Will Haley or a lawsuit bring down Trump? For now, our poll says no.

Donald J. Trump still leads in the race for the Republican nomination.

By a lot.

In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll on Wednesday, he has a 64-11 lead over Nikki Haley, with Ron DeSantis in third place with 9 percent.

Does the poll give any indication that Ms. Haley or a criminal trial will bring down Mr. Trump, as our headline asks?

No, but given the latest news, let’s take a look anyway.

Legal issues

With Mr. Trump leading his closest rival by more than 50 points, it will likely take something unprecedented for him to lose the nomination.

But all year long, something unprecedented has loomed over the race: Mr. Trump’s legal troubles. On Tuesday evening, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible to serve as president under the 14th Amendment. That is unprecedented. And that includes Mr. Trump’s upcoming trial and possible conviction in the middle of the Republican primary season.

I know you’re all wondering about the Colorado case, but our poll was completed before the Colorado ruling and so we couldn’t ask people about it. Realistically, Trump will argue that the decision is just the latest example of unfair treatment by the legal system, and Republican voters will likely side with him as they have done many times before. If the Supreme Court decides he remains eligible, it will mark another victory in the eyes of many Republican primary voters. If the court concludes that he is ineligible, then that’s a different story. Therefore, for the most relevant information, I must refer you to Adam Liptak, our Supreme Court correspondent.

What our poll did ask about was the upcoming criminal trial of Mr. Trump, and the poll gave little indication that it was about to overturn his candidacy.

In fact, 62 percent of Republican primary voters say he should be the party’s nominee even if convicted after winning the primary, while only 32 percent say he should not be the party’s nominee if convicted . There is enough support that it would be a major challenge for Republicans to overturn the results of the primary elections at the convention.

It’s easy to see why these voters might still support Trump even if they were convicted:

Three-quarters of Republican primary voters do not believe Trump will receive a fair trial.
Four-fifths say the charges against him are mainly politically motivated, rather than because prosecutors actually believed he committed a crime.
Three-quarters of Republican primary voters say Trump should be found “not guilty,” and 70 percent say he should be sentenced to prison if found guilty.
Four-fifths say he sincerely believed his claims that the election was stolen.

Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and Republicans say they don’t believe he will be convicted. So it is possible that their attitude will change once a trial starts.

But while things could certainly change, it’s notable that the charges themselves certainly haven’t hurt him.

Nikki Haley

As we mentioned a few weeks ago, Ms. Haley is becoming Trump’s main rival, thanks to her natural appeal among Trump-skeptical, moderate and highly educated Republicans.

In this particular poll, that’s exactly how she overtook Mr. DeSantis and claimed an (extremely distant) second place. Consider her lopsided appeal among voters on the fringes of the Republican electorate:

She has 56 percent of Republican primary voters who do not support Mr. Trump against President Biden in the general election, compared to 4 percent of those who favor Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden. DeSantis has just 2 percent of these Non-Trump voters — voters who almost by definition had to be part of a serious coalition to challenge Mr. Trump.
She has the support of 39 percent of college graduates, compared to just 3 percent of those without a degree. (I think I said “wow” out loud when I first saw that.)
Ms. Haley has the support of 19 percent of moderates, compared to 8 percent of conservatives.

A candidate of moderate, highly educated Never Trumpers is not a candidate who will easily convince a populist, working-class MAGA party. In fact, only 42 percent of Republicans have a positive view of Ms. Haley, while a quite significant 28 percent view her negatively.

But Ms. Haley’s narrow base of support might allow her to keep things interesting in states that play to her strengths — especially states with high rates of college graduates and open primaries, where independent voters and even some Democrats might just go to vote.

New Hampshire, where a CBS/YouGov poll last weekend, Ms. Haley gave 29 percent of the vote, is one of those states. Her home state, South Carolina, is a state where Democrats and independents can vote.

Many primaries are limited to self-identified voters who lean Republican or people with a history of voting in Republican primaries (in the Times/Siena poll, all respondents can say they will vote in the Republican primaries). I wouldn’t be surprised if a candidate like Ms. Haley performs slightly better in the polls in states where other types of voters can participate.