In a mutiny or coup d’état, the struggle to convince and choose a side is crucial
Coups are the ultimate fake-it-til-you-make-it aspiration. Talk to experts and they will tell you that the main task of coup plotters is to convince other soldiers and officers that success is assured, and that therefore throwing their fate into the putsch is the path of sensible self-interest.
Those early moments of persuasion are so important because it is very dangerous to be on the losing side of a coup. Failed conspirators often risk jail or worse. But those who support a failed government are often ousted from power – and potentially subject to retaliation from whoever takes over.
The smart move is to pick the winning side, if you can figure out which one it will be. So coup plotters tend to follow a predictable playbook to achieve their success Look assured until it is real: a massive show of force, coupled with public statements from senior officials, to show that the military and other elites support the plot.
Coup leaders usually seize key media outlets and shut down the rest so they can create a public image of undisputed success. Then, if they can, they often seize the deposed leaders themselves to prevent them from rallying supporters for them.
Signs, on the other hand, that powerful people do not support for a coup are often enough to prevent its success. This helps explain why there is so much interest in whether and when the Russian government could have arrested General Sergei Surovikin.
Surovikin posted a video message early in the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin last weekend, who denounced it and warned others not to get involved. That most likely indicated to others within the military, even if they might have sympathized with the mutineers’ demands, that the uprising was unlikely to succeed—a major blow to any odds it might have had.
But if he is now arrested or detained, as some reports indicate, suggesting that Russian officials may believe he actually supported the mutiny at some point. That raises questions about why he released the video denouncing it, and what would have happened if he hadn’t.
The facts from Russia are still emerging, but you don’t have to wait to learn more about how coups work – or don’t – in general. Pick up two smart books from the experts I spoke to on Monday column: “Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups,” by Naunihal Singh, and “How to Prevent Coups: Counterbalancing and Regime Survival”, by Erica De Bruin.
You also don’t have to wait to learn about the rules of political physics in Russia. “People of Putin”, by Catherine Belton, traces how Putin and other former members of the KGB rose to power and made a profit after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And “Between two firesby Joshua Yaffa, looks at how a middle layer of fighters navigate Putin’s Russia, where the government can offer benefits and threaten punishment if necessary.
In “The future is history”, who won a National Book Award in 2017, Masha Gessen argues that Putin has consolidated his control by returning to totalitarianism. And this week in The New Yorkerswrote Gessen of the most striking consequence of Prigozhin’s uprising: that it showed the Russian public that there may be other choices than Putin, after decades of reporting that he was the only one who could or did wield power.
But Julia Ioffe, writes in Puk, provides an important warning. “The siloviki, the men of the various security forces, could be the source of future uprisings, but this weekend they showed that their chances of success are slim indeed,” she wrote. “It’s probably best to lie low – lower, as the Russian saying goes, than the grass, quieter than the water.”
Reader Responses: What you read
Logan Matthew Stickler, a reader in Huntington, WV, recommends:The shadow map‘, by Stephen Vladeck:
This newly released title follows the ways the Supreme Court has used procedural orders to settle controversial issues and create new laws without ruling on any legal merits. He puts this in the context of the court’s larger history, showing how this behavior has changed dramatically over the past 50 years (and especially since Trump’s presidency).
I found myself captivated by his analysis even when I wasn’t actively reading, which was rare as I could barely put it down.
What are you reading?
Thank you to everyone who has written to tell me what you read. Keep the submissions coming!
I want to hear about things you’ve read (or watched or listened to) about status. That could mean more novels for my Summer of Snob reading list, but I’m also looking for your suggestions for more scholarly works on clout, caste, and power.