visual effects, “Maestro” for Best Makeup, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” for Best Animated Feature, “Oppenheimer” for Best Sound and “War Is Over! Inspired by the music of John & Yoko” for best animated short film.

Mr. Richards, a 40-year-old statistician at Red Carpet Rosters, a fantasy league site for film awards, has been betting on the Oscars since 2016. Before his trip to the truck stop in New Jersey, he had already bet $2,750 on this. year awards. In addition to placing multiple bets on Mrs. Gladstone, he placed $70 on Emma Stone as a hedge.

Mr Richards is one of a growing number of Oscar bettors spread around the world. In the United States, where gambling is regulated at the state level, seven states allow it Oscar betting odds: Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey. However, sports betting is allowed 38 states and the District of Columbia. It became legal in 2018 after the Supreme Court overturned a 1992 law banning sports betting. Later that year, the first Oscar Market opened in New Jersey.

Since the outcomes of sports matches are unknown before the matches, allowing bets on them is considered less risky than bets on awards shows, the results of which are determined in advance. PwC, an accounting firm formerly known as PricewaterhouseCoopers, is mapping the votes for the Academy Awards. According to the Academy websiteOnly two PwC partners know the results before they are announced during the Oscar ceremony. In general, employees who have access to confidential information are not allowed to use that information for personal gain, a PwC spokeswoman said.

How many Americans are betting on the Oscars is unknown because the main casino trade association, the American Gaming Association, does not collect data on Oscar betting, but estimates that Americans have spent $10.26 billion on legal online sportsbooks such as Draft Kings and BetMGM. .

BetMGM, which offers legal Oscar betting in four U.S. states as well as Ontario and Puerto Rico, said more than half of Oscar bets this year have been placed on best picture. Sixty-nine percent of these bets are on ‘Oppenheimer’, which opened at +800 in June 2023 (meaning a $100 bet would get you $800 plus your investment). “Oppenheimer,” now a favorite, is trading at -3,000 (which means you need to bet $3,000 to win $100).

Mr Richards watches every nominated film before taking a chance. “I like to trust my gut,” he said. “I want to use the math to support my gut feeling.”

For example, he won $200 by betting on “Moonlight,” a Best Picture underdog in 2016. Similarly, he bet on “CODA,” a Best Picture nominee in 2022, when the odds were 25 to 1. That year he won almost $10,000. general. It’s a very different approach than the way he and others bet on sports, which puts statistics first and feelings a long way off.

Gambling on Oscars is not a new phenomenon, says Brett Abarbanel, executive director of the International Gaming Institute at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “There are betting sites and markets in Europe that have been betting on the Academy Awards for decades,” she said.

BetUS, an offshore sportsbook based in Costa Rica, has been offering Oscar bets for 20 years. “Over the last two to three years, we’ve really seen it grow by leaps and bounds,” said Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS. “During the Academy Awards, we’ll probably be taking bets from more than half the countries on earth.”

Many Americans use offshore books, which are in a legal gray area in the United States. Its legality varies from state to state. “Some view both sides of the activity as illegal, while others view the service provider only as the illegal actor,” Ms. Abarbanel said. Mr Williams says the increased popularity of Oscar betting is driven by the growth of legal betting markets in the United States, most of which do not allow Oscar betting because the Oscars results are determined in advance.

Art betting is less of a numbers game than sports betting: there are no statistics like RBIs and TDs to think about, no injury reports or past games to set precedents, aside from precursor awards shows like the Golden Globes. Mr Williams said opportunities are determined by researching industry trends, critical acclaim and social media. Once set, “the odds move based on how customers gamble,” Mr. Williams said. “Our goal as a sportsbook is to take approximately an equal share of bets on all options. And we do this by adjusting the odds.” This year, Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer are certain, Mr. Williams said.

But according to Mr Williams, Oscars betting is not lucrative for BetUS, and the company often loses money on the bets every year. “If we were in retail, I think they would call that a loss leader,” Mr. Williams said.

The odds can change quickly. Chris Steckman, a fashion company legal counsel who lives in West Hollywood, California, and is betting on the Oscars, pointed out that Fantasia Barrino of “The Color Purple” was the favorite for best actress at Bovada, an offshore sporting event, in September. book, but Ms. Barrino was not nominated. The current favorite is Lily Gladstone.

Mr. Steckman, 33, said he has never had a losing year betting on the Oscars. He earns between $2,500 and $4,000 each year. This year he has wagered about $1,500.

“I like betting on Oscars because it forces me to watch movies I wouldn’t otherwise watch,” Mr. Steckman said. For advice, he also follows Gold Derby, an Oscar prediction website that users can vote on, a subreddit called OscarRace, and a podcast called “The Next Best Picture.” “It’s not a perfect science,” he said.

A cottage industry of Oscar forecasters and advice podcasts has sprung up. This includes “Lighting Camera What is the action?”, a podcast hosted by Tony Coca-Cola (a stage name) and his friends. Tony Coca-Cola has been betting on the Academy Awards in Australia since 2005.

“It’s like stepping up your annual Oscars pool,” he said. Tony Coca-Cola and his friends didn’t take the betting too seriously. “You’re betting on who you want to win, and that’s just a surefire way to lose money,” he said. “But the more we did it, the more we realized that the bookmakers don’t really know what they’re doing in these entertainment markets.” He and his friends try to become the boss by reading Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, watching Gold Derby and analyzing experts.

For advice, Mr. Richards, the statistician, turns to awards such as the SAGS and to Ben Zauzmerthe author of ‘Oscarmetrics’, who created a mathematical Oscar prediction model.

“I don’t condone betting,” Mr. Zauzmer said. “I’m not betting on the Oscars myself.” But the Oscar betting markets are one factor in his prediction model. “Betting markets serve as the wisdom of the audience, and study after study has shown that in many areas, not just the Oscars, the wisdom of the audience has some predictive power,” he said.

What does the industry think of Oscar betting? Gabriel Rossman, a professor of sociology at UCLA, thinks it’s not enthusiastic. (The academy declined to comment.) Dr. Rossman said the movie industry lobbied to prevent a gambling market from existing in 2010: the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a prediction website where people could vote on the value of movies and celebrities. After the industry retreated, it continued as a virtual game with no money involved.

Nevertheless, says Dr. Rossman that betting could be positive for the Oscars. “The Oscars have fallen into such decline because of public interest that anything that draws attention to the Oscars will be good for them,” he said.

Because legal Oscar betting is limited, gamblers looking to wager tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars turn to illegal offshore books and prediction markets.

One man who goes by the gambling name A naked egg, who asked to remain anonymous to separate his personal life from his gambling life, said he bets between $100,000 and $150,000 on the Oscars — money spread across 30 sportsbooks and a few prediction markets. He recently quit his job to become a full-time gambler.

In 2021, he won $28,000 betting on the Oscars. “Every year I try to bet on every category, even the three categories of short films, which are sometimes my favorite to bet on because most people don’t know about those films,” he said. He says it’s wiser not to watch nominated films so personal biases don’t enter into betting decisions, but he doesn’t heed his own advice. “I’m a movie buff,” he said. “I’m just doing my best to separate my feelings.”

Not all Oscar bettors take the markets so seriously. Some place small bets to increase their enjoyment of the show.

“Awards shows can be slow, but when there’s money on the line, I’m much more invested,” says Matt Pondiscio, a 26-year-old self-described “art guy” who lives in New Jersey and bets from $5 to $10 per category.

Mr. Pondiscio, a former film major, started Oscars betting on DraftKings when his fraternity brothers, who bet on NFL games, told him in 2018 that Oscar betting was available. Mr. Pondiscio has not yet won any money betting on the Oscars; he has wagered about $500 over the years and made back about $300.