Somalia faces a ‘crucial year’ as crises unfold on several fronts
A ten-year defense and economic agreement with Turkey to protect its maritime coast and strengthen its naval power. An agreement with the United States to build five military bases for more than $100 million. An enhanced defense cooperation agreement with Uganda to strengthen the fight against the terrorist group Al Shabab.
The three security pacts signed by Somalia in recent days underline the increasing dangers the Horn of Africa country faces both internally and externally.
Internally, the country faces the persistent threat from Al Shabab, an affiliate of Qaeda that has remained resilient even as the December departure date of African Union peacekeepers – whose offensives have put the group on the back foot – looms.
Equally worrying are tensions between Somalia and its western neighbor, Ethiopia, over Somalia’s coastline – the longest in mainland Africa – which threatens to spark a new conflict on a vital global shipping route in an increasingly volatile region.
Somalia faces “a pivotal year,” said Omar S. Mahmood, senior East Africa analyst for the International Crisis Group. “A number of crucial timelines related to both domestic politics and security are coinciding, and how these are handled will determine the trajectory of the country.”
Somalia’s latest challenges and how they are resolved will likely define the presidency – and legacy – of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Since take office in May 2022, Mr Mohamud has continued to improve stability in Somalia, a country of 18 million people decimated by decades of civil war. hungry And terrorism.
His government did that secured billions of dollars in debt relief, convinced the UN Security Council to do so lift a decades-long arms embargo and formal connected the East African Community trading bloc.
In the Somali capital Mogadishu, cranes building new apartments tower above the skyline and three-wheeled rickshaws drive bumper to bumper on newly paved roads. Young couples holding hands gather in parks, restaurants and malls to dine and take selfies, a sign of a gradual progress toward tranquility in recent years.
But so is Mr. Mohamud’s tenure hampered by a severe droughtfollowed by heavy rain and flooding, leaving millions of people facing a serious humanitarian crisis. Increased inflation, rising food prices and declining exports have also hurt the country’s economic growth.
Amid mounting problems, Mr Mohamud now faces a major challenge from Ethiopia, one of Africa’s largest countries.
On January 1, landlocked Ethiopia signed a preliminary contract with Somaliland giving it commercial and maritime access to its territory as part of Ethiopia’s goal to gain access to the sea.
In return, Somalilanda self-declared breakaway republic in northwestern Somalia, said Ethiopia would become the first country to formally recognize it as an independent nation.
The deal angered Somalia, which still considers Somaliland part of its territory, with Mr Mohamud accusing Ethiopia of seeking to ‘annex’ part of his country.
“Ethiopia cannot take a piece of land from Somalia by force,” Mr. Mohamud said last week, slamming his hand on his desk during an interview in his office in Mogadishu.
Mr Mohamud said Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had called him the night before the port deal was announced, but only told him that Somaliland’s leader would go to Ethiopia. A spokeswoman for Mr. Abiy did not respond to a request for comment.
“This is madness,” Mr Mohamud added. “If Ethiopia continues to pursue that, Somalia has the right to defend itself by any means necessary.”
Experts warn that rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia could plunge the region into chaos – not least as Ethiopian forces operate in Somalia and along the border between the two countries to stave off Al Shabab.
Relations between the two countries came under further strain in mid-January after Somalia turned away a Syrian Airlines flight carrying officials from Ethiopia to Somaliland, which claimed its independence in 1991.
In February, Mr. Mohamud accused Ethiopian security personnel block him of attending the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia – accusations that Ethiopians deny.
Western officials have tried to get the two countries to engage in talks to defuse hostility, but Somali officials have rejected any discussion, believing Ethiopia is not interested in reconciliation.
Amid the standoff, Somalia last week ratified a ten-year agreement with Turkey, this will include protecting its more than 3,000 kilometers of coastline against ‘external threats’.
Somali officials insist the agreement predated ongoing tensions with Ethiopia. However, observers say the way it was quickly approved by the Cabinet, passed by Parliament and signed by Mr Mohamud indicates how eager Somalia is to find a strong ally to help them stand up to Ethiopia, which has one of the strongest armies in Africa.
Turkey has been involved in Somalia for more than a decade, training police and military officers, building roads, providing scholarships and channeling millions of dollars in aid.
Observers say the latest deal will allow Turkey to expand its military presence in the Horn of Africa and consolidate its place in a corridor where world powers, as well as Middle Eastern countries, are trying to gain a foothold. The corridor has become treacherous for commercial ships during the war between Israel and Hamas.
“The challenge, however, is that external actors tend to come with their own interests and baggage, which can then make untangling regional disputes much more difficult,” said the Crisis Group’s Mr Mahmood.
Outside Ethiopia, the threat from the Shabab, which wants to establish an Islamic state, also threatens Somalia.
The group remains a threat, aimed at citizens and civil servants. In January, the Shabab captured a UN helicopter and took six passengers, incl four UkrainiansAccording to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, he has been taken hostage.
The group also took responsibility this month for an attack that killed four Emirati and Bahraini security officers at a military base in Mogadishu.
The Shabab remains powerful even in the face of large-scale, American-backed offensive who launched Mr Mohamud’s government when he came to power.
The group lost territory and soldiers in an initial phase of the campaign in central Somalia, experts and Somali officials say. Logistical and weather-related challenges have delayed a second phase aimed at removing it from southern Somalia, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, the country’s defense minister, said in an interview.
While the government has built schools and clinics in some liberated areas, Mr. Nur acknowledged that in other areas they have been unable to provide basic services and security.
Concerns about the country’s security and the preparedness of the Somali army are mounting after the mandate for African Union peacekeepers to remain in the country expires at the end of this year.
Mr. Nur said officials are still trying to determine how to replace the multinational force, possibly with other foreign forces, and how to finance such an undertaking.
This month, the US government stepped up its support for the military by promising to do so build five bases in five different cities. The bases are for the Danab Brigade, an elite unit accompanied by American Special Operations troops, whose name means ‘lightning’ in Somali. It has emerged as an effective fighting force against the Shabab.
But the brigade, expected to have 3,000 members, is hampered by logistical challenges, including heavy rains and flooding, as well as battling the Shabab, who authorities say commands 7,000 to 12,000 fighters on many fronts, Major Aydarus Mohamed Hussein, the unit’s leader, said in an interview.
“But whatever happens, we will keep going because defeat is Al Shabab’s fate,” he said.
For now, many Somalis hope that local and regional tensions will not plunge the country into new chaos.
“Our security must be protected,” said Khadija Abdullahi, a 22-year-old student at the University of Mogadishu. “We are afraid that there will be crises and problems that will disrupt our lives.”
Hussein Mohammed contributed reporting from Mogadishu.