As Pakistan installs a prime minister, the road ahead looks rocky

Pakistan’s newly elected parliament has approved Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister Sunday, inaugurating his second term in that role and capping weeks of turmoil — and putting into motion a government facing economic and political challenges that are likely to leave the country in turmoil for years to come.

His selection also brings a crossroads in the role of Pakistan’s powerful military, long seen as an invisible hand guiding the country’s politics and previously influencing election results. Analysts say public confidence in Sharif’s government is low.

“The government is seen as doomed,” said Talat Hussain, a political analyst based in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.

Mr Sharif won 201 votes in the national assembly, while his nearest rival, Omar Ayub, a supporter of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, received 92 votes.

Before the voting began, Mr Sharif arrived in the main hall, accompanied by his older brother, Nawaz, who had also been elected to the National Assembly. The two brothers sat together in the front row, a reminder that the elder Sharif, himself a three-time prime minister, remains influential and is likely to wield power behind the scenes.

The proceedings began with a loud protest in support of Mr Khan. Several Khan supporters sat in front of the speaker’s podium to chant slogans; many others waved pictures of Mr Khan as they too shouted slogans in support of the cricket star turned politician.

Mr Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, which he leads with his family and which is currently the military’s preferred party, failed to win the most seats in Pakistan’s national elections a month ago. That honor went to candidates linked to a party led by Mr Khan, which the military had tried to sideline.

Despite this unrest – a fierce rebuke to the military – the PMLN managed to put together a coalition with other major parties to lead the government.

Still, Mr. Sharif’s government will face continued doubts about its legitimacy following mounting accusations that the military tampered with vote counts in dozens of races to tilt them in favor of his party and away from Mr. Khan’s party. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, to overturn.

Najam Sethi, a prominent Pakistani political analyst, said the longevity of the Sharif coalition government depended on the military chief’s support.

“As things stand, the military leadership and the coalition parties have no choice but to stick together because they both stand to lose if one falters. As long as General Asim Munir is army chief, the Shehbaz-led government will survive periods of instability,” Sethi said.

Another challenge: The country’s economy has been teetering on the brink of collapse for years, with inflation hitting a record high last spring. A bailout from the International Monetary Fund has kept the economy afloat, but that program expires this month and the new government will have to secure a new long-term plan from the IMF.

Any potential deal – which Aqdas Afzal, an economist based in Karachi, said would have to be “in the region” of $6 billion to $8 billion – will most likely require new austerity measures that could fuel public frustration.

In parliament, leaders of Mr. Khan’s party have also vowed to serve as a powerful opposition — and possibly a spoiler.

“Our priority will be to free our leaders and bring them to parliament,” Mr Ayub said, referring to Mr Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a former foreign minister who is also jailed.

The party’s supporters, boosted by its election success, may also take to the streets to pressure the government to release Mr Khan, who is serving multiple sentences on charges including leaking state secrets. Mr Khan has pledged to appeal these convictions, which he says are politically motivated, and his party has promised legal challenges to some election results.

The new Prime Minister said after Sunday’s vote that the country faces major challenges, but also offers opportunities. Noting that the economy remained the main challenge, he pledged to attract investments and create a business-friendly environment.

Mr Sharif, whose first term as prime minister came after lawmakers ousted Mr Khan in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, is known for his efficient management. As chief minister of Punjab, the country’s largest province, he oversaw several major infrastructure projects.

Unlike his brother Nawaz, who served as prime minister for three terms and has fallen out with the country’s generals several times, Mr Sharif has been respectful of the military. During his previous term as prime minister, the military further entrenched its role in government and increased its influence on policymaking.

In June 2021, Mr Sharif approved the creation of a governing council aimed at attracting foreign investment, a move widely seen as an attempt by the military to have a more direct say over economic policy. The army chief, General Munir, is a member of that body, the Special Investment Facilitation Council.

Mr. Sharif also approved a policy giving the country’s intelligence agency the power to approve or deny appointments and posts of government officials. That has increased his pervasive influence not only in politics but also in the civil service, analysts say.

In the wake of the election unrest, analysts say the military’s future role is an open question. But most agree that a weak civilian government will make it easier for the generals to reassert their control and exert an even heavier hand politically if they wish.

“Civil-military relations in Pakistan – including relations between the military and society – will not be the same as before,” said Adil Najam, professor of international affairs at Boston University. “What they will become is what concerns every political player in Pakistan and that must also be at the top of the minds of the top brass of the Pakistani military.”