Portugal votes in a tight race with a hard right-wing wave

When António Costa, a prime minister well liked by European leaders, was handy won his third term as prime minister in 2022many Portuguese prepared for a lasting, stable government, given the strong majority of its Socialist Party in parliament.

But late last year, Mr. Costa had resignedHis government was embroiled in a corruption investigation involving lithium exploration concessions.

Portugal faces new elections on Sunday. It has raised the prospect that the Socialist Party could lose power for the first time in more than eight years, as well as the possibility of an unstable minority government.

One of the most important changes in the election campaign is the rise of an extreme right-wing populist party.

What caused the vote?

Mr Costa resigned in November after the opening of a corruption investigation into concessions for lithium exploration, hydrogen production and data center construction.

Lithium is crucial to helping the European Union transition to clean energy, and the bloc is particularly dependent on imports from China.

In Portugal, lithium exploration was controversial even before the investigation into the granting of concessions and met with public opposition because of the environmental damage the mines could cause.

The investigation now threatens to dampen much-needed foreign investment, says Marina Costa Lobo, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon. “And this could be problematic for Portugal,” she added.

Mr Costa has not been formally charged with any crimes.

In November, he said in televised remarks that “no wrongful act weighs on my conscience,” but added that the “dignity” of the prime minister’s office was incompatible with the suspicions swirling around it.

Who’s running now?

Portugal will elect a new parliament during the early general elections. The Socialist Party is in a close race with the Democratic Alliance, a coalition of center-right parties led by the Social Democratic Party.

The Socialists are expected to win about 28 percent of the vote, according to a tally of polls from Politicoand the Democratic Alliance about 33 percent.

Pedro Nuno Santos, backed by the left wing of the Socialist Party, succeeded Costa as head of the party.

Members of the Social Democratic Party have also been hit by corruption investigations, with the president of a local government recently resigning.

Most surprising is the rise of Chega, a populist right-wing party. Even though Chega is trailing the two mainstream parties, according to a compilation of polls by Politico, a strong election result could make Chega a kingmaker if no other party can secure an outright majority.

Luís Montenegro, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, has ruled out a coalition with Chega. Chega has made tougher penalties for corruption a pillar of his campaign, with billboards reading: “Portugal needs a clean-up.”

If his party comes first, Mr Montenegro could form a minority government, a potentially volatile outcome that experts say may not last long.

How popular is the far right?

Unlike other European countries, Portugal has not seen far-right, anti-establishment parties gain popularity among voters for years.

The rise of Chega, which means “enough” in Portuguese, is changing that, and a strong election result could spell the end of the country’s exceptionalism.

“For us here in Portugal it would be a novelty,” said José Santana Pereira, associate professor of political science at the University Institute of Lisbon.

The party, founded in 2019, received about 1 percent of the vote in the 2019 elections. That rose to about 7 percent in 2022, and the party is now forecast to win 16 percent of the vote, according to a Politico compilation of polls.

What are the main issues at stake?

Despite the corruption investigation and Chega’s emphasis on it in her campaign, many voters seemed most concerned with issues that affect their daily lives, Ms. Costa Lobo said.

With wages persistently low and unable to keep up with inflation, the Portuguese seem to be primarily concerned with the cost of living crisis. House prices have doubled in the past eight years, partly due to tourist rentals, which made real estate unaffordable, especially for the younger generations.

“Housing has become one of the most important issues in the elections,” said Ms Costa Lobo. “Middle-class citizens can no longer rent or buy.”