Why this presidential front-runner is fueling fears of the ‘death of democracy'(Prabowo Subianto Has Tried His Hand At Democratic Politics)

He hoped to succeed Indonesia’s old dictator. He ordered the kidnappings of pro-democracy activists. He was accused of atrocities during the brutal military occupation of East Timor. He has said elections are against his country’s culture.

Still, Prabowo Subianto has tried his hand at democratic politics over the past two decades, adopting different personas in multiple attempts to become Indonesia’s leader.

Now, a month before the next elections, almost every opinion poll shows that 72-year-old Prabowo is in the lead in the first round of voting. His rise, with the help of a running mate who is the son of popular outgoing President Joko Widodo, has alarmed millions of Indonesians who still remember the brutal and kleptocratic rule of Suharto, Mr Prabowo’s former boss and father-in-law. .

A victory for Mr. Prabowo, his critics warn, would revive a dark past.

“What will happen is the death of democracy,” said Hendardi, director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace. Like many Indonesians, he goes by one name. “We have been against Prabowo for a long time,” he added, “and with our limited power we were still able to prevent him from moving forward. But now he has received this support.”

During the campaign, Mr Prabowo, the current defense minister, dismissed concerns about his record.

But he has continued to demonstrate his strongman bona fides. During a presidential debate this month, Mr Prabowo spoke of the need to develop a strong military. Without that army, he said a nation “will be crushed,” just as it was in Gaza today.

He is in a three-way race with Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, and Ganjar Pranowo, who governed Central Java.

To win outright on February 14, Mr Prabowo would need to win at least 51 percent of the vote. Surveys show him well ahead of his rivals, but his support stands at around 46 percent, implying he will likely be forced into a runoff in June and likely face tougher competition.

For years, a Prabowo presidency was considered an unlikely possibility in Indonesia, one of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant democracies.

For many Indonesians, Mr. Prabowo is a symbol of Suharto’s 32-year rule. After Suharto’s ouster in 1998, he was dismissed from the Indonesian army after the armed forces discovered his involvement in the kidnapping and torture of pro-democracy activists. More than a dozen are still missing and feared dead.

Ucok Munandar Siahaan was a 21-year-old student when he disappeared on May 15, 1998. His father, Paian Siahaan, 76, later discovered he had helped detained anti-government activists. He has been pressing authorities for answers for decades.

Every night, Mr. Paian said he prayed the same prayer: “God, please save him.” In recent months he has added another: that Mr Prabowo would not become president.

“I don’t think he will be elected because of our prayers, the prayers of the oppressed people,” he said.

Mr Prabowo’s human rights record – which includes allegations that his feared Kopassus special forces massacred hundreds of people during the crackdown in East Timor – led the United States to ban him from to deny land.

He has never been charged in a criminal court.

In 2014, he presented himself as a military strongman, delivering nationalist speeches but losing to Mr Joko. Five years later, Mr. Prabowo portrayed himself as a devout Muslim and leaned on communal dog whistles, accusing Mr. Joko of secretly being a “Chinese Christian.” He failed again, but claimed he was a victim of election fraud and called on hardline Islamists to protest the results of violent street demonstrations. (Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world.)

In this campaign, Mr. Prabowo tried to shake his reputation for a short temper by portraying himself as a gemoy, or cute, grandfather who dances at gatherings. And he has implicitly won Mr Joko’s support by naming his 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate. Billboards across Indonesia feature cartoons of the chubby, doe-eyed Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran.

Mr. Prabowo was not available for comment, said Budiman Sudjatmiko, the vice chairman of the advisory board of the Prabowo-Gibran campaign team, who was once a fierce critic of Mr. Prabowo. The presidential candidate, he said, had “learned a lot” from the encirclement by Mr Joko and his supporters.

“He is no longer in military service, so he should play a role as a civilian politician – reachable, approachable and friendlier,” said Mr Budiman, who was a political prisoner under Suharto’s regime.

This makeover has taken hold among Indonesian youth, the country’s largest voting bloc. People under the age of thirty did not grow up under Suharto, and many know little about the horrors of his regime because they are not included in the country’s textbooks.

For Defi Afra, a 21-year-old first-time voter who has seen videos of Mr. Prabowo on TikTok: “He is a funny, humorous figure. He also seems nice and friendly.”

Ms. Defi, a student in the city of Yogyakarta, said she only recently learned of Mr. Prabowo’s past on social media. But she shrugged her shoulders and said, “He couldn’t refuse the orders of his superiors.”

The rebuilding of Mr. Prabowo’s image began years ago, when Mr. Joko appointed him defense minister. He emerged as a moderate politician loyal to Mr Joko, who was known for his down-to-earth style and ability to work with politicians from different parties. The appointment also allowed Mr. Prabowo to re-enter the United States.

But Mr. Prabowo’s tenure in that position was marred by setbacks, including a failed attempt to buy second-hand fighter jets and a failed food security program.

Mr Joko initially appeared to support his party’s candidate, Mr Ganjar, the former Central Java official. In October, Mr. Gibran joined Mr. Prabowo’s ticket. The alliance, critics say, is an attempt by Mr. Joko to increase his influence over Indonesian politics by grooming his son for the presidency. For now it has the popularity of Mr. Prabowo enlarged even further.

“It’s very depressing,” said Goenawan Mohamad, the founder of Tempo, a leading investigative magazine.

Mr Prabowo, according to Mr Budiman, wants an Indonesia that is “more just and fairer socio-economically”, pointing to his proposal for free milk in schools and his plan to transform Indonesia, whose economy is driven by raw materials, into a “digital country”. nation.”

Mr. Prabowo was born into one of Indonesia’s most prominent political families. His father, Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, fled Indonesia in the 1950s after being accused of supporting an uprising against the government. Mr. Prabowo spent his early years in England and Switzerland and later attended the Indonesian Military Academy. In the 1980s he married a daughter of Suharto, although they separated about fifteen years later.

According to local news media reports, he is said to have amassed a fortune of approximately $130 million. His brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo, himself a tycoon, helped found the Gerindra party in the late 2000s, which has become the vehicle for Mr. Prabowo’s political ambitions.

In June, he explained why he was once again vying for the presidency.

“I feel like God has given me many blessings, advantages and benefits,” he told a television host. “I have been given the opportunity to understand the problem of this nation.”

But many villagers across Indonesia have a different opinion. In 2020, Mr Joko put Mr Prabowo in charge of a program aimed at curbing the country’s dependence on food imports.

In Desa Talekung Punei village, the government said it wanted to free up about 20,000 hectares of forest land to grow rice. No feasibility studies were done to see if the land was suitable for growing rice, said Ihwan, a resident and activist for a nonprofit organization.

Residents opposed the plan, saying they depended on the forest for their livelihood. Still, the Ministry of Defense sent teams to clear areas of land. When the seeds arrived, they were expired and full of bugs, Ihwan said. The country is now deserted.

Rin Hindryati And Hasya Nindita reporting contributed.