Little expected from new Palestinian Prime Minister

Thursday’s appointment of Muhammad Mustafa as the new prime minister of the Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a nod to international demands for a more technocratic and less corrupt government.

But 69-year-old Mustafa, who was appointed by Mahmoud Abbas, the authority’s president, appears destined to fail in creating the “revitalized Palestinian Authority” that President Biden has called for, several analysts said Thursday in interviews. As a senior adviser to the president, Mr Mustafa represents neither a break with the past nor a threat to the power of Mr Abbas, who at 88 years old is deeply unpopular among Palestinians, especially since the outbreak of the war in Gaza .

“There will be no real change,” said Nasser al-Qudwa, a former Palestinian Authority foreign minister who fell out with Mr. Abbas. “The situation will remain as it was. The decision maker will not change.”

Mr Mustafa, an economist who has worked for the World Bank and heads the Palestine Investment Fund, is due to appoint a new government in the coming weeks, which analysts say will provide a better indication of whether he plans significant changes. Particularly critical, they say, will be the choices of the Ministers of the Interior, Finance and Foreign Affairs, all of whom are close to the authority’s president.

Mr Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, has retained his post under several previous prime ministers despite being elected for only a four-year term in 2005.

His critics are skeptical that Mr. Mustafa will significantly improve the functioning of the Palestinian Authority, which has limited governing powers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and is dominated by Mr. Abbas’s Fatah faction. The country lost control of Gaza to Hamas when its forces were routed during a brief civil war in 2007.

Mouin Rabbani, an expert on Palestinian politics, said Mr Mustafa’s appointment was a retreat from the goal of a reunified Palestinian Authority that could have the support of Hamas, which has significant popularity and credibility among Palestinians acquired through his war against Israel.

To create a Palestinian Authority “that enjoys sufficient credibility in both Gaza and the West Bank, this must emerge from a consensus between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas,” he said. “And I have not seen any indication that the process leading to his appointment is being driven by Palestinians, but by foreign powers, regionally and internationally.”

Mr Rabbani added that elections, if held now, would heavily favor Hamas and undermine the reconciliation between Palestinian factions that must take place before the formation of a new Palestinian Authority with the credibility to rule both the West Bank and Gaza. governance after the elections. war ends.

It is better to form a new government “based on agreement and consensus by all Palestinian factions,” including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Mr. Rabbani said.

Israel and the United States have pushed for a new government that explicitly excludes Hamas and Islamic Jihad. But leading members of Fatah acknowledge that the faction’s credibility will require some accommodation or even power-sharing with Hamas – a position favored by jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti.

An Abbas associate with international credibility like Mr. Mustafa “is exactly what Washington wants,” Mr. Rabbani said. “They operate under the mistaken assumption that the PA can gain credibility by doing what it is doing now, but more efficiently, losing sight of the real basis of legitimacy, which can only be achieved by the Palestinians themselves.”

Ali Jarbawi, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, said Mr Mustafa’s ability to succeed in Gaza depends on reaching agreements with Hamas, which still has a significant presence in the enclave five months after the war. “Without Hamas’ agreement, the country will not be able to do anything in Gaza,” he said.

The government, Mr. Jarbawi said, was also in dire need of a major injection of foreign aid. “Without money, the government will not be able to provide for the people, including paying the full salaries of its employees,” he said. “We need help from the outside world.”

Kayed Meari, founder of a Palestinian research institution called the Witness Center for Citizen Rights and Social Development, said Mr Mustafa is “a good choice in terms of the concept of gradual change in the Palestinian Authority system,” but that he wouldn’t do. bring about ‘core changes’.

“Citizens generally view him as a continuation of Abu Mazen’s regime,” Mr Meari said. But the situation for Palestinians is now so bleak, he added, that if Mr. Mustafa can at least restore full payment of salaries to government officials or at least establish a symbolic stamp of the Palestinian Authority on the humanitarian aid to Gaza, he would gain popularity. at least in the short term.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Mr Mustafa mainly blamed Israel for the authority’s problems, saying that while “the Palestinian Authority can do better in terms of institution building”, it “It is difficult to do this under occupation.”

He added that after the Gaza war, “if Israel is committed to a serious process in which the terms are clear and acceptable, we will reciprocate” to establish a “safe, secure and prosperous” independent Palestinian state building so that “our people will live in dignity”. and avoid any necessity for war.”

Regarding Hamas, he said all Palestinians are welcome to join the Palestine Liberation Organization as long as they recognize the previous agreements, including the acceptance of Israel’s right to exist, reiterating Fatah’s long-standing position. “I would like to see all Palestinians united around this agenda,” he said.

That seems out of reach at the moment, given Hamas’ stated desire to destroy the State of Israel.

Adam Sella reporting contributed.